...Tonights Jeanne Forecast...

[MWatkins]

At least for now I am not doing this on my website...like I used to...but I will probably start the original forecasts up again tomorrow...this is what I am putting into the concensus for Storm2K forecasters up in the thread above...sorry...not as detailed as usuall but like I aid I will start that up again tomorrow probably...

MW Forecast for 9/19/2004 00Z

Jeanne does not resemble a tropical storm in infrared imagery...and the location of the center is nearly impossible using infrared imagery. Luckilly...recon has been providing fix positions...which are jumping around some tonight.

Jeanne should continue on a mostly north track for the next three days. After that time...a large building dome of high pressure will ridge in to the north and west of Jeanne. Over time...as Jeanne reaches the base of the ridge...Jeanne is expected to crawl slowly westward. How far back to the south is unclear as this solution is very different from model to model.

The intensity forecast assumes that Jeanne remains an identifiable tropical cylone through the next 5 days...but this is far from certain. As a result...the intensity has been held at 40 knots for the entire period...however...late in the forecast period upper level conditions could become more favorable for development...and subsequent forecasts may have to ratchet up intensity significantly...especially late in the window.

Initial: 22.2N 72.3W 40 knots
+12: 23.5N 72.2W 40 knots
+24: 25.0N 72.0W 40 knots
+36: 26.8N 72.0W 40 knots
+48: 28.0N 72.0W 40 knots
+72: 27.5N 70.5W 40 knots
+96: 27.0N 72.0W 40 knots
+120: 27.0N 74.0W 40 knots

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

Very very interesting read Mike. I look forward to your future forecasts and thinking.

<RICKY>