HOU-GAL AFD.......Ivan the Second

[KatDaddy]

Ivan II...........GFS, ETA, and earlier NOGAPS.....I find this quite interesting but very hard to believe this possibilty being so late in the hurricane season for TX and SW LA.


MARINE...
CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD WITH THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE REMAINS OF IVAN...(THE SECOND) TO SEE IF IT SHOWS
ANY SIGN OF REDEVELOPMENT AS IT NEARS FL AND THEN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF. GFS/ETA BRINGS IT TO SOUTH OF LCH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PLANTS IT THERE. IVAN II ROUND TWO FOR THE
GULF...SOUNDS LIKE A BAD MOVIE. 45

[Aimless]

hopefuly it won't be very strong ...and it can be refered to as "Ivanette".

[Sanibel]

Sometimes I wonder if people can be lead to post just about anything if a model shows it. To me, you look at the satellite picture of Ivan's remains and there's nothing there. It kind of irks me that people bring headline shouts over crazy models grabbing straws when common sense sees there's nothing there...

[KatDaddy]

Clearing there still is something.......................

FXUS62 KMHX 191406
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.MARINE...COMBINATION OF LARGE 1034MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC EXTENDING DOWN ALONG EASTERN U.S....AND REMNANT
1008MB LOW THAT WAS ONCE POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES E OF CAPE HATTERAS...TO KEEP STRONG N-NE FLOW GOING FOR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MARINE FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK WITH GALES SET IN PLACE
FOR BOTH LEGS INCLUDING SOUND WATERS ALONG WITH HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
FROM HATTERAS NTH'WD. SURF CAMS/REPORTS HAVE WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
FROM HATTERAS NTH'WD RUNNING 6-8 FT WHILE SOUTH FACING CRYSTAL COAST
BEACHES PROTECTED FROM THE N-NE P-GRAD ONSLAUGHT SHOWING 1-3 FT AT
BEST. ACCORDINGLY...OFFSHORE BUOYS TO THE N PUTTING UP IMPRESSIVE
SEA HEIGHT/WIND SPEED NUMBERS WITH 44014 COMING IN WITH 14 FT SEAS
AND 30-40 KT NNE WINDS. WAVERIDER 2 MILES OUTSIDE FROM DUCK FIELD
RESEARCH FACILITY PIER SHOWING SEAS AT 11-12 FEET ALONG WITH SAME
STRONG NNE WIND. LATEST REPORT FROM CEDAR ISLAND FERRY HAS WAVES AT
THE 3-4 FT AT MIDWAY POINT...AND 25-30 KT NNE WINDS. BY THE SAME
ALLIGATOR RIVER BRIDGE TOKEN...LATEST REPORT THEIR HAS WINDS A TAD
HIGHER AT 30-35 KTS. COMBO CANADIAN HIGH/REMNANT IVAN LOW SURGE
SLOWLY WORKING IT'S WAY S AS CLKN7 REPORTING WINDS 010/21G26 KTS AND
41013 AT 020/25G29 KTS WITH 7 FT SEAS. NEED-LESS-TO-SAY...HIGH RIPS
IN PLACE TODAY FROM CAPE LOOKOUT N WITH LOW RIPS THE FLAVOR OF THE
BEACH-GOING DAY ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST. AS AFORMENTIONED CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND OVER REGION BY MID-WEEK...NORTHERLY GRADIENT
LOOSENS UP INTO 10-15 KT RANGE AS SEAS/SOUND WATERS DIMINISH SOME
ACCORDINGLY. COUPLE OF TROPICAL ITEMS TO INTERESTINGLY-LASTLY-NOTE.
ONE...JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT YOU WERE DONE WITH HIM...GFS/ETA DEPICT
REMNANT VORT OF IVAN DROPPING S (AS IT IS PRESENTLY DOING) ALONG
WESTERN ATLANTIC/US SE COAST INTO MONDAY AS IT MERGES WITH CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND AFORMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH. THE ABOVE THEN
GUIDES HIM INTO SOFLA BY TUESDAY...WHICH THEN DEPOSITS HIM ONCE
AGAIN (NOT AS HIS FORMER SELF BY ANY MEANS) INTO GULF OF MEXICO
HEADING W.

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
228 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

NCZ095-103-104-192300-
CARTERET NC-OUTER BANKS DARE NC-OUTER BANKS HYDE NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC BEACH...BEAUFORT...BUXTON...
CEDAR ISLAND...DUCK...EMERALD ISLE...FRISCO...HARKERS ISLAND...
HATTERAS VILLAGE...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...MANTEO...
MOREHEAD CITY...NAGS HEAD AND OCRACOKE
228 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

...HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS BEACHES...

