Karl #1; 100kts in 72 hours, past 25N in 120

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /karl.html

Finally, something that shouldn't affect any land other than the omnipresent outside shot at the Azores.

[jpigott]

question - i know early in Frances' life some of the models had her making an early turn north and we all know what happened thereafter. Is it within the realm of possibility (I guess anything is this season) that Karl stays far enough south that this trough does not pick him up and he continues on westward due to the strengthening ridge

[ncweatherwizard]

The farthest west model within reason (to me) is NOGAPS. The trough is well-defined in this situation, so the likelihood of the trough not weakening the ridge is pretty low. I will give you this though: if Karl moves slower than some of the globals (like UKMET) indicate, then it could eventually do something like Kate or Nicholas did last year...stall out after making a northeastward turn then bend back to the west. But in these situations, the storm almost always ends up far enough north to get caught by the next trough.