Jeanne Strengthening....? (Latest Vortex Indicates)

[recmod]

Latest Vortex:

751
URNT12 KNHC 172210
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/2210Z
B. 20 DEG 08 MIN N
71 DEG 47 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 041 DEG 45 NM
F. 108 DEG 49 KT
G. 041 DEG 045 NM
H. EXTRAP 1000 MB
I. 23 C/ 461 M
J. 24 C/ 459 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0511A JEANNE OB 19
<b>MAX FL WIND 49 KT N QUAD</b> 2131Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

[Scorpion]

Omg 49 kt winds run for your life! Lol seriously though Jeanne is a speck of dust and has no chance of becoming a major hurricane.

[tronbunny]

I can't get behind that reasoning, just yet..

The question here should be, is this a valid "vortex" message?
As I can't seem to figure out where the vortex is.

Is this valid as dropsonde, recco observation, upper-air synoptics...yes
But "vortex", no...
So this may be valuable as one of the above, but I'd think more data would help to answer the question.

[ColdFront77]

It doesn't matter whether or not Jeanne becomes a major hurricane. A tropical storm or minimal hurricane affecting Florida or affecting anywhere along the United States coast will be interesting no matter how you slice it.

All tropical cyclones, including depressions can bring a lot of water with them, of course even more the slower they move.

[recmod]

Well, in any case, I think the last two "Vortex", "Dropsonde", "Recco Observation" or "Upper-air synoptics" report that the NHC issued as a "Vortex Data Message" indicates that Jeanne seems not to be dissipating as many others have posted on the board. With a central pressure dropping and winds being measured higher (no, certainly not time to head for the hills)....I think it's logical to say that this storm has something more in its future. In my opinion, Jeanne is not finished.

--Lou

[MWatkins]

Well, in any case, I think the last two "Vortex", "Dropsonde", "Recco Observation" or "Upper-air synoptics" report that the NHC issued as a "Vortex Data Message" indicates that Jeanne seems not to be dissipating as many others have posted on the board. With a central pressure dropping and winds being measured higher (no, certainly not time to head for the hills)....I think it's logical to say that this storm has something more in its future. In my opinion, Jeanne is not finished.

--Lou

Lou...100% agree...it needed to seperate a little from the DR and regain some deep convection and it has done both today.

Now...we once again play the wonderful wonderful waiting game.

MW

[tronbunny]

<snip>....I think it's logical to say that this storm has something more in its future. In my opinion, Jeanne is not finished.

--Lou

You DO have a right to your opinion.
I have not taken any additional time to decode other readings, yet.
So, I cannot discount your point.

That said, I guess I better get to work, if I want to debate...
(not that I do)

[clueless newbie]

Latest Vortex:

751
URNT12 KNHC 172210
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/2210Z
B. 20 DEG 08 MIN N
71 DEG 47 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 041 DEG 45 NM
F. 108 DEG 49 KT
G. 041 DEG 045 NM
H. EXTRAP 1000 MB
I. 23 C/ 461 M
J. 24 C/ 459 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0511A JEANNE OB 19
<b>MAX FL WIND 49 KT N QUAD</b> 2131Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

That wind was 45NM NE of the center. More important is how are the winds close to the center, those determine whether she survives.

Right now she is still affected by westerly shear and is not able to wrap the convection. Hopefully, it will stay so, but I would not bet on it.