...Jeanne upgraded back to a tropical storm...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas...including the Acklins...Crooked Island...the Inaguas...
Mayaguana...and the Ragged Islands...as well as for the Turks and
Caicos Islands.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the central Bahamas
...Including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and
San Salvador.
Interests in the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Jeanne.
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Jeanne was
located near latitude 20.4 north... longitude 72.2 west. This
position is just north of Hispaniola and about or about 105
miles... 165 km... southwest of Grand Turk island.
Jeanne appeared to be stationary but is beginning to move toward the
west-northwest near 6 mph... 9 km/hr...and this general motion is
expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the north in the
next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 15 miles
... 30 km from the center.
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft recently measured a minimum
central pressure of 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels is
possible along portions of the coasts of the southeastern Bahamas.
Storm surge flooding should gradually subside along the coast
of Hispaniola as Jeanne moves away.
Rainfall accumulations of 9 to 13 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected along the path of Jeanne. Additional
rainfall is also likely over portions of Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...20.4 N... 72.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
AST.
Forecaster Jarvinen
11 PM Jean
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11 PM Jean
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huricanwatcher
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yoda
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LCfromFL wrote:I'm wanting to read the Discussion on this thing....
Here ya go!!!
Tropical Storm Jeanne Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2004
a USAF Reserve unit aircraft located the center just offshore from
Hispaniola with a 1000 mb central pressure and a maximum 1500 foot
flight level wind of 55 kt about 10 nmi north of the center.
Infrared satellite images show the very small and exposed low level
circulation center with the deep convection on the east side. The
westerly shear appears to be around 5 to 10 kts based upon the
latest UW CIMSS analysis. Based on this...and satellite intensity
estimates of 55 kts...Jeanne is upgraded back to a tropical storm
with a 40 kt wind maximum. Jeanne is very small and the 34 kt
surface winds extend out only about 15 nmi from the center in the
northern semi-Circle.
The initial motion estimate is 315/05...but the speed may be
generous...as the latest satellite images show that the system may
be slowing down again. The guidance is reasonably clustered out to
about 48 hours...except for the GFS which takes the system toward
the northeast and then...after 3 days...does a grand loop to the
right down to the south. The GFDL follows the GFS scenario but on a
more modest scale. On the left side we have the UKMET and NOGAPS
going off to the west or southwest. Since there is so much
uncertainty at the longer ranges I have done what the previous
forecaster did and moved along guidance consensus to the 3 day
position and left it there for day 4 and 5. Exactly what happens
is dependent on the evolution of the remains of Ivan and there is
disagreement on this. The model spread indicates increased
uncertainty associated with this particular forecast.
Surprisingly...the ships forecasts decreasing shear through 36 hours
but does not strengthen the system. The official forecast follows
the SHIPS guidance and gradually increases the system to 60 kts in
4 days.
Forecaster Jarvinen
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0300z 20.4n 72.2w 40 kt
12hr VT 18/1200z 20.9n 72.9w 40 kt
24hr VT 19/0000z 22.2n 73.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 19/1200z 24.3n 73.9w 40 kt
48hr VT 20/0000z 26.3n 74.0w 45 kt
72hr VT 21/0000z 29.0n 74.0w 50 kt
96hr VT 22/0000z 29.0n 74.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 23/0000z 29.0n 74.0w 60 kt
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huricanwatcher
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FLLuckyAgain
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iluvseashore
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gkrangers
NHC says Storm, so its a storm.ROCK wrote:you have got to be kidding me...upgrading that piece of garbage. How do you upgrade an exposed LLC with no convection except on the east side with shear practically ripping it apart....I didnt know you could upgrade a LLC ONLY!!! crazy...TD yes..Storm no...sorry had to vent....
It has a closed LLC and winds at TS force, its a Storm. And it does atleast have some convection.
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ROCK wrote:you have got to be kidding me...upgrading that piece of garbage. How do you upgrade an exposed LLC with no convection except on the east side with shear practically ripping it apart....I didnt know you could upgrade a LLC ONLY!!! crazy...TD yes..Storm no...sorry had to vent....
You have clearly been spoiled by the large number of major hurricanes thus far this season.
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gkrangers wrote:NHC says Storm, so its a storm.ROCK wrote:you have got to be kidding me...upgrading that piece of garbage. How do you upgrade an exposed LLC with no convection except on the east side with shear practically ripping it apart....I didnt know you could upgrade a LLC ONLY!!! crazy...TD yes..Storm no...sorry had to vent....
It has a closed LLC and winds at TS force, its a Storm. And it does atleast have some convection.
I know what the NHC said thanks, however curiously odd that this would be upgraded with all the negatives going against it.....As far as the TS winds.. bet you it aint coming from the west side....
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bahamaswx wrote:ROCK wrote:you have got to be kidding me...upgrading that piece of garbage. How do you upgrade an exposed LLC with no convection except on the east side with shear practically ripping it apart....I didnt know you could upgrade a LLC ONLY!!! crazy...TD yes..Storm no...sorry had to vent....
You have clearly been spoiled by the large number of major hurricanes thus far this season.
Lets see that would be no ,since 1 major is to many in my book....
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calidoug wrote:You didn't know that? I guess you're not familiar with the definitions of TD and TS, then. Consider this NHC action as a learning experience.
Sorry, had to vent.
Very versed in definitions. Thanks for caring. Learning experience in what?? I was not bashing the NHC. What I didnt understand is why to upgrade now when she is definitly at her worst......and finally I thought this board was alittle leniant(sp) when someone had an opinion. I didnt know I would be responded by someone mocking me or insulting my intelligence. But alas, people can be rude sometimes...
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Brent wrote:I didn't even know it was downgraded.Had a power outage during the night last night and it was out all day. Just came back about 10 minutes ago.
I know the feeling.
Lost power for 3 weeks in Alicia 83. 11pm brought it back up. Latest infared you can see the exposed LLC more clearly. Looks to me like the shear is doing a number on her and not allowing the convec. to wrap around. I dont know how long they will keep it a TS if this LLC is exposed throughout the night. Will be interesting to see...
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Air Force Met
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ROCK wrote:you have got to be kidding me...upgrading that piece of garbage. How do you upgrade an exposed LLC with no convection except on the east side with shear practically ripping it apart....I didnt know you could upgrade a LLC ONLY!!! crazy...TD yes..Storm no...sorry had to vent....
They updgraded it because they got 49 kts at 1500'. That equates to 40 kts at the sfc. You do not need any convection to be upgraded to a tropical storm. All you need is wind. So ...my question is...how do you have a TD with sustained winds of 40 kts? Recon found sustained sfc winds of 40 kts at the sfc...so what are you going to call it? A 40kt TD? That makes less sense than upgrading it. The criteria is winds...not convection or shear.
40 kts is 40 kts...it doesn't matter whether it is accompanied by rain...snow...or sleet. It's still 40 kts. Adding precip doesn't make it any stronger...just wetter and more miserable.
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