Ivan -- Moving on shore Cocoa FL! - 40MPH Winds!

[CocoaBill]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BUFFET VOLUSIA/BREVARD COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...

...NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG COAST TOWARD MORNING...

H5 VORT MAX AND ASSOC WEAK SFC REFLECTION (REMNANTS OF TC IVAN)
CURRENTLY ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF FLORIDA...WILL PUSH SW AROUND
LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND WEAK SFC LOW IS PRODUCING A
SURGE OF STRONG N/NE WINDS SPREADING S/SW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LIKELY REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WIND SURGE. WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE (40 MPH) WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF FT PIERCE INLET AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...ESP
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THIS WIND SURGE. A NARROW SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES
STRETCHING NE-SW COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING BETWEEN COCOA
BEACH AND FORT PIERCE.

HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS FOR WINDS/POPS AND TEMPS
OVERNIGHT.

[CocoaBill]

Here it is:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

[Anonymous]

What surface low? I see no rotation whatsoever on radar.

[CocoaBill]

they said weak surface reflection and at 300 miles - it may be too out of MLB radar range.

[Anonymous]

Oh 300 miles...yea too far.

[Us 2 cajuns]

So, "I'm not Ivan" - that's what the La mets are saying...but New Orleans expects heavy rain on Wed and Thurs from the system

[depotoo]

look at this loop - beginning frames show the hook
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... odnav=none

[Ivanova]

All that's needed now is an earthquake


*

[calidoug]

Oh look out! A rain shower! A gust of wind! Ahhhhhhhhh!

Please.

[Us 2 cajuns]

Rain in New Orleans may be more than a shower. It's not unheard of to get 10-20" of rain....and most of the time we do survive...as long as the pumps keeping running. I think that the majority of the people here are just burned from this past week. So many evacuated and sat in hours of traffic, but thank God we were spared the wrath of Ivan. Just don't think anyone in the Southeast wants to hear about anything tropical right now....no matter how small it may seem to others.

[Tertius]

Oh look out! A rain shower! A gust of wind! Ahhhhhhhhh!

Please.

What is interesting is that this strom we have all been watching for the last couple of weeks has bypassed the Florida peninsula once, looped around Cuba to the gulf coast, toured most of the United States east of the Mississippi, and then still come back to visit the peninsula.

I don't think anyone is shouting gloom and doom, just observing some very interesting weather. Perhaps we could be a little more pleasant to each other?

[opera ghost]

Gotta agree. The interest in this seems to be predominantly fascination with a weather occurance that just doesn't seem to want to die.... I've yet to see anyone say it would be a major hurricane... and since this is the first bit of the tropics that seems to have an eye on Texas it's kindof interesting to me at least.

Let's breathe and relax a bit. We're talking tropics- this has the possibility of at least turning into a depression and a lot of interest because of the history....

[Ivanova]

... and since this is the first bit of the tropics
that seems to have an eye on Texas
it's kindof interesting to me at least.

Remnants of Hurricane Javier in Texas...

JAVIER WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA..NEW MEXICO... AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

AT 8 PM PDT...21Z...THE REMNANT OF JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1
NORTH LATITUDE AND 109.3 WEST LONGITUDE...OR APPROXIMATELY 180
MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL PASO TEXAS. THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT APPROXAMATELY 25-30 MPH. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ARRPOXAMATELY 10-20 MPH. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1008 MB OR 29.77 INCHES OF MERCURY.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/NFDSCCEP3.shtml



*

[MysticOne]

Oh look out! A rain shower! A gust of wind! Ahhhhhhhhh!

Please.

What is interesting is that this strom we have all been watching for the last couple of weeks has bypassed the Florida peninsula once, looped around Cuba to the gulf coast, toured most of the United States east of the Mississippi, and then still come back to visit the peninsula.

I don't think anyone is shouting gloom and doom, just observing some very interesting weather. Perhaps we could be a little more pleasant to each other?

(((Well said Tertius! This is a tropical weather board and this is a truly fascinating storm to follow. This is not about gloom and doom, but the wonder of mother nature! )))

[SwampDawg]

True...it has been an interesting season. It's one that won't be forgotten for a long time to come.

[Sanibel]

Interestingly enough a dry, warm wind from the NE has started here. Just a non-gusting, straight, leaf-rustling constant wind. Starry sky above.

This dry NE flow associated with the dry air front caused a tornado today about 20 miles from here and another to the south over Collier County. It happened because this dry air capped the humid convection off the hot, wet Florida september deck. When diurnal heating broke through with thunder clouds the overhead flow became rotational...

[fci]

Our forecast discussion in Palm Beach County warns:
"At 00z vorticity maximum...associated with the remnants of Ivan...is moving
southwest at 23 knots off of the Florida NE coast near 29.5n 77.5w.
Extrapolating this motion...it will move ashore near Fort
Pierce-Vero Beach tomorrow morning around 12z and move into the Gulf
of Mexico between 18z and 00z.


Besides fast moving showers and possibly thunderstorms...enough
helicity is probably available to cause funnel clouds tomorrow
morning and early afternoon over the southern peninsula. "

It would be a freak of nature if the remnants of Ivan caused severe weather over South Florida.

Maybe the remnants feel bad for causing the evacuation of The Keys and wants to take one last swipe at us.....

[yankeelmbb]

for anyone who is interested...It's raining here is Melbourne, Fl right now