Ivan Remnants link

[Cookiely]

Can someone tell me if this is the remnant of Ivan in the right hand corner coming into Florida?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[TampaFl]

I think it might be. Also check out the WV loop, appears to be an mid to upper level low moving into the NE Gulf. IMHO I think this might be the remenants of "Ivan". Thoughts and comments welcomed.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Robert

[ColdFront77]

Excerpt from the Melbourne and Miami National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion issued
at 1:50 PM and 8:40 PM Eastern Daylight Time, respectively on Sunday, September 19th, 2004:

MON-TUE...VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION (REMAINS
OF TC IVAN) WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND AROUND THE
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF THICK STRATOCU WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DRIVEN MORE BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAN BY TYPICAL DIURNAL
CONVECTION AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION. WITH THE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW-MID 80S...WELL BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

AT 00Z VORT MAX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN...IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 23 KNOTS OFF OF THE FLORIDA NE COAST NEAR 29.5N 77.5W.
EXTRAPOLATING THIS MOTION...IT WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR FORT
PIERCE-VERO BEACH TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 12Z AND MOVE INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z[/size]

[Cookiely]

Just found this discussion for Tampa. I'm not sure what that feature is in the right corner of the previous link. The Ivan remnants are already in the Gulf.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 191727
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
126 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUE)...LATEST MODELS INSIST ON STRONG JET
DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PUTTING
CWA INTO FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
SURFACE TROF MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...FOR ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION AND
RAINFALL. I HAVE RAISED POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO THIS
FAVORABLE INTERACTION. IN ADDITION...MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY...AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP THE PROCESS OUT AS WELL.

WITH STRONG HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...GIVING SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE IN ON THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT NORTH OF TAMPA...
AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING AT ALL ON MONDAY. MY
CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY EVEN TURN OUT TO BE TOO HIGH.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SUN)...FOR THE TIME BEING WILL DAMPEN OUT THE
FEATURE OUT IN THE GULF THAT APPEARS TO BE THE REMNANTS OF IVAN BUT
WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN FOR WED. OTHERWISE DEEP RIDGING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AFTER WED. WINDS REMAIN NE INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL DECREASE AS THE RIDGING MOVES OFF THE EAST U.S.
COAST...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AMD PROVIDE THE PROSPECTS
OF A NICE BOATING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WIND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
DISPERSIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE ANY FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 072 085 073 088 / 00 60 40 50
FMY 073 088 072 088 / 00 50 40 50
GIF 071 085 072 088 / 00 60 40 50
SRQ 073 086 075 088 / 00 60 40 50
BKV 068 083 071 088 / 10 50 40 40

&&