JEANNE MODELS

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charleston_hugo_veteran
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JEANNE MODELS

#1 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:28 am

:roll: :roll:


Image
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KWT
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#2 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:43 am

oh my god that is very bad!!!!!

although that's good news for you people in the U.S,it's bad news for us in the U.K.

It's still in a complete mess and it's in complete limbo.
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#3 Postby TampaFl » Sun Sep 19, 2004 11:05 am

:eek: :eek: :eek: ,Which way do I go, Which way do I go.
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#4 Postby tronbunny » Sun Sep 19, 2004 12:42 pm

visions of a roadrunner cartoon...
Wile E Coyote has just been hit on the head witha label of "Ivan Co." and he sees roadrunners circling his head in a fashion similar to the models for Jeanne...
wish I could draw cartoons.
well, why should I when the models are already doing it?

:splat:
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#5 Postby caribepr » Sun Sep 19, 2004 12:54 pm

If anyone wants to play pro met, now is the time! I forecast this is going to go somewhere and do something, sometime. And I'm 100% sure of it!
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Sep 19, 2004 12:54 pm

Actually, the 00z global models, minus the GFS, had a much better consensus of overall evolution of a loopy-loop and then turning back towards the coast ... coming close to Florida before curving northward along the GA coast and coming into SC ...

SF
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#7 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Sep 19, 2004 4:15 pm

:lol:

still looking ridiculous!
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ColdFront77

#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 19, 2004 4:32 pm

Continued uncertainty! The mid to latter portion of the forecast model data is too far east in my opinion with a system that we know pretty much sure at the present time will not move much in the next one to three days.
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#9 Postby Skywatch_NC » Sun Sep 19, 2004 4:42 pm

The UKMET there is hilarious! :lol: Looks like a tennis lob shot to MD and then back! :eek: :lol:

Eric 8-)
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ColdFront77

#10 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 19, 2004 4:44 pm

Yeah, the UKMET is usually not that far off, considering, too. :lol:
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#11 Postby SwampDawg » Sun Sep 19, 2004 4:46 pm

why do we even look at the models?? :-)
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ColdFront77

#12 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:01 pm

They should be looked at... there needs to be some semblance of guidance. :)
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#13 Postby SwampDawg » Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:05 pm

I would think that satellite should give them enough guidance. There's no reason to go outside of 3 days anyway.
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ColdFront77

#14 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:08 pm

The various weather satellites show the current and previous hours of imagery.
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#15 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:17 pm

The UKMET has it at roughly 39N that one time and not 29N, which is what they probably meant.

Needless to say, it is funny that they show that on a map! :roflmao:

-Andrew92
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#16 Postby SwampDawg » Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:20 pm

I understand that, but the trend with models are only good when the storm is'nt too far our. I think we try to use the models too much...ex: 7 days out. I mean, come on, has there been a model yet that has nailed the track of storms that far out? I could be wrong, but it's just my opinion.
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ColdFront77

#17 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:22 pm

I don't believe there is a forecast model going out seven days.

Note: I do see your use of "ex."
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#18 Postby SwampDawg » Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:24 pm

ok...I'll be good...I don't know much about models. The only thing i'm good at is sports writing and play-by-play. 8-)
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Guest

#19 Postby Guest » Sun Sep 19, 2004 6:08 pm

Models are probability theory at work, and are statistically vaid insofar as they show trends. Are they "engraved on stone tablets?" Of course not. However, they are guides for what may probably happen. Being a psychologist, I am aware of the need to generate case studies in probability.
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rbaker

#20 Postby rbaker » Sun Sep 19, 2004 6:14 pm

gfs for one I know goes out 144 hrs and beyond. How reliable it is, is another story. The TPC only goes out 5 days, which I don't like either. 3 days is much more consistant.
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