Monsoon is declared OVER....well "DUH!"

[azsnowman]

The NWS has FINALLY declared the '04 Monsoon Season OVER as of 17 August, well DUH....what's taking you folks SO long to offically declare it over This was the second driest monsoon on record....the worst nonsoon/monsoon season was August of 1904. According to my stats, we finished up with just over 6.34", WELL below the normal 13.00". Let's HOPE like HADES the forecasted El Nino is gonna a WHOPPER!

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

it over as of 20 August down here on my website on the 1st. Have to realize, that the end of the monsoon is not as sharply defined as the beginning and that one usually has to wait a while after the monsoon pattern leaves to be sure that it is not a "break" and that there is no longer any chance of its return.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

The monsoon is still going here ... as I look to the east I can see several well defined cumulonimbus towers and there are also some nice altocumulus clouds in my general vicinity. It also rained here for about 10 minutes early Thursday morning from remnant moisture that spilled over from the deserts due to the convection which had occurred in Arizona and eastern California Wednesday night. So we still have the monsoon down here.

[Aslkahuna]

it's not a true monsoon pattern since the trigger for the activity is a trough in the westerlies acting upon moisture drawn up ahead of it from the Tropics-the typical September post monsoon pattern. The actual seasonal reversal of wind flow has ended. The forecasters with NAME (of which my son was one) have also agreed that its over.

Steve

[riverratmike]

we got .55 inches of rain here in LHC, AZ last Wednesday,and even the rest of the week was cloudy and scattered thunderstorms. guess it was just a late season monsoon

[Aslkahuna]

is a seasonal wind pattern and not a storm. The actual wind pattern has shifted back to the usual westerlies. What brought on the rain was a trough that tapped into residual moisture in the wake of the monsoon as well as a tropical influence from the leftovers of recent TC's in EPAC. It was not, however, associated with the monsoon proper. NAME, in fact, is no longer in operational mode since they have also declared the monsoon to be over.

Steve

[riverratmike]

Here in Lake Havasu City, AZ we have a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sat and Sun. I guess it's part of the breaking apart hurrican that hit the gulf states. really wonder if we'll get anything

[Aslkahuna]

Nooooo, it's the hurricane off of Baja and the pickup from the incoming trough that's the reason for the rain forecast. This is a frequent enough occurrence in the post monsoon period of early Fall and can result in some real deluges (Octave, 1983, Olivia, 2000, etc.). It can also result in severe weather outbreaks in AZ including tornadoes (Juliette, 1995). Remember that the flow is now SW at H5 instead of E-SE like it is during the monsoon.

Steve

[riverratmike]

[quote="Aslkahuna"]Nooooo, it's the hurricane off of Baja and the pickup from the incoming trough that's the reason for the rain forecast. This is a frequent enough occurrence in the post monsoon period of early Fall and can result in some real deluges (Octave, 1983, Olivia, 2000, etc.). It can also result in severe weather outbreaks in AZ including tornadoes (Juliette, 1995). Remember that the flow is now SW at H5 instead of E-SE like it is during the monsoon.

Steve[/quote]


Yeah that's it. well it looks to be tracking up right over the CA/AZ border and that is where I live. Wonder if we'll get anything this weekend? Currently outside 97.5 and not a cloud in the sky

[Aslkahuna]

We are watching and waiting. NHC has the track east of you which is not a favorable for rain as it is east of the track.

Steve