11AM JEANNE PROBABILITIES

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

NC/SC???????




WTNT71 KNHC 191430
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

26.5N 71.5W 34 X 1 X 35 MYEG 235N 758W X X 1 2 3
27.5N 70.5W 16 6 1 1 24 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2
27.5N 70.0W 11 8 2 1 22 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 3 3
MDSD 185N 697W X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2
MDPP 198N 707W X X X 3 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2
MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 5 6 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2
MYMM 224N 730W 79 X X X 79 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 3 3
MYSM 241N 745W 22 X X 1 23 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


$$

[krisj]

I saw that, but we were on the map a few days ago and now we aren't. WHo knows what they are thinking at this point.

[ericinmia]

The prob. aer based off the current location of the storm and its possibility to vear off course. In the near term it is not going to the Florida coast... the only logical place it could possibly go is clipping the NC border. But we all know pretty unanimously that Jeannes is going out to sea, and looping back to the coast sub lat. that the carolinas are at.
Usually if you are in any of the cone, or are very near it they will calculate the prob.
-Eric

[panichead4469]

Also, that probability data is based on a timeframe, so the realistic forecasted probability for any given area on the east coast will not show up until, say, <72 hours prior to landfall.