Like it or hate it

[Josephine96]

Do you like or hate the NHC's 5 day forecast..

I like it because it gives me a chance to potentially prepare or to watch the storm more closely..

[lilbump3000]

I like it but i dont really put any trust in it. I barely put trust in the 3 day forecast.

[bfez1]

I like it. It gives you a general idea of what to expect.

[Cookiely]

I hate it because the error margin is so large that it is virtually worthless and causes great anxiety. Just my opinion.

[mascpa]

I like it because it gives me a general idea on what the experts think could happen. Gives you a very general idea. But people should remember that it has a large degreee of uncertainty and not get all excited just because they're in the five day cone.

[Josephine96]

True.. the 3 day cone would be more concerning than the 5 day cone..

[adelphi_sky]

I like it but wish they would put the pressure reading in the legend box.

[Anonymous]

I hate it. NHC doesn't have the technology to make accurate predicitions that far out. If you ever watch the general 5 -7 extended forecast for more understood large scale weather systems you will see they frequently change in arrival time or strength. For small scale tropical systems the error is very high,
The stress and economic impact is severe as we have just witnessed with Ivan & Florida.
No matter what NHC says people will always focus on the center dotted line, even here today check out

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=45955

A 3 day forecast is fine in 2004 with a extended outlook and no dotted lines.
I see no other way than to go back to this system, & after the season I am sure the NHC will get much flack from various goverments regarding the cost and loss of revenue due to the 5 day.
In addition the notion that its great to be prepared even if the storm doesn'thit, is a exuse. Most people can't afford to pack up, board up, & leave for a motel hundreds of miles away with days off receiving no pay when they return. We have seen a huge amount of people stuck in rest areas and they state they have not the funds to motel it, eat out, pay for plywood at $27.00 a sheet....

A good idea ahead of its time, the 5 day

~ Mike

[CDO]

Has the 5 day forecast impoved any since its inception? I generally ignore it except to see how the forecasts are trending in the long term from advisory to advisory, but I was curious if the 5-days are improving. Has anyone measured this?

[Chuck Waters]

It may not be completely accurate, but one steps towards increasing accuracy and understanding storm movement is to predict it, see what actually happens and compare the real movement with your models.

I guess the real question should be "Should the 5 day forecast be shown to the general public". Frankly, the general public doesn't understand that it's an educated guess and they take it for gospel.

[patsmsg]

It may not be nearly as reliable as the 3 day forecast, but it IS additional information of a best-guess nature. I voted that I like it, because I don't want to lose it.

[wxwatcher2]

It's a good "estimate" and has an error of about 350 miles.

[crazycajuncane]

I think it sucks. In fact, I saved each forecast from the NHC and noticed how many times they changed the track on Ivan.

It started out as the Flordia Keys, then Tampa Bay, then Pensacola, then New Orleans, then Mobile, then Biloxi.........

That's way too much error. 5 day forecast puts everyone on the gulf coast in harms way.

They might as well stick to the 3 day forecast and state verbally where they think it will continue on.

Ever forecaster duing Ivan and Frances said that the 5 day forecast is always iffy, because different things happen that can change the course of the Hurricane.

Keep the 3 day and avoid mass chaos along the gulf coast.