18Z GFS...Ivan Remnants out to Sea

[MWatkins]

Hmmmm...seems like the 18Z GFS wants to cut off a small piece of Ivan and leave him behind...but phase most of the former hurricane with the trough moving away from the US as a monster ridge builds.

IF Jeanne survives and if this verifies...and Jeanne doe not get tugged out a bit before getting left behind...and if two trains leave Chicago...one going east at 25 mph and the other...

Aw forget it. Not going to cover every scenario...let's see what happens...

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

Mike please continue to explain the rest of what you were trying to say. This sounds corny but I really really enjoy reading your analysis of things. If you feel that it might become tiresome then dont worry about it, but I would appreciate it.

<RICKY>

[MWatkins]

Ok...sorry...just getting a little tired with such a large model spread. Feel like I am chasing my tail.

The 18Z GFS leaves Jeanne behind and leaves ultimately stationary for a long time...well beyond the 120 forecast period.

The 12Z UKMET slices Ivan in two sending much of it to the north and the rest to the south rapidly making way for high pressure. It brings Jeanne north then pushes it back to the south and in the Central Bahamas in 144 hrs.

Now even the Canadian...which has been calling for a recurve...is stalling Jeanne in 72 hours and building a huge ridge.

NOGAPS takes Jeanne in over SC basically leaving Ivan where it is right now.

The GFDL is out to sea and so is the 12Z Euro.

Ahhhhhh!

I will be much better tomorrow...I feel much better but am short on sleep....with Jeanne no immediate threat I'm sleeping in tomorrow.

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

Thanks Mike I appreciate it. Get some rest and I look forward to having you back on tomorrow.

<RICKY>

[tronbunny]

I will be much better tomorrow...I feel much better but am short on sleep....with Jeanne no immediate threat I'm sleeping in tomorrow.

MW

I believe that is what the models forecast and decided to do the "sleeping in" today!

[Foladar]

The NHC i think, or one of the models (the local mets said this) said that Jeanne would/could sit there for 30 (yes, thirty) days stationary :|

[Aquawind]

Thanks Mike.. One thing I am confident about is..this will be a nice weekend with little cone threat for us in South Florida..Good for both sleeping and beaching for a change..

[WeatherEmperor]

The NHC i think, or one of the models (the local mets said this) said that Jeanne would/could sit there for 30 (yes, thirty) days stationary :|

Sit in the same spot for 30 days? lol it cant be possible. It would cause massive upwelling and cause its own demise well within that time period.

<RICKY>

[Weatherboy1]

Thanks Mike.. One thing I am confident about is..this will be a nice weekend with little cone threat for us in South Florida

You're right ... we're not in a cone. But it looks like for the first time I can ever remember, the NHC is basically throwing their hands up and making the potential "cone of destruction" into a "circle of destruction." So what does that say for FL? Could there be a "round" of trouble coming? Or am I just using circular logic here.

Sorry, couldn't resist. I think I've watched one too many storms this year and must have gotten into some of Mike W.'s cold medicine ...

[Stormsfury]

Mike, do what I did today ... take a break from the boards. That long 3 hour discussion that I put together last night for here and my website now isn't worth the toilet paper that I wrote it on ...

[Aquawind]

Mike, do what I did today ... take a break from the boards. That long 3 hour discussion that I put together last night for here and my website now isn't worth the toilet paper that I wrote it on ...

I feel your pain..sux when that happens..

All in Stride..next..