LLC Running NW of Coast?

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MWatkins
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LLC Running NW of Coast?

#1 Postby MWatkins » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:17 am

Looking at the latest visible it looks like the low center is emerging from the coast and heading NW? Hard to tell for sure...but if that is the case we will know within the next couple of hours.

Am I just hopped up on Dayquil...or am I seeing this right?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

MW
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#2 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:18 am

If the LLC is emerging.. than Jeanne will survive because the center is back over the warm Atlantic waters
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Give credit when credits due...

#3 Postby Windtalker » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:19 am

Did I call this or what??? :lol:
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Re: LLC Running NW of Coast?

#4 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:19 am

MWatkins wrote:Looking at the latest visible it looks like the low center is emerging from the coast and heading NW? Hard to tell for sure...but if that is the case we will know within the next couple of hours.

Am I just hopped up on Dayquil...or am I seeing this right?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

MW


If this is the case mike Will she re-Wrap in your opinion?
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#5 Postby mascpa » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:20 am

Damn Mike, I believe you are right. It'll be interesting to see what they say at 5 pm and 11 pm.
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#6 Postby tracyswfla » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:20 am

I anticipate Jeanne being a very bad girl! :D
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#7 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:21 am

Jeanne could become a very bad girl if she stays in the water long enough
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#8 Postby Aquawind » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:22 am

Looks naked if it is.. :eek:

12Z GFS 90hours..Looks like it's further east... :D

Although it is the GFS..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
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#9 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:25 am

Sorry, I don't see it, maybe been looking to long! Please give me
approx lat/longs! Thanks
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#10 Postby Huckster » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:26 am

MW you beat me to it!
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#11 Postby opera ghost » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:27 am

Just like my husbands Aunt Jean... Stays around LONG past her welcome and just keeps annoying everyone in her chaotic path.... Oy.
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#12 Postby LCfromFL » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:29 am

Blown_away wrote:Sorry, I don't see it, maybe been looking to long! Please give me
approx lat/longs! Thanks


Blown....look around 21N 72W
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#13 Postby darinflorida » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:30 am

NO...Look at the time and date of the sat picture. Everything is going on fine, and then BAM. The time on the sat picture changes to 11:45 UTC. In addition, check out the lat and long lines on the photo. At one moment they are somewhere around 25 or so, next thing you know, as it jumps to 11:45 utc, the lines are around 10 or 15.

Sorry............Now that link is showing something different. Now it does show it going to the NW. I am so confused at this moment.
Last edited by darinflorida on Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#14 Postby Foladar » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:31 am

How will this affect Jeanne ? can you tell us in english for the nonsmart weather people? :)
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#15 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:32 am

Josephine96 wrote:If the LLC is emerging.. than Jeanne will survive because the center is back over the warm Atlantic waters


not if the convectiion doesnt re-fire or get underneath
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Re: LLC Running NW of Coast?

#16 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:33 am

MWatkins wrote:Looking at the latest visible it looks like the low center is emerging from the coast and heading NW? Hard to tell for sure...but if that is the case we will know within the next couple of hours.

Am I just hopped up on Dayquil...or am I seeing this right?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

MW


dayquill + co-tylenol = no effects from cold
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#17 Postby stormernie » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:34 am

It is emerging - however, this is pretty weak and on life support right now, if it doesn't increase in thunderstorm activity then it will be written off. It's at approxmately 20N 72W -- also the shear has really pick up and the southern inflow has been cut off by the mountains. I give it a 40% chance of survivial.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 92W.INVEST,
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#18 Postby HurricaneQueen » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:34 am

I think the Dayquil effect is wearing off on some of us. On Mike's link, the Floater starts on Jeanne for a frame or two and then jumps to Karl. Wow. Definitely have been watching too many loops or in serious need of sleep or both!!!
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#19 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:37 am

The last few GHCC VIS frames show the LLC has rapidly organized just off shore. All we need is a burst of storms over the center and its back to the races.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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agreed ... very weak LLC

#20 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:38 am

It does appear that a very weak LLC is emerging just off the coast of Hispaniola, roughly at the border between Haiti and the DR. Unless she can re-wrap some convection quickly and/or maintain her structure for another 12 hours, she's toast. We'll see what happens this afternoon.
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