2004 names that you believe will be the big one(s)

[Yankeegirl]

I am going to go with Lisa... Cause thats my name!! I think its going to hit Houston/Galveston just like Alicia did... Who knows!!

[rainydaze]

OK, Gaston and Karl.....numbers 7 & 11.

[Anonymous]

Karl and Ivan seem bad. Maybe because they are quick to spell???

[Hurrilurker]

I'll say Gaston and Ivan, but this brings up another question I have: what happens when all the middle names are used up? It seems like names in the E-I range (or so) might be the most likely to be used, coming in the heart of hurricane seasons. Eventually some section will use many more names than others. Shouldn't they start rotating the lists? Start each year with a different section of the alphabet (and wrap around back to A)? I mean Hurricane Zeke...the poor guy just has no chance.

[cycloneye]

In the WPAC in some years they go to the end of the alphabet and start again with A.

.I sill stick with Ivan as the big one this season.

[bevgo]

Charley--for very personal reasons--LOL

[Jenniec]

I'll take a guess that it will be Gastón or Iván. Iván is my youngest son's name and he can be rather "stormy" at times LOL.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Just for fun...

ALEX: Strong Tropical Storm near Louisiana in mid June.

BONNIE: Category 1 Hurricane in Southwestern Caribbean...across Nicaragua in mid July. (Similar to Cesar-1996)

CHARLEY: Sheared Tropical Storm in Central Atlantic, also mid July.

DANIELLE: Category 2 Storm in late July/early August, beginning north of Puerto Rico, through Bahamas, and skirting the coastline. (Similar to Dennis-1999)

EARL: Category 4 Hurricane in Cape Verde..to Central Atlantic. Threatens Lesser Antilles similar to Luis in 1995...may approach and make landfall there if absorbing Frances, if not, then thrown into North Atlantic as a Category 3 by the Fujiwara effect. Then threatens Bermuda, but Bermuda survives with spiral rainbands and eventually, becomes a fish storm. Early to Mid August.

FRANCES: Sister storm of Earl....forms WEST of Earl. If not absorbed into Earl early on as a tropical storm, then the Fujiwara effect should push Frances into Central Lesser Antilles as a Category 2 Hurricane. Should continue west into Caribbean and either push across Central America or be drawn into Gulf as a Major Hurricane. Early to Mid August.

GASTON: Occurs with Earl and Frances, but in Gulf of Mexico. Becomes a flooding Category 1 Hurricane, making landfall near Mobile, AL...then stalls near Atlanta. Mid August.

HERMINE: Weak Tropical Storm. Makes landfall in South Carolina at approximately 50 mph. Mid to Late August.

IVAN: Forms off the coast of Africa. Moves westward, hooks northward, and moves westward again around 35-40 N. Category 2 Hurricane, Late August to Early September.

JEANNE: Tropical Storm in Gulf...65 mph.. moves into Mexico. Early September.

KARL: Wondering tropical storm in weak steering currents in Southwestern Caribbean...makes landfall in Nicaragua...70 mph. Early to Mid September.

LISA: (For some odd reason, I keep thinking this will be the big one) Begins as tropical wave off the coast of Africa...continues westward as a Category 3 Hurricane into Caribbean. Fluctuates in strength until it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, where it explodes to a Category 4 or 5. Makes landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Mid September to Early October.

MATTHEW: Flooding, deadly Category 3 Hurricane in Belize/Yucatan. Early to Mid October.

NICOLE: Tropical Storm in North Atlantic (65 mph). Late October.

OTTO: Strong Tropical Storm to Category 2 Hurricane in Caribbean. November.

>>PAULA may or may not occur depending on atmospheric variables.<<

[GalvestonDuck]

I say charley-I thought bonnie was retired- Wasnt it a bad one for the carolinas a few years ago??

I'll say Alex, Charles, Ivan, & Matthew.

*snicker* Charles?

Charley-- 3 out of 4 times Charley has been a hurricane. He came close but just missed in 1998.

CHARLEY Could Be "The Doomsday Hurricane" Im Warning About!
July 31st 2004 "The Next Blue Moon"
Let's Waite And See?

Oh, good gosh! Not quite -- but this is no doubt one of the Big Ones!

Charley--for very personal reasons--LOL

I won't ask.

[cycloneye]

Wow GD you digged very back in the pages to find this thread. But the question is if Charley will be the big one in the season because we are not at the peak of the season yet and other systems will form in the weeks ahead.

