Jeanne forecast #5.. she makes a bit of a comeback

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
1020 AM SAT SEPT 18TH 2004

Tropical Storm Jeanne survived her battle with the DR to live another day but was beaten so badly in the process, her LLC was left naked and left to shiver.

She is slowly becoming better organized this morning as a tropical storm, and may make the most of her oppurtunity. She is currently in the extreme Southern Bahamian Islands and has warm water to work with. This may cause her to even regain hurricane status in the near future.

I have backed off on a Florida landfall for this forecast period because of the expected movement Jeanne will take and because she could even STALL near the end of the period.

Jeanne will continue on a N or NW track the next 5 days.. Most models even take her northward through day 5.. but then they all go off in different directions.

Jeanne will still have at least 1 factor if not even 2 managing her movement. Ivan's remnants could actually retreat to the south.. as that happens.. the high pressure system is still forecast to build in. This would cause Jeanne to move towards the west.. Possibly once again threatening Florida or the SE coast in 6-7 days.

Jeanne could re-become a hurricane. It's not impossible. With the warm water to work with, it could happen.

Here is my current 5 day outlook on Jeanne

Today: Regaining strength, continued N-NW movement. Max Winds: 55 mph
Sunday: still in the Bahamas.. Max Winds: 55 mph
Monday: Paralell to the Central and North Bahamas. Max Winds: 65 mph
Tuesday: Starting to possibly turn back W. Maybe stronger. Max Winds: 70 mph
Wednesday: Back towards the west.. Florida and GA watch closely. Max Winds: 70 mph

I have called off classifying her again a hurricane for now. But that is subject to change.

Note: forecasts and wind speeds are subject to errors, some as large as several 100 miles.

DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and should not be used in making decisions, especially life or death decisions. For more info. Please listen to local media outlets or the NHC.

[Josephine96]

I again.. forgot..

As always.. comments are welcomed

[cape_escape]

Thanks Jo for the update! Your doing great!

[Josephine96]

Thank you Cape Escape.. Glad you think so..

I couldn't believe it yesterday when she went down to depression status lol

[x-y-no]

At this point I think a return to hurricane strength is very likely. Probably not beyond a Cat 2 ever, though, (and most likely in th cat 1 to 2 to boundary range) given slow motion and waters churned up by Frances.

[Josephine96]

Good point XY.. I think she could re-become a hurricane too.. When I write another update later or tomorrow.. I'll probably note that..