Basically...this is an unbelievable setup synopticly. We have SO many variables in place that once again the NHC may be in a position that IF Jeanne survives...the 5 day track forecast could bust by 500 miles.
I mean...come on! The 12Z european and the GFS both take Jeanne to the EAST and out to sea...seemingly not merging with Ivan anymore but instead with Karl. Given that Jeanne is now attrracted to a different hurricane...this sounds more like a soap opera than a weather message.
In any case...things could get dicey if Jeanne survives and manages to push up some deep convection. But the odds of Jeanne hitting the FL coast as a hurricane are about the same right now as Ivan going back over the Atlantic and coming back to Florida (ha ha the ETA solution!) as a hurricane.
I suppose if either were to happen it would happen this season.
Basically the NHC in the most recent advisory is saying "UNCLE" we don't know!
Jeanne has a 60/40 chance of becoming a remant low in the next 24-48 hours. After that...all bets are off.
MW
NHC Cries Uncle...
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dennis1x1 wrote:well joe bastardi said both will happen......and joe bastardi is God.
Although I could see an extreemly small probability of that happening...I would find it hard to believe that JB is forecasting that. He may of mentioned this as a part of his 108 different outcomes...but I doubt that Ivan and Jeanne both hitting Fl as hurricanes is his actual forecast.
MW[/b]
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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Chilly_Water
- Tropical Storm
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Green, you don't know God? Geez.(j/k)
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... e=jb_where
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... e=jb_where
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Juno Beach
- Tropical Low
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As a Penn State alum, I'm not going to knock Joe. Question though, does he have some legitimate long standing feud with the NHC or other weather related services? Or is he just an arrogant pr**k that thinks he's always right and can't admit ever being wrong?
Another question - anyone know if he was ever on "Weather World" on PBS in Pennsylvania? I heard that after about 30 years, the show was being taken off the air. I was wondering if he was ever one of the hosts.
As a kid, I remember my father HAD to watch Weather World every night (I think it was on at 6:30). Mondays were special because it was followed by "TV Quarterbacks" with Joe Paterno.
Another question - anyone know if he was ever on "Weather World" on PBS in Pennsylvania? I heard that after about 30 years, the show was being taken off the air. I was wondering if he was ever one of the hosts.
As a kid, I remember my father HAD to watch Weather World every night (I think it was on at 6:30). Mondays were special because it was followed by "TV Quarterbacks" with Joe Paterno.
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MannyG
Read the discussion and I think the NHC is giving up on 5 day forecast for right now. Love it when they said "The UKMET and NOGAPS show a slow westward drift for 4 and 5 days while the GFDL and GFS show a northeast or eastward motion." only to leave Jeanne at the same spot for 3 days.
Translation, we don't know which models to believe so we are going to leave it at 29.0 N 75.0 W at the 72, 96, and 120 hour mark. We are tired and exhausted from the last few weeks and are gonna take a rest, see what the models say a few hours from now and if they are still undecided we will play rock, paper, scissors to decide whether we are going to move it east or west.
Translation, we don't know which models to believe so we are going to leave it at 29.0 N 75.0 W at the 72, 96, and 120 hour mark. We are tired and exhausted from the last few weeks and are gonna take a rest, see what the models say a few hours from now and if they are still undecided we will play rock, paper, scissors to decide whether we are going to move it east or west.
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southerngale
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green...Joe Bastardi writes an excellent discussion and explains everything well. I've never read his stuff just to get a forecast. He explains the patterns, synoptics, etc. all that stuff that allows the average reader to have a clue about what's going on. He explains the variables needed for this solution and the variables needed for that solution, etc. When I read his discussions, I always enjoy them. He's been on Fox News and MSNBC recently discussing the latest hurricane threats. I think the Joe B. bashers are just jealous. 
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Juno Beach wrote:As a Penn State alum, I'm not going to knock Joe. Question though, does he have some legitimate long standing feud with the NHC or other weather related services? Or is he just an arrogant pr**k that thinks he's always right and can't admit ever being wrong?
JB does have a long standing feud with the NHC, but it's FAR from legit...
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It is very obvious that, this season, the NHC has run into so very many variables that the number crunchers did not consider!
Boy oh boy!
Do you think that our esteemed government will consider emergency funding for more research and re-design of our meteorological computing models, or just leave it to the private sector, like Accuweather or small interests like the "crack" team that WFTV (Orlando) put together to verify/second guess the NHC during Frances' He!! week?
Boy oh boy!
Do you think that our esteemed government will consider emergency funding for more research and re-design of our meteorological computing models, or just leave it to the private sector, like Accuweather or small interests like the "crack" team that WFTV (Orlando) put together to verify/second guess the NHC during Frances' He!! week?
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ColdFront77
greeng13 wrote:ok...i know i am a newbie...so please be somewhat nice...but just who is joe bastardi?!
Joe Bastardi has been with Accu-Weather for quite a few years. I used to hear him on WBZ NewsRadio 1030-Boston quite a bit when I lived in southeastern Massachusetts. He is now in charge of accuweather.com.
As Kelly mentioned, he has been on MSNBC and Fox News Channel covering this years tropical cyclones. I haven't seen him on MSNBC in recent days, perhaps Fox News got the rights to Accu-Weather, but at the same time are sticking with WSI (Weather Service Inc.)... which is located in a northwestern suburb of Boston.
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Stormsfury
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