Sunday September 19, 2004 5am
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Jeanne has survived. Winds are 45 mph and the pressure is down 1 millibar to 1001 mb. Cheer up sleepy Jeanne... Oh what can it mean, to a no-shear believer and a landfalling queen? That was lame, even I have to admit.
Jeanne is moving north-northwest at 6 kt. I expect the trough over Florida to keep Jeanne on a NNW / N / NNE track over the next 36 hours. Then as a STRONG RIDGE builds in, a turn back southwest then west again towards the SE Florida Coast. I feel more confident with this forecast than with others on Jeanne. I actually think Jeanne may be a rather interesting system for the Gulf Coast in coming days...stay tuned on that.
Jeanne has better outflow, and more favorable conditions. Now that she is able to strengthen, and knowing how fast she went from a weak tropical storm to a potent category 1 hurricane over the Mona Passage, I am currently in the thinking that, once she begins strengthening with that small center, she could go rather quick, even if the conditions are only right for 6-12 hours. Therefore, I expect Jeanne to be a hurricane in 36-48 hours. After that, I expect some shear to weaken her at 72 hours, followed by strengthening once again as she moves over the warm Gulf Stream waters.
12 HRS-- 25.0 N--- 74.3 W-- 45 kt
24 HRS-- 26.4 N-- 74.6 W-- 55 kt
36 HRS-- 28.2 N-- 74.3 W-- 65 kt
48 HRS-- 27.2 N-- 74.0 W-- 70 kt
72 HRS-- 27.0 N-- 75.0 W-- 65 kt
96 HRS-- 26.4 N-- 76.2 W-- 70 kt
120 HRS- 26.2 N-- 77.3 W-- 80 kt
