HOU-GAL AFD.......Ivan the Second

ColdFront77 · #21 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:07 pm

Strange how the Florida NWS offices are forecasting rain with the system.

Ivanova · #22 Postby **Ivanova** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:07 pm

Methinks Ivan the Russian has been playing possum :cool:

*

#23 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 5:58 pm

OK. I'll bite. What is CWA? After all these years of watching the tropics this is the first time I remember seeing this acronym. Central West Atlantic?

Thanks,
Lynn

#24 Postby **amawea** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 6:14 pm

J.B. at accueweather has been saying this for 2 days and was called crazy last night. Well, he's not so crazy after all huh. The models came into agreement with what he was saying, and now the NHC is jumping all over it. You still reading this thread SANIBEL.
Amawea

calidoug · #25 Postby **calidoug** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 7:11 pm

The NHC is jumping all over it? Where?

There's nothing left of Ivan. Look at the water vapor loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's a *cloud-free* spot dry air, sitting in the middle of a pool of even drier air!

There will be no "Ivan the Second"

ColdFront77 · #26 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 7:15 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:OK. I'll bite. What is CWA? After all these years of watching the tropics this is the first time I remember seeing this acronym. Central West Atlantic?

Thanks,
Lynn

CWA stands for County Warning Area.

#27 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 7:37 pm

Thanks, Coldfront.

Sanibel · #28 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 7:38 pm

Not to criticize personally, but where I come from you have to have a storm to make warning calls about a west Gulf return and freak season. Right now Ivan looks to be marching pretty naked out there with all his cheering parade watchers...

I wasn't flaming the original poster. I was trying to inform, learn, discuss etc myself (except maybe with something real rather than what is touted on almost universally-wrong models)

ROCK · #29 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 7:51 pm

calidoug wrote:The NHC is jumping all over it? Where?

There's nothing left of Ivan. Look at the water vapor loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's a *cloud-free* spot dry air, sitting in the middle of a pool of even drier air!

There will be no "Ivan the Second"

your right Cali theres nothing there THATS why the NWS says something is there and the models are picking up on it......but you know you right and they are all wrong as always..... :roll:

TxWx · #30 Postby **TxWx** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 8:23 pm

Doubt much becomes of the "remants of Ivan" as it enters the Gulf as it pertains to tropical development.

However, it could interact with an approaching cold front by the middle and end of the week across Texas to bring some needed rain to east Texas. Maybe a big rain maker if all parts of the equation come together at the right time.

Still can't rule out tropical developement of the system over the Gulf this week, but I would be surprised if it was more than a depression or weak TS if tropical at all.

Thoughts?

ColdFront77 · #31 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 8:27 pm

A frontal system would make it difficult for Ivan's remnants to make it as far west as Texas... at least not for too long.

#32 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:36 am

calidoug wrote:The NHC is jumping all over it? Where?

There's nothing left of Ivan. Look at the water vapor loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's a *cloud-free* spot dry air, sitting in the middle of a pool of even drier air!

There will be no "Ivan the Second"

Oh, these words will come back to haunt you, Cali. The satellite and water vapor loops appear to contradict your bold prediction.

#33 Postby **Houstonia** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:57 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 200727
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
226 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. WE START OUT TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...
ALL EYES BEGIN TO TURN TO OUR EAST AS WE WATCH INCREASING MOISTURE
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN...AND THE MODELS DO DEVELOP A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE GULF. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM
TAKES ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY (>2 INCHES) ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PLAN ON INTRODUCING LOW POPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN INCREASE
THEM FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WILL LOWER POPS A LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO/THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR WHAT
TPC/NHC HAS TO SAY IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE ARE ON "BEARS WATCH"
STATUS. 42
&&

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE
IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT ANGLETON WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE. 46
&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL TOADY WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS.
A CHANGE COULD BE IN THE OFFING LATER THIS WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY WESTWARD. IT MAY REACH THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY. 46
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 68 91 69 90 / 00 00 20 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 68 90 70 89 / 00 20 20 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 76 88 77 85 / 00 20 20 20 30
&&

$$

HOU-GAL AFD.......Ivan the Second

from the Hou/Galv 2:30 a.m. discussion

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