Hello Lisa!!!!

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:15 pm

A new tropical wave has been introduced just E of the Cape Verde
Islands along 22w S of 20n moving W 10-15 kt. Meteosat-8 visible
imagery shows a nice circulation centered just se of the islands
but there has been no evidence as of yet that this is at the
surface. Hopefully the upcoming qscat pass will provide further
information. Regardless...hovmoeller charts show a trackable
cloud mass across W Africa and the bamako and dakar soundings
both show weak wave passages yesterday. Isolated moderate
convection is from 10n-15.5n between 20w-26w with more scattered
tstms farther S along the ITCZ.

Hyperstorm · #2 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:21 pm

I have been looking at the satellite pictures of this feature and it has gotten better organized during the past 6-12 hours. It is quite likely we'll see more organization take place. The question is: How much?

There is currently a trough just to its north that is related to the outflow of TS Karl and it will try to keep it from developing too much until Karl moves further north away from it.

Regardless, I expect some development over the next few days...

#3 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:22 pm

Oh sheesh

clueless newbie · #4 Postby **clueless newbie** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:29 pm

There was quite spectacular convection associated with it when leaving Africa. Now it is almost without convection and IMHO too close to Karl to have a chance to develop in near future.

My bet is that LISA will be the next wave.

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:33 pm

The Cape Verde season days are numbered now that we are past mid Sept.

Scorpion · #6 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:40 pm

Not really. If this is going to be a major storm, it probably will be the last Cape Verde one. But hardly the last Cape Verde storm. Lisa could turn out to be a bad storm. Historically L storms were pretty powerful. This can follow the every 2 storms pattern, eg Charley then Frances then Ivan now Lisa. All the storms between them were either TS's or fish. We'll just have to see in a few days.

#7 Postby **hurricanemike** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:52 pm

I would give it another 2-3 weeks and the Cape Verde region is gonna be shut off. Climo will begin shifting W very shortly.

Website · #8 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:53 pm

Good heavens. :eek:

James · #9 Postby **James** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:39 am

It does seem that for the last several years, the last CV storm has formed in the closing days of September, usually around the 25th.

KWT · #10 Postby **KWT** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:55 am

Personally I think Karl is more of a danger to us in the U.K(as a ex-hurricane!)then to you lot in the U.S.

none of the models are handeling were ex-Karl will go in the future.

I think Lisa however will be a much larger threat to you'se guys...

James · #11 Postby **James** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 5:02 am

You may well be right, about Karl I mean. If the current forecast track verifies, he'll be heading right in our direction.

KWT · #12 Postby **KWT** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 5:06 am

It also looks like Ivans reamants will be injected into Karl(or ex-Karl by then)I wonder what role that will play in proceddings.

KWT · #13 Postby **KWT** » Sat Sep 18, 2004 5:13 am

Here's karl according to the UKMO at the time:

http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/Recm1441.gif

on the far left handside,looks like a very intense depression capable of producing some very high winds for us in the U.k.

Still a long time off yet though and anything to happen,but the stronger it gets now,the more of a problem it'll be for us later down the road.

Hello Lisa!!!!

Hello Lisa!!!!

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