Hurricane Karl a 85 mph fishcane!

[Matthew5]

403
WTNT32 KNHC 180828
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2004

...KARL RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE
2004 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST OR ABOUT 975 MILES
...1570 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KARL POSES NO IMMEDIATE
THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 75 MILES...120 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...14.9 N... 38.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Matthew5]

788
WTNT22 KNHC 180829
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004
0900Z SAT SEP 18 2004

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 38.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 38.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 38.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.8N 40.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 42.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.1N 44.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 26.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 31.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 38.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

FORECASTER STEWART

I think this will be a cat4!

[Matthew5]

870
WTNT42 KNHC 180851
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

KARL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO BASED ON
THE APPEARANCE OF A SMALL BUT DISTINCT 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KT...77 KT
...AND 65 KT...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS KARL MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BY 72 HOURS...A
STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA...WHICH
CAUSES A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KARL. THE LARGE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
KARL...WHICH ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BEGIN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER KARL REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OUTWARD IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING THAT ANY RESTRICTION THAT HAS
CREATED THE ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. KARL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS DUE TO THE SMALL INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN
...AND WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY TREND
IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AND IS LEVELED OFF BY 72
HOURS WHEN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN SHIPS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN MUCH LOWER
AFTER THAT...SINCE THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS KARL UP TO 125 KT IN 72H.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.9N 38.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.8N 40.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 42.4W 100 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 18.1N 44.1W 105 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 23.0N 46.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 26.5N 47.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 31.0N 45.5W 90 KT