TD 13

[JtSmarts]

...Tropical depression forms over eastern tropical Atlantic...

at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was
located near latitude 13.3 north...longitude 33.2 west or about
645 miles...1035 km...west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...13.3 N... 33.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.

Forecaster Lawrence


Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2004

the area of disturbed weather between the Cape Verde Islands and
Hurricane Karl is well enough organized to be upgraded to a
tropical depression. The SHIPS and GFDL models increase the wind
speed by 20 and 45 kt respectively over the next few days. The
official forecast is less agressive...only increasing the wind to 45
kt. This is based on the suggestion on satellite imagery that the
outflow from Karl is impinging on the northern portion of the
depressions convection and may have an inhibiting effect.

The initial motion estimate is 270/06. The depression is not
represented well in the GFS and in several other models. The track
forecast philosophy is for a general west-northwest to
northwestward motion for the next 120 hours toward a weakness in
the subtropical ridge left by Hurricane Karl. The official track
forecast is similar to the GFDL model.

Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/2100z 13.3n 33.2w 30 kt
12hr VT 20/0600z 13.6n 34.8w 35 kt
24hr VT 20/1800z 14.6n 37.2w 40 kt
36hr VT 21/0600z 15.8n 39.3w 45 kt
48hr VT 21/1800z 17.1n 41.5w 45 kt
72hr VT 22/1800z 19.0n 44.0w 45 kt
96hr VT 23/1800z 21.5n 46.0w 40 kt
120hr VT 24/1800z 25.0n 48.0w 40 kt

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[Foladar]

Fishy!

[MBismyPlayground]

I Hope

[chris_fit]

Ya fish

[Brent]

Puny fish too. Only a 50 mph TS?

[fci]

Lisa is going to join her brother for an Azorian(sp) Fish Fry....