DAMN EURO... has something against miami....

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ericinmia
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DAMN EURO... has something against miami....

#1 Postby ericinmia » Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:41 am

It has predicted at least half of the storms to hit south fla... at some point or other...
It predicted Frances well about 7 days out...
Ivan not so well...

If this verfies... which is very well possible.... other models are indicating similar, such as the ukmet... Then miami could be in for its share of the years florida beating, so far we are the only ones not to get some storm.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

Appears to be cat2 nearing miami coastline next weekend.
Can anyone say.... B E T S Y ?
lol, damn i hate this waiting.
-Eric
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#2 Postby mobilebay » Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:47 am

The Euro and UKMEt does seem to have the best handle on this storm. The GFS is on Crack again and should be disregarded at this time (again).
The GFS has right hooked the last three storms Frances, Ivan and now this one. Someone is going to have to look into the GFS, it has had the High pressure systems WAY to weak this season. Until this is fixed I will no longer consider the GFS a reliable model.
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#3 Postby ericinmia » Sat Sep 18, 2004 2:56 am

Good to hear from you mobile... glad your doing well.
I agree i have lost a great deal of confidence if not all in the GFS. It takes a lot of compensetory work to get anything out of it.
-Eric
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#4 Postby mobilebay » Sat Sep 18, 2004 3:02 am

ericinmia wrote:Good to hear from you mobile... glad your doing well.
I agree i have lost a great deal of confidence if not all in the GFS. It takes a lot of compensetory work to get anything out of it.
-Eric

Yea Wednesday night/Thursday Morning was scary. I was in the Western Eye wall for about 1 Hour. NWS Mobile peak gust was 75MPH. However, I was in the Eyewall and they were not, so I guess we had some gusts near 90MPH at times.(just a guess though). Thank God (for me) for that slight East jog before landfall or I would have been in the Eastern Eyewall. Lot of down trees and debris, be me and family are OK.
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#5 Postby ericinmia » Sat Sep 18, 2004 3:09 am

Yikes... wish i could offer a hand... i'd be glad to chainsaw away those trees. :) I love clipping/cutting/chainsawing... :)

In a sick demented way... i was hoping for a storm this season to be able to use my new weather station, and also pull out the new chainsaw. I just hope its not a beast.

This season sure has had quite a few twists to it.
Nothing at this point would surprise me.
-Eric
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#6 Postby mobilebay » Sat Sep 18, 2004 3:14 am

The reason I said I was in the Western Eyewall was looking at Radar Images from NWS mobile on their prelimanary report. THE NWS is in western mobile county, and I'm in Eastern Mobile county, much closer to the Eye. The 3Am radar image clearly shows my location in the northwest Eyewall.
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#7 Postby ericinmia » Sat Sep 18, 2004 3:29 am

wow, thats scary...
Were you able to experience the calm of the eye?
That i believe is a once in a lifetime event!
-Eric
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#8 Postby mobilebay » Sat Sep 18, 2004 3:45 am

Http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/ivan_page/radar/160801.gif

note I am about 15 miles NNE of Downtown Mobile.
Last edited by mobilebay on Sat Sep 18, 2004 3:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby mobilebay » Sat Sep 18, 2004 3:46 am

mobilebay wrote:http//:www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/ivan_page/radar/160801.gif

note I am about 15 miles NNE of Downtown Mobile.
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#10 Postby ericinmia » Sat Sep 18, 2004 3:47 am

lol
Http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/ivan_page/radar/160801.gif
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#11 Postby mobilebay » Sat Sep 18, 2004 3:50 am


Thanks . I butcherd that pretty good. Thats why I hate posting links. They give me fits. Also, no I did not get any Calm conditions.
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Re: DAMN EURO... has something against miami....

#12 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 18, 2004 4:18 am

ericinmia wrote:It has predicted at least half of the storms to hit south fla... at some point or other...
It predicted Frances well about 7 days out...
Ivan not so well...

If this verfies... which is very well possible.... other models are indicating similar, such as the ukmet... Then miami could be in for its share of the years florida beating, so far we are the only ones not to get some storm.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

Appears to be cat2 nearing miami coastline next weekend.
Can anyone say.... B E T S Y ?
lol, damn i hate this waiting.
-Eric

if J survives this solution is just as plausible as any other based on the building heights through the period. lets face it, everything at this point is possible but the longer it survives the more likely a florida hit. one thing that seems for sure in this whole mess is a huge ridge divng in and building west.
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Rainband

#13 Postby Rainband » Sat Sep 18, 2004 6:27 am

I wouldn't worry about the euro ,
Jeanne would need to move ne for that to happen :wink:
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Derek Ortt

#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 18, 2004 9:00 am

the euro has been as useful as my ex-girlfriend this year. I wouldn't put all that much stock in that model
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#15 Postby Windsong » Sat Sep 18, 2004 9:58 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the euro has been as useful as my ex-girlfriend this year. I wouldn't put all that much stock in that model


LOL! THAT made my day! Thanks for the laugh Derek!
Windsong
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