THE LOW PRESSURE REMNANT OF IVAN OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS...COMBINED
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL
RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SURF TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS BEACHES FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF LOW TIDE IS WHEN RIP CURRENTS ARE AT THEIR
WORST. LOW TIDE AT CAPE HATTERAS WILL BE AROUND 6 PM TODAY.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH RESCUE PATROL AND
STAY OUT OF THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE NARROW CHANNELS OF WATER THAT
FLOW FROM THE SURF ZONE OUT TO DEEPER WATER. IF YOU GET CAUGHT IN A
RIP CURRENT...REMAIN CALM AND SWIM OR WADE PARALLEL TO THE BEACH
UNTIL OUT OF ITS PULL...THEN HEAD BACK TO SHORE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

COASTAL MARINE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1115 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

FROM S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS AND THE MONITOR NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY

AMZ154-156-192200-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20NM-
1115 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004


GALE WARNING IN EFFECT

THIS AFTERNOON
N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14
FT...HIGHEST NEAR CAPE HATTERAS.

TONIGHT
NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS.

MON AND MON NIGHT
NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

[lilbump3000]

If IVAN comes back when he enters the gulf, at best he will likely just be a tropical depression.

[crabbyhermit]

hopefuly it won't be very strong ...and it can be refered to as "Ivanette".

Ivana!

Seriously, though, John Gumm, the WWL NO met who posts on the WWL site, said the remnants might make it inot the gulf, and it will struggle to redevelop itself, but he thinks chances are slim that it will be anything major.

[jlauderdal]

Ivan II...........GFS, ETA, and earlier NOGAPS.....I find this quite interesting but very hard to believe this possibilty being so late in the hurricane season for TX and SW LA.


MARINE...
CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD WITH THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE REMAINS OF IVAN...(THE SECOND) TO SEE IF IT SHOWS
ANY SIGN OF REDEVELOPMENT AS IT NEARS FL AND THEN MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF. GFS/ETA BRINGS IT TO SOUTH OF LCH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PLANTS IT THERE. IVAN II ROUND TWO FOR THE
GULF...SOUNDS LIKE A BAD MOVIE. 45

believe it...florida nws offices have it in their afd's.

[Guest]

wow hopefully it doesnt reform.

[KWT]

what a really weird season this is!!!

[snowflake]

There is a cold front that is expected to come down towards the mid to latter part of next week. This front is suppose to make all the south into the Gulf Of Mexico. Maybe this front will pickup whatever is left of Ivan and Jeanne and put them out of their misery.

[perk]

Sanibel the same so called crazy models used to forecast the movement of tropical systems are forecasting Ivan's latest movement. I have also read several NWS discussions covering this topic.Is it your opinion that they should simply ignore these models.

[southerngale]

Sometimes I wonder if people can be lead to post just about anything if a model shows it. To me, you look at the satellite picture of Ivan's remains and there's nothing there. It kind of irks me that people bring headline shouts over crazy models grabbing straws when common sense sees there's nothing there...

The NWS in various areas mention this, several models (whether right or wrong) bring it into the western Gulf. Exactly what is wrong with making this thread and discussing the possiblity? This is a tropical weather discussion forum and though we've been lucky this far west so far, it's hard to believe you criticize someone for bringing up what could happen, and get irked by it. geesh

Sorry KatDaddy...absolutely nothing wrong with this thread. This is why we're here...to discuss, learn, and inform.

[Josephine96]

I like that bad movie thing lol.. At least he has some sense of humor

[perk]

Southerngale i totally agree, this board is about discussing and learning about tropical weather, and KD's post was appropriate and appreciated.

[TampaFl]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.CURRENTLY...1031 MB HIGH SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO BUILD
SOUTH TOWARDS EASTERN GREAT LAKES. VORT MAX (REMNANTS OF IVAN)
WAS WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST AND MOVING SW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH AND THE REMNANTS OF
IVAN IS PRODUCING A MODERATELY STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA...CLOUD
STREETS QUITE APPARENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS (STRATO-CU) WAS JUST EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST AND WAS
PUSHING SW.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON MOVING
VORT MAX (REMNANTS OF IVAN) THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND WENT WITH A NORTH
SOUTH POP GRADIENT BEGINNING MONDAY RANGING FROM NO POPS IN
GEORGIA TO 40 PCT ACROSS THE SE CWA. AS VORT MAX MOVES FURTHER
SW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN
POPS ACROSS THE SE CWA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY. POPS ACROSS
GEORGIA WILL BE NEAR NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COASTLINE WHERE WE PUT ISOLATED THERE.

.LONG TERM (THU THRU SUN)...TIGHT ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX THURSDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THE GFS IS INDICATING ANOTHER NE SURGE NEXT SUNDAY...
BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT ONE. FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
TS JEANNE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE
WITH ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING EXPECTED NEXT 5 DAYS. WILL CONTINUE
FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS. MAIN CONCERN FOR UPCOMING
WEAK WILL BE THE LARGE NE SWELLS AND HEAVY SURF.
&&

