OK...Time for a Storm2K Concensus Forecast...Please Join

[MWatkins]

"I feel like I am a wishcaster because I like to experience interesting weather."

Of course I do nothing more than make a mountain out of a molehill. I would like to be one of the few to do this, but something is keeping me from posting my forecast.

OK...then send me a PM with your forecast tomorrow morning and it will be factored in without the track being specified pubically. We are...as MBryant notes...testing a concept...we are not operationally forecasting this system.

Regardless...I am very interested to see your forecast.

MW

[ColdFront77]

If I do, I will gladly post it here.

I have I know idea what mine is at this moment, either. It will obviously be based on the current projection from the NHC and I don't see why I can't use the ones posted in this thread as guidance.

[MBryant]

Having just forecast Ivan to go into Nicaragua, I'm not ready to tackle Jeanne. I still don't know why Ivan had it's northerly component when it wa below 15 degrees lattitude.

[ColdFront77]

Forecasting Ivan going to Nicaragua was going against quite a majority.

[SouthernWx]

My Saturday morning (12z) forecast. Jeanne..a little stronger today, and still loopy

Forecast for 9/18/2004 12Z

Initial: 8 AM 21.2N 72.8 W 40 Knots

+12: 22.1N 73.8W 50 kts
+24: 23.4N 74.0W 55 kts
+36: 25.0N 73.5W 60 kts
+48: 26.5N 72.8W 65 kts
+72: 28.5N 70.0W 70 kts
+96: 27.0N 68.0W 70 kts
+120: 25.5N 69.5W 75 kts

[MBryant]

I'll cut myself some slack since I made my "forecast" before Ivan had even reached Grenada. As you suggested, I was out of the mainstream with my opinion on a Nicaragua landfall, but there was occasional support from "cracked" models and a Yucatan call.

But this does bring up an interesting point. If my cracked forecast were averaged into the consensus, then the consensus would have been pulled to the south...which is closer to Ivan's actual path than the models which were projecting a path through the middle of the leewards.

Maybe this test needs a few of us crazies to submit a forecast after all.

[MWatkins]

9/18/2004 10:30AM Jeanne Forecast:

Jeanne has become a little better organized. Shear has decreased some and thunderstorm activity has build in over the low center. Thunderstorm activity...while better concentrated...is not very deep and there are no real banding features present. Regardless...Jeanne is expected to slowly strengthen through the next day or so. Forecast intensity is held just below hurricane strength until intensity becomes a little clearer. It should be noted that the SHIPS guidance does bring Jeanne back to hurricane strength.

The forecast track become problematic after 48 hours as the models continue to spider away. It still appears that the GFS is not handling the interaction between Jeanne and leftover Ivan well and all of the GFS derived forecast models are being disounted for now. The track is in best agreement with NOGAPS and UKMET...although slower and due west late in the period to reflect some uncertanity...and to demonstrate that there is a possibility that Jeanne could be shoved to the south some as well.

+0 21.1N 72.8W 45 knots
+12 22.5N 73.5W 50 knots
+24 23.5N 74.0W 55 knots
+36 25.0N 74.0W 55 knots
+48 26.0N 74.5W 60 knots
+72 27.5N 75.0W 60 knots
+96 27.5N 75.5W 60 knots
+120 27.5N 76.0W 60 knots

[ColdFront77]

....+0 . 21.4°N . 73.0°W . 45 knots
..+12 . 22.5°N . 73.6°W . 50 knots
..+24 . 22.6°N . 73.9°W . 50 knots
..+36 . 24.2°N . 74.2°W . 50 knots
..+48 . 25.4°N . 74.4°W . 55 knots
..+72 . 28.6°N . 75.3°W . 55 knots
..+96 . 28.4°N . 75.7°W . 55 knots
+120 . 28.6°N . 75.9°W . 60 knots

[hurrmia]

i think that jeanne will by open wave((tropical wave)) by 5:00pm by by jeanne

[Texasblu]

Ummmmmmmm - - - - does the one who comes the closest get to shout "BINGO!" ? Just asking.

[Hurricanehink]

Here goes nothing. Jeanne is very disorganized, so it is making forecasting a nightmare. However, it has gone somewhat correctly. After reforming, it is a little more organized, allowing some possible strength, but I believe that strong shear will ultimately destroy it.
Initial (5PM SAT) - 40 knots - 22.0 N 72.3 W
+12 (5 AM SUN) - 40 knots - 23.5 N 73.6 W
+24 (5 PM SUN) - 35 knots - 24.6 N 74.3 W
+36 (5 AM MON) - 30 knots - 25.1 N 74.6 W
+48 (5 PM MON) - 30 knots - 26.2 N 74.4 W... Dissipating
+72 (5 PM TUE) - 25 knots - 27.4 N 73.8 W ... Dissipated

[MWatkins]

Just a note to make the ensemble forecast for tonight the forecasts will need to make 8PM's position as the initial times and use 2AM and 2PM as the verify points.