[GalvestonDuck]

Yup, I'm all about that "Search" function button.

[AL Chili Pepper]

vbhoutex's description of Matthew is eerie.

[HalloweenGale]

IVAN......UGHHHHH reminds me of the most dangerous game

[GalvestonDuck]

vbhoutex's description of Matthew is eerie.

Ooh, you're right! I missed that because I was looking at Charley descriptions.

Wrong name, wrong month...but other than that --

MatthewWill be talked about for decades to come. Develops in Carribean S of Cuba and starts N radpidly developing to CAT3 strength before it passes over Cuba on a NNWerly course into the GOM about 100 miles W of Key West. As he moves over the GOM he strengthens to CAT4 status before being turned back NE by an early season cold front which brings him in at high CAT3 or low CAT4 strength right over the Tampa/ St. Pete area. This will be the long dreaded major coming at FL from the SW with DEVASTATING STORM SURGE from Ft. Myers to the Tampa Bay area and major wind damage from Sarasota to Tampa/St. Pete. By the time he traverses FL in a NE direction he is down to TS strength as he exits at Daytona Beach and heads out to sea. Late October.

[opera ghost]

I read the Matthew description and got shivers up and down my spine.

I give my award of the week to vbhoutex for nailing everything but the name and the month.

[vbhoutex]

*vbhoutex bows* Thanks OG!! I didn't realize what Ihad done earlier when I read it again. Realy is eerie!!! Wrong name wrontime but darn near what may happen. YIKES!!!!! I pray I am way off base with that!!!!!!

[GalvestonDuck]

Frances: ICK. Not the name I fear most, but right up there. Reads of MAJOR hurricane to me anyway.

Frances and Otto.

My picks..............Frances and Ivan!

Bonnie and Frances for starters, I'd say, though I can't give reasons.

Frances-- Possibly facing a forced retirement after 2004. Frances might try to go out with a bang. Odds are in her favor. Frances has been used 7 times, 5 as a hurricane, 3 as a major hurricane.

So right.

Frances will a major hurricane with a potential landfall from Wilmington to just north of Hatteras. This could be the one to look out for. Could be a real problem for the NC Outer Banks which could see a lot of damage as well as the reappearance of the inlet that cut through the island a year ago. Inland, good potential for wind damage and flooding as far inland as Goldsboro to Raleigh.

No real science here, just a hunch.

Not a good call on landfall (but hey, close...it is SE US).

Frances-Bad storm. Deadly, devastating to someone(maybe not the U.S. though)

Frances A force to be reckoned with! Begins just E of the islands and moves into the E Carribean as a strong TS growing to CAT2 strength as it approaches Jamaica. As it comes through the Yucatan Channel on a NWerly course brushing the NE tip of the Peninsula she attains CAT3 status and continues strengthening. Unfortunately landfall as a CAT4 bordering on CAT5 anywhere from Kingsville, TX to Cameron LA. Possibly a Northern MX storm also. Late August.

Not as good as you did with Charley, David. But you definitely pegged intensity also.

FRANCES: Sister storm of Earl....forms WEST of Earl. If not absorbed into Earl early on as a tropical storm, then the Fujiwara effect should push Frances into Central Lesser Antilles as a Category 2 Hurricane. Should continue west into Caribbean and either push across Central America or be drawn into Gulf as a Major Hurricane. Early to Mid August.

[GalvestonDuck]

Ivan will be pretty bad, continuing the streak of severe atlantic "I" hurricanes, started in 2001 with Iris.

Ivan: THE BIG ONE. I can see this name becoming a horrendous hurricane, even if not in '04, sometime in the future....ugh this name gives me the willies.

Karl: Another major candidate, to me, for "the big one." Almost ditto to Ivan.

And there you have it....sorry if I freaked out too much at some names, but that's my opinion, right or wrong. Who knows, maybe I'm dead wrong. Ivan and Karl are my picks, with Frances right behind.

-Andrew92

Please....NO KARL!

I bet Ivan turns out to be a dud. Every year there's always *that ONE name* that sticks out, and it always turns out to be an out-to-sea TS.

Dang it, Lyle...I wish you'd been right on this one.

I'll say Gaston and Ivan... Ivan being the worst.

Do you pick Derby winners also?

Earl devastating Louisiana as a category 5, and Ivan smacking North Carolina as a category 3.

Earl had tuh diiiiiie.