.MARINE...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF IVAN AND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS. MAY SEE GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. GALE WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY. SEAS ON THE INCREASE FROM RESULTING
LARGE NE SWELLS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORM EVOLUTION AND PATH.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 80 61 82 / 00 10 10 10
SSI 65 78 70 79 / 00 10 10 10
JAX 66 82 67 82 / 10 20 20 20
SGJ 72 81 73 81 / 10 30 30 20
GNV 66 82 68 83 / 00 20 20 20
OCF 67 82 69 84 / 10 30 30 30
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SCA FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH OUT 60NM.
GA...SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH OUT 60NM.
&&

$$

PP/JH

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTAE 191854
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.SYNOPSIS...COOL START THIS MORNING WITH MOST INLAND SITES REPORTING
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WINDS WITH THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A STRONG VORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN CURRENTLY EAST OF FLORIDA GETTING TRAPPED
UNDER THE RIDGE AND CROSSING THE PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EMERGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ETA BOTH
CLOSE OFF A WEAK LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ETA AND GFS SHOW THE FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD SKIRTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND MONDAY AND OVER THE
REMAINING FLORIDA ZONES ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT POPS
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ON MONDAY AND EXTEND WESTWARD ON TUESDAY. WHAT IS
LEFT OF THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER
THE ENSUING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR POPS OVER
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FLORIDA ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY).
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING IN
IT'S WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN
U.S. THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND MAKE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT IS WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER MY NORTHERN CWA EITHER LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW LOWER END CHANCE POPS WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THE SAME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH JEANNE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THE
HIGH DROPPING TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN CROSSING
FLORIDA AND ENTERING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ALL MODELS
SUPPORT AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA OVER OUR OFFSHORE LEGS MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 62 84 65 84/ 00 00 10 20
PFN 63 84 65 84/ 00 00 00 20
DHN 58 80 59 82/ 00 00 00 00
ABY 57 80 60 82/ 00 00 00 00
VLD 60 81 63 83/ 00 00 10 10
CTY 64 84 67 85/ 00 20 20 30

&&

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...SCEC ALL LEGS.

&&

$$

BARRY

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMLB 191750
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
150 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...LARGE AREA OF MARINE SC MOVING SW DOWN THE ATLC COAST WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FM NE TO SW OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF RIDGE AXIS WILL MOISTEN THE LOW
LEVELS QUITE RAPIDLY WITH LOW LVL CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID LEVEL
IMPULSE RETROGRADING FROM THE E PROVIDING SOME LIFT. WILL UNDERCUT
MAV GUID POPS AS MAGNITUDE OF SFC REFLECTION MAY BE OVERDONE. PCPN
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND N OF THE CAPE IN STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW.

MON-TUE...VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION (REMAINS
OF TC IVAN) WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND AROUND THE
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF THICK STRATOCU WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAN BY TYPICAL DIURNAL
CONVECTION AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION. WITH THE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW-MID 80S...WELL BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

WED-SUN...DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH RIDGE POSITIONED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. OCCASIONAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
MEANWHILE...TC JEANNE MEANDERING WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND INTENSIFYING JEANNE WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SCA/SCEC HEADLINES.
IN ADDITION...DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS FROM TC JEANNE TO THE
EAST WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LARGE WAVES...DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND AREAS OF BEACH EROSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 82 75 84 / 30 40 30 30
MCO 69 83 73 84 / 20 40 30 30
MLB 74 82 75 83 / 20 40 30 30
VRB 73 84 75 84 / 20 40 30 30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH.
RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BLOTTMAN
LONG TERM...HIRSCH

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 191727
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
126 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUE)...LATEST MODELS INSIST ON STRONG JET
DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PUTTING
CWA INTO FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
SURFACE TROF MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...FOR ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION AND
RAINFALL. I HAVE RAISED POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO THIS
FAVORABLE INTERACTION. IN ADDITION...MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY...AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP THE PROCESS OUT AS WELL.

WITH STRONG HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...GIVING SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE IN ON THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT NORTH OF TAMPA...
AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING AT ALL ON MONDAY. MY
CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY EVEN TURN OUT TO BE TOO HIGH.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SUN)...FOR THE TIME BEING WILL DAMPEN OUT THE
FEATURE OUT IN THE GULF THAT APPEARS TO BE THE REMNANTS OF IVAN BUT
WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN FOR WED. OTHERWISE DEEP RIDGING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AFTER WED. WINDS REMAIN NE INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL DECREASE AS THE RIDGING MOVES OFF THE EAST U.S.
COAST...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AMD PROVIDE THE PROSPECTS
OF A NICE BOATING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WIND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
DISPERSIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE ANY FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 072 085 073 088 / 00 60 40 50
FMY 073 088 072 088 / 00 50 40 50
GIF 071 085 072 088 / 00 60 40 50
SRQ 073 086 075 088 / 00 60 40 50
BKV 068 083 071 088 / 10 50 40 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALSHEIMER
LONG TERM...RKR



[snowflake]

hopefuly it won't be very strong ...and it can be refered to as "Ivanette".

The Weather Channel said that it would be a much weaker feature. They also talked about it taking aim on Texas after passing across Florida.

[wxman57]

I think before Ivan can redevelop, there will have to be something significant on satellite imagery. Right now, there is not much to see. There's a cold front extending down the east U.S. coast with a patch of low-level clouds drifting SW toward Florida. The models appear to be seeing a some mid level vorticity center. I wouldn't worry too much about redevelopment without any significant convection.