Hurricane Javier forecast 2#(My forecast)

[Matthew5]

I will make Advisories for any tropical cyclone that crosses 22 north...between 140 to 108 west...

Hurricane Javier...
Advisorie 2#
9-17-2004
4:30pm pst...

Hurricane Javier weakens some as it moves northwestward...

Hurricane Javier has becomed slightly less organized over the last 6 hours...The latest Sab t numbers have droped from 5.5/5.5 earlier this morning. Then they where 4.5/4.5 this afternoon(At Advisory one). But tonight there down to around 4.0. The deep ball of convection has also becomed way less defined. In the convection has warmed greatly. At this moment it is hard for me to keep this system has a hurricane...Also that convection is becoming displaced off to the east of the center of the low level cirulation.(As of the 500z in 530z satellite)...The center is at 22.9/113.1...We will keep this a hurricane based on sab t number/that the system was still a 90 mph tropical cyclone 6 hours ago. In the system still has a fair amount of convection.


The tropical cyclone is about ready to move over waters cooler then 28c over the next 12 hours. But if the cyclone stays closer to the baja it has above 26c waters up to 28 north...Remember the water west of 115 west drops off fast...The stable air is also west of the system like discused earlier. So a slow run down of the system should happen over the next 12 to 24 hours...The upper level shear over the system is very low around 10 knots...But the cyclone should move into more shear of 20 knots north of 26 to 28 north...Also to note is the shear to the north of the cyclone is going down. So we will have to wait to see a trend. But also to note some times when a trough picks a tropical cyclone up the shear out of the southwest picks up over the tropcial cyclone...But if the system moves with the shear the system will hold its own better.

The cyclone should be picked up by a trough moving down the west coast. Which should push the tropical cyclone into the Baja over the next few days. Computer models...The cmc models takes it around slight more north then the 12z cmc today that moved it inland around 24.5 to 25 north. Tonight it takes it inland around 26 to 26.5 north. The Avn also takes it farther to the north making landfall around 27.5 to 28 north on that piece of land that sticks out. The Gfdl also doe's the same with the system. Moving it inland 26.8/113...Because the models are in fair agreement we take the system more to the north. In make landfall slightly north of the Gfdl...Or more in line with the new Cmc model...Forecast to take it in around 27/114...This landfall should be made around 42 to 48 hours...



Forecast winds
Now 75 mph
6 65 mph
12 55 mph
24 50 mph
36 45 mph
48 40 mph(Landfall on Baja)
60 20 mph(Depression over land)
72 10 mph(Over the southwestern United states)

The next forecast around 1pm pst...This forecast is unoffial please listen to the nhc...

Forecaster Matthew...

Advisorie 1# http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=46057