Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 19, 2004
...TD thirteen moving westward over the far eastern Atlantic...
At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 13.2 north... longitude 34.1 west or
about 700 miles...1130 km... west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.
The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM AST position...13.2 N... 34.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am AST.
Forecaster Jarvinen/Aguirre
11 PM: TD # 13 -- 35 MPH, 1004 MB, moving west at 12 MPH...
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yoda
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5 DAY MAP -- http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html
Getting close to Lesser Antilles it APPEARS...
Getting close to Lesser Antilles it APPEARS...
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yoda
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2004
the initial motion estimate is 270/10. This motion is
expected to continue through the next 24 hours around the southern
periphery of the deep-layered ridge to its north...the same ridge
that is moving Karl. The consensus of the forecast track models
suggest that the system will move in a west to west-northwest
direction. Based upon this guidance...the official forecast track
has been adjusted significantly to the left of the previous
forecast track. This a major change to the previous forecast
package.
TD thirteen is exhibiting very cold top convection near the center
and intermittently in a band within 160 nm to its NW. The system
has not shown any significant organization over the past the
previous 6 hours as it has been encountering some easterly shear.
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB are
2.0...just below tropical storm strength. Since the depression is
now following a more westerly track than previously forecasted...
the latest SHIPS model guidance indicates that the shear over the
system will decrease over the next 36 hours... allowing for
strengthening to a tropical storm. After this time the shear
increases...although...continued strengthening is forecast. The
official forecast follows the SHIPS guidance.
Forecaster Aguirre/Jarvinen
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/0300z 13.2n 34.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 20/1200z 13.5n 35.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 21/0000z 13.7n 37.0w 40 kt
36hr VT 21/1200z 13.9n 38.4w 45 kt
48hr VT 22/0000z 14.1n 39.9w 50 kt
72hr VT 23/0000z 14.8n 42.9w 55 kt
96hr VT 24/0000z 15.3n 45.6w 55 kt
120hr VT 25/0000z 15.9n 48.6w 55 kt
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2004
the initial motion estimate is 270/10. This motion is
expected to continue through the next 24 hours around the southern
periphery of the deep-layered ridge to its north...the same ridge
that is moving Karl. The consensus of the forecast track models
suggest that the system will move in a west to west-northwest
direction. Based upon this guidance...the official forecast track
has been adjusted significantly to the left of the previous
forecast track. This a major change to the previous forecast
package.
TD thirteen is exhibiting very cold top convection near the center
and intermittently in a band within 160 nm to its NW. The system
has not shown any significant organization over the past the
previous 6 hours as it has been encountering some easterly shear.
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB are
2.0...just below tropical storm strength. Since the depression is
now following a more westerly track than previously forecasted...
the latest SHIPS model guidance indicates that the shear over the
system will decrease over the next 36 hours... allowing for
strengthening to a tropical storm. After this time the shear
increases...although...continued strengthening is forecast. The
official forecast follows the SHIPS guidance.
Forecaster Aguirre/Jarvinen
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/0300z 13.2n 34.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 20/1200z 13.5n 35.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 21/0000z 13.7n 37.0w 40 kt
36hr VT 21/1200z 13.9n 38.4w 45 kt
48hr VT 22/0000z 14.1n 39.9w 50 kt
72hr VT 23/0000z 14.8n 42.9w 55 kt
96hr VT 24/0000z 15.3n 45.6w 55 kt
120hr VT 25/0000z 15.9n 48.6w 55 kt
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