POSTED: September 19, 2004 8:43 a.m.
The remnant low pressure of Ivan is located off the Outer Banks of North Carolina Sunday morning. The area of low pressure is causing stiff northeast winds all along the Southeast coast. In addition, a few spotty showers have moved across Capes Hatteras and Lookout early this morning. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from Cape Hatteras, N.C., to Fenwick Island, Del. Rough surf generated by this area of low pressure is causing dangerous rip currents. Swimmers and surfers are discouraged from entering the surf these next few days. While water temperatures are still rather warm, most beaches are unguarded and even the strongest swimmers can be overcome by the force of a rip current. The area of low pressure will drift to the south and west and bring an increase in moisture to the Florida Peninsula for the middle of the upcoming work week. While it is not likely, this low pressure area will be monitored for future development as it drifts southwest towards the Gulf of Mexico.
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Jeanne was located near 23.2 north and 72.5 west, or about 140 miles east-southeast of San Salvador, Bahamas. Jeanne is moving toward the north-northwest at 7 mph and has sustained winds of 45 mph. The latest measured minimum central pressure is 1001 millibars or 29.56 inches. Jeanne has been hindered from strengthening the past 24 hours due to an upper-level low pressure area to her southwest. Jeanne is moving away from this upper low and could begin to strengthen a bit again today. This may have even already began as latest satellite imagery shows that Jeanne's outflow is beginning to improve as well. Jeanne will be tracking over warm waters, which will also help her regain strength. It is possible that Jeanne could regain hurricane status in a few days. However, winds at the jet stream level are rather strong which could still hinder Jeanne's strengthening a bit. The track of Jeanne is still difficult to predict. It seems clear that Jeanne is moving northerly as a result of being affected by the remnant low of Ivan. Jeanne will probably even move a bit to the northeast as a storm well to the north moves out to sea. Jeanne will most likely slow down and begin to wander between the Bahamas and Bermuda during the upcoming work week. Although computer models diverge on a solution past this point, AccuWeather feels that the southeast coast still remains at risk since high pressure building in from the north may steer the storm back westward toward the U.S. coast. As a result, all residents from Florida to the Carolinas, and perhaps even the mid-Atlantic states, should monitor the progress and development of Jeanne. There is still a chance, however, that Jeanne could get pulled out to sea and not affect any land areas. AccuWeather will be watching the track of Jeanne very carefully these next few days.
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT Saturday, Hurricane Karl was centered at 16.3 north and 42.2 west, about 1210 miles to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, with maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. Karl is the fifth major hurricane of the season. The hurricane is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph and central pressure was estimated at 960 millibars (28.35 inches). Karl is going through an eye replacement and its strength will fluctuate over the next 12 hours, but overall it should continue to strengthen over the next day or 2 and may reach CAT 4 strength. A trough of low pressure approaching Karl from the west should steer the storm into the central Atlantic and away from any land masses next week.
An area of disturbed weather about 400 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become a bit more organized this morning. It is possible that this area could develop into a tropical system within the next couple of days.
