High resoultion Visible imagery at 1515Z shows the small circulation is now exposed again and running out to the west of the convection. This could be a smaller vortex embedded in the larger circulation...but Jeanne does not look like it is holding together all that well. If this is the center...Jeanne may be in some trouble.
MW
Jeanne Exposed Again
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wxwatcher2
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x-y-no
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wxwatcher2 wrote:Jeanne is getting more of her convection cloud cover together. Appears to be regrouping at another shot at hurricanee status.
Forecasts call for Jeanne to be well out East of the US.
I don't see any convection near the exposed LLC.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc04/ATL/11L.JEANNE/ssmi/vis1km/LATEST.jpg
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Anonymous
x-y-no wrote:Jekyhe32210 wrote:Looking at the loop, I dont think that is the LLC headed west towards Cuba because there is still a CCW spin in the area of deep convection east of the LLC.
Don't see it.
So what do you think this vortex trucking off to the west is, if not the LLC?
looks like a UFO to me...
.
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Anonymous
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x-y-no
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Jekyhe32210 wrote:I dont know but why would the ball of convection to the east of this have a complete CCW spin to it? There may be a weak low within the overall circulation.
Still not seeing it, sorry. The heavier convection seems to be further south with time, and there's some upper-level stuff flowing off to the N and NE. Don't see any spin there, though.
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x-y-no wrote:Jekyhe32210 wrote:Looking at the loop, I dont think that is the LLC headed west towards Cuba because there is still a CCW spin in the area of deep convection east of the LLC.
Don't see it.
So what do you think this vortex trucking off to the west is, if not the LLC?
No question about it...that is definately the low center...this is probably why we have not seen any true banding features today...the low center has been decoupled all morning....this is Debby all over again.
Is it possible for redevelopment to occur somewhere in that mess of clouds? It's possible...but it's not probable. I think jeanne is goner at 5PM EDT unless that low center does not crash into Cuba before then.
MW
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DoctorHurricane2003
DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:I think you guys are overanalyzing again...step back and wait. The NHC won't issue a final advisory unless the COC is well removed from all convection for a long while or if there is no COC at all.
Don't think we're over analyzing at all...the low center is as plain as day.
As I noted above it's possible that there's something in the rest of that decaying blob of storms but it's not probable. Last time I checked this is a discussion forum and not a wait for recon forum.
MW
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DoctorHurricane2003
Here is what I mean by overanalyzing (this was shown when Jeanne was over Hispanola):
1. You note that there is an exposed circulation, however, you don't mention the possibility of thunderstorms reforming over the low center.
2. You quickly dismiss the possibility of a coc redeveloping east of the center.
Um...where did that come from?
I'll also remind people on the boards that there were several people calling for the death of Jeanne over Hispanola yesterday.
1. You note that there is an exposed circulation, however, you don't mention the possibility of thunderstorms reforming over the low center.
2. You quickly dismiss the possibility of a coc redeveloping east of the center.
Last time I checked this is a discussion forum and not a wait for recon forum
Um...where did that come from?
I'll also remind people on the boards that there were several people calling for the death of Jeanne over Hispanola yesterday.
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DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:Here is what I mean by overanalyzing (this was shown when Jeanne was over Hispanola):
1. You note that there is an exposed circulation, however, you don't mention the possibility of thunderstorms reforming over the low center.
2. You quickly dismiss the possibility of a coc redeveloping east of the center.Last time I checked this is a discussion forum and not a wait for recon forum
Um...where did that come from?
I'll also remind people on the boards that there were several people calling for the death of Jeanne over Hispanola yesterday.
You're probably right...I overreacted. Sorry about that.
Those are both probabilities. We could see some redevelopment...it is possible. But now that the TS has been stripped away from the convective support is has become embedded in the low-level flow and is racing westward. Also...the environment there is very stable:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg
So the only chance IMHO that Jeanne has for survival is for something to get going in the remaining thunderstorms and work it's way down.
The lack of convective banding features all day IMHO is the giveaway that something hasn't been right.
MW
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