Accuweather 6 PM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 18, 2004 5:35 p.m.


The remnant low pressure of Ivan is located east of the Delmarva Peninsula, and it is tracking slowly to the east-southeast. Heavy rain from Ivan is moving east of New England, and gusty winds and showers linger along the mid-Atlantic coast. The remnant circulation of Ivan will track southeastward over the next 12 hours, then more to the south and southwest just off the Carolina coast on Sunday. A strong ridge of high pressure developing northwest of Ivan will steer the remnants back across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

As of 5 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Jeanne was located near 22.0 north and 72.3 or very near the Caicos Islands. Jeanne is moving toward the north-northwest at 7 mph and has sustained winds of 45 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars or 29.68 inches. Jeanne went into disarray Saturday afternoon as part of the low-level circulation broke away to the west and convection continued to the east and north. Surface data from the Bahamas and from a recon plane put the new center of Jeanne to the northeast. Jeanne will have to reorganize as it tracks into the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic, and it could become a hurricane once again. Just about all model guidance tracks the feature north through tomorrow and then more to the northeast Monday and Tuesday as it interacts with the mid-level upper trough from Ivan, which will be tracking southwest across Florida. A large ridge of high pressure building into the Ohio valley will be the driving force that sends Ivan's trough to the southwest across Florida, and it may also be the driving force that sends Jeanne west toward Florida after midweek so Florida is not out of the woods. There are at least a couple of more options for Jeanne. One is that it tracks farther east stalls over the southwestern Atlantic for much of next week, or it may get picked up by a deepening trough east of New England and head out to sea. At the current time, Accu Weather feels that the most likely path will be back toward Florida after midweek.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Hurricane Karl was centered at 15.9 north and 40.2 west, about 1075 miles to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, with maximum sustained winds now at 110 mph. Central pressure was estimated at 965 millibars (28.50 inches). Karl continues to strengthen as it tracks to the west-northwest at 13 mph and could become a Category 3 hurricane within 24 hours. A trough of low pressure approaching Karl from the west should steer the storm into the central Atlantic and away from any land masses next week.

[Cookiely]

[tronbunny]

Come on!
Why the Florida scenario, more than the others?
PuhhlEEase! (major exasperation over hurricane syndrome)
Give the nerves of Floridians at least a 2 day rest.
won't kill any of us!

[canegrl04]

Poor Florida just can't catch a break this season

[skysummit]

What are the chances of Ivan's circulation dropping back to the surface and reorganizing once he's over water again? I don't think it would happen, but still.....

Any thoughts?

[TampaFl]

[SeaBrz_FL]

I've been closely watching the "direct FL hit" Jeanne discussions on Accuweather for three days. That's why I started the "Accuweather credibility" thread two hours ago.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=46248

[Windy]

Well, I imagine that if the remnants of Ivan end up back in the GOM, as Accuweather predicts, it could be pretty interesting to watch.

The GFS model was calling for Ivan to come out over the eastern seaboard, turn back into a tropical system, and hit Florida. At the time it seemed silly, as all the models were being silly.

Who knows. It's been a year straight out of the Twilight Zone.