I could try to interpolate the tracks above but I'm not sure that's going to work.

So HurricaneHink and Coldfront...if you have time please update your tracks and post here before 1045 this evening...otherwise I'll see what I can do.

Thanks
MW

[SouthernWx]

Forecast for 9/19/2004 00Z
Initial: 8 PM 22.2N 72.3 W 40 Knots

+12: 23.5N 72.5W 45 kts
+24: 25.2N 72.3W 50 kts
+36: 27.2N 71.5W 55 kts
+48: 28.5N 70.0W 60 kts
+72: 27.5N 68.5W 70 kts
+96: 26.0N 69.5W 75 kts
+120: 26.0N 73.5 80 kts

[Hurricanehink]

Updated positions, now I think it will die sooner. Shear is evident, and there is little convection near the center.
Initial (10PM SAT) - 40 knots - 22.3 N 72.4 W
+12 (10 AM SUN) - 35 knots - 23.6 N 73.6 W
+24 (10 PM SUN) - 35 knots - 24.1 N 73.8 W
+36 (10 AM MON) - 30 knots - 24.8 N 74.0 W... Dissipating
+48 (10 PM MON) - 25 knots - 25.2 N 73.7 W... Dissipated

[cswitwer]

I like the concept and am thrilled to participate in testing your theory.


Initial: 8PM 22.2N 72.3W 40 Knots
12 hours: 22.5N 72.3W 35 Knots
+24: 22.9N 72.5W 30 Knots
+36: 23.5N 72.0W 35 Knots
+48: 25.9N 72.5W 40 Knots
+72: 26.1N 73.2W 40 Knots
+96: 27.0N 74.1W 45 Knots
+120: 27.0N 75.2W 45 Knots

chris

[ColdFront77]

8:00 PM EDT: +0 . 22.2°N . 72.3°W . 40 knots

..+12 . 23.2°N . 72.3°W . 45 knots
..+24 . 24.2°N . 72.3°W . 50 knots
..+36 . 25.4°N . 72.4°W . 55 knots
..+48 . 25.8°N . 72.5°W . 60 knots
..+72 . 26.9°N . 74.2°W . 60 knots
..+96 . 26.4°N . 75.7°W . 70 knots
+120 . 26.7°N . 75.9°W . 75 knots


Mike, just curious... did SouthernWx automically know to post his here and you didn't think myself and Hurricanehink would?

Figures I don't know exactly how my forecast track looks on a map. If I post my forecast positions prior to posting it here it will take so much longer.

[MWatkins]

8:00 PM EDT: +0 . 22.2°N . 72.3°W . 40 knots

..+12 . 23.2°N . 72.3°W . 45 knots
..+24 . 24.2°N . 72.3°W . 50 knots
..+36 . 25.4°N . 72.4°W . 55 knots
..+48 . 25.8°N . 72.5°W . 60 knots
..+72 . 26.9°N . 74.2°W . 60 knots
..+96 . 26.4°N . 75.7°W . 70 knots
+120 . 26.7°N . 75.9°W . 75 knots


Mike, just curious... did SouthernWx automically know to post his here and you didn't think myself and Hurricanehink would?

Saw his...got started on yours too late...I am actually going back to update the conensus and add your forecast in...will need about 15 mins.

Thanks Tom.

MW

[ColdFront77]

You didn't mention SouthernWx in your 7:17 post, he posted his forecast at 9:09.

Sorry, I tried to get online by 10:45, but my mother was using the computer just up to around that time.

How can we really not be guessing the wind speed of the system?

You're welcome, Mike.

[MWatkins]

You didn't mention SouthernWx in your 7:17 post, he posted his forecast at 9:09.

Sorry, I tried to get online by 10:45, but my mother was using the computer just up to around that time.

How can we really not be guessing the wind speed of the system?

You're welcome, Mike.

You are right...he had already been posing his forecast using 8AM/PM coordinates since yesterday so I did not mention him specifically...no problem...if you can't get on I can always go back and revise the forecast as I have done tonight...no problem.

Forecasting...is just deductive guessing.

MW

[ColdFront77]

I understand, Mike. There tends to be a reasoning behind choosing 50 knots rather than 45 or 55 knots...