Cooler air for SE coast good news for Jeannne potential?

[LarryWx]

The air temp.'s along the SE US coast have cooled considerably to below normal. This cool air is expected to persist over the next few days, only slowly modifying with strong NE low level winds. Whereas SST's have been mainly in the lower 80's just offshore the SE coast, I expect many of those readings to fall at least into the upper 70's over the next two days or so. This is good news for those who don't want a major hurricane to hit the SE coast. IF Jeanne were to later loop around and hit the SE coast from N FL northward, this will mean a weaker Jeanne than otherwise would have been the case, perhaps a full category imo. This may very well cause a weakening just before landfall if it were to approach the coast as a major hurricane. Of course, it may never come close to the coast.

[vacanechaser]

not to sure that is accurate.. imo... a tropical cyclone is driven by heat... the "core" of a system is usually much warmer than the surrounding air.. with that being said, the cooler air coming in may help to intensify jeanne in her process of releasing that heat.. as long as the temperature differance is enough, i think jeanne will reach hurricane status quickly and maintain that.. as far as the water temps, it would need to be a west wind to cause up welling to cool the water off that much to have any real effect on jeanne... a northeast wind just will not have what it takes to do it... jmo....

[snowflake]

I heard that Jeanne would encounter some shear and cooler waters along the coast.

[LarryWx]

not to sure that is accurate.. imo... a tropical cyclone is driven by heat... the "core" of a system is usually much warmer than the surrounding air.. with that being said, the cooler air coming in may help to intensify jeanne in her process of releasing that heat.. as long as the temperature differance is enough, i think jeanne will reach hurricane status quickly and maintain that.. as far as the water temps, it would need to be a west wind to cause up welling to cool the water off that much to have any real effect on jeanne... a northeast wind just will not have what it takes to do it... jmo....

I agree that the northeast winds wouldn't be a setup to cause upwelling. This would simply be a cool-off caused by the coastal waters being exposed to lower air temperatures, thus causing heat to be lost from the ocean. Cooler air temperatures is the prime cause of cooling fronm summer to winter rather than upwelling. This would be just the beginning of the drop since it is the first cool airmass of September.

Regarding the cooler air helping to intensify Jeanne, imo that could only be the case if it weren't a purely tropical system.

[LarryWx]

To put it another way: 70-75F air for several days or longer over coastal SST's that are in the low 80's will not be able to maintain low 80's for long.
I'm not talking about the Gulf Stream itself, but instead closer to the coast.