I see a LOT of people thinking about "Ivan the Terrible" ... however, if I were to able to see that far into the future, I'd buy some Powerball tickets with the winning numbers.

But for the hell of it, I think that the strongest storm of the season ... might be Gaston.

Gaston definitely was bad for your area.

Danielle because she has always been weak over the past years.....Ivan the same thought (I think)......and Lisa because thats my wife's name

My picks..............Frances and Ivan!

I'll say Alex, Charles, Ivan, & Matthew.

Ivan-- Used twice. Both times a hurricane. Ivan's in a favorable spot. Since 2000, the "I" name has been a major hurricane. Isaac (4), Iris (4), Isidore (3), and Isabel (5). Plus, the last "I" name used to NOT become a hurricane was Iris in 1989.

Ivan-Oh dear. This sounds like the one. In 1998 it was a fish, but this sounds like a big one.

IvanAnother force to be reckoned with!! A Classic CV system which reaches CAT5 status near the same area Andrew started strengthening. However takes a more Northerly track than Andrew looking like he will head for the Carolinas. Holds that track till the Bermuda high builds back in and pushes him as a CAT5 storm to landfall in the Saint Augustine to Savannah , GA area, the first MAJOR in that area in decades! Fortunately, weakens rapidly after landfall in the sparsely populated areas of the middle GA coast, but still causes major damage from flooding in GA and SC. Mid-September to late September.

I think the intense storms this year will be Danielle, Ivan, Karl, Lisa, Amd Otto. These names all sound like they should be on the news, headliners. Oh and i forgot one other name......Hurricane Matthew

I'll say Gaston and Ivan

I still stick with Ivan as the big one this season.

I'll take a guess that it will be Gastón or Iván. Iván is my youngest son's name and he can be rather "stormy" at times LOL.

[Hurricanehink]

Posted: Jan 09, 2004 3:41 PM Post subject: 2004 names that you believe will be the big one(s)

I say Charley and Ivan will be the big ones this 2004 season.

Wow! Great job cycloneye.
Any other biggies?

[Andrew92]

Here's my run-down of the names:

Alex: Possibly hurricane but nothing major

Bonnie: Sorry BFez, but weak tropical storm

Charley: Similar to his cousin in 1998, though less flooding

Danielle: The first name that has me somewhat weary, and I was weary about this one back in 1998 too...hurricane here but beyond that dunno

Earl: Threatens to become a hurricane before landfall but just misses, think Barry of 2001

Frances: ICK. Not the name I fear most, but right up there. Reads of MAJOR hurricane to me anyway.

Gaston: Major hurricane that makes a near miss on the U.S.

Hermine: Hurricane but nothing major, though stronger than Alex.

Ivan: THE BIG ONE. I can see this name becoming a horrendous hurricane, even if not in '04, sometime in the future....ugh this name gives me the willies.

Jeanne: Another name that sounds like a landfalling TC....kinda like Earl.

Karl: Another major candidate, to me, for "the big one." Almost ditto to Ivan.

Lisa: Tropical storm out in the Atlantic.

Matthew: Category 2 hurricane.

And there you have it....sorry if I freaked out too much at some names, but that's my opinion, right or wrong. Who knows, maybe I'm dead wrong. Ivan and Karl are my picks, with Frances right behind.

-Andrew92

Well, I have to critique myself so far, so bear with me.

Alex: Almost completely nailed this one, had it not become a Cat 3 on its way out to sea.

Bonnie: Bingo

Charley: Oops....I began having second thoughts on this name in July, but I didn't quite think it would be one of the big ones.

Danielle: 50%. I thought it would hit land, which it didn't, but I thought it would be a hurricane.

Earl: Well it DID threaten, but fizzled before it could make much of an impression. Sorta like Debby but no hurricane.

Frances: Bingo

Gaston: Nope, it was a tropical storm, near hurricane intensity, that hit SC and caused major flooding.

Hermine: Oooooops.......

Ivan: I knew it, I knew it

Jeanne: Still around but I won't nail this one since I didn't expect it to become a hurricane, which it briefly was at one point, believe it or not.

Karl: Maybe I blew this one, we'll see. I hope I did.

Lisa: Looking at the forecast, I may have nailed this one.

Matthew: TBD

Not a bad forecast for something just based on what the names would sound like. Of course, I wish I was wrong on Ivan and Frances. With my hopes, the rest of the hurricane season will be very quiet, but only Mother Nature knows what's in store for us.

-Andrew92