OMG!! jean and ivan may hit coast next week

[rainstorm]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 19, 2004 3:49 p.m.

1) Ivan. The remnants will cross Florida tomorrow and be in the gulf near 26 north and 85 west by Tuesday morning. 10-15 seas and Gales will hit the northeast coast of Florida beaches later tonight. The system will organize Tuesday could be a 50-60 kt tropical storm by Thursday. While we are assuming that it will be renamed Ivan if it develops, there is always the danger that the power that name have not been watching for this as we have, in which case it could be Matthew, since Lisa may get named in far eastern atlantic before that. Another problem is the possible collapsing of steering currents before landfall. Again, it appears its the Texas or Louisiana coast that sees this later in the week. 2) Jeanne: we are at odds with our good friends at TPC. First of all, Jeanne may still be on the charts and near the coast next weekend. I feel it will perform a loop by Wednesday and start back for the coast, and there is a chance, given the pattern that it could impact U.S. weather next weekend. I also dont see any reason why this storm will not develop to a cat 2 or perhaps greater hurricane. Actually I do see the reason, but its based on the United States model, which whips it out to sea in the first place. The bulk of non U.S generated models have the loop and it fits a nice analog, though further east in the end game, to Betsy in 1965. The call is a loop and a move back toward our coast in the Wednesday-Friday period with possible impact late next week. 3) Karl will recurve and not hit the states. 4. Lisa should develop over the next few days, but its too early for me to say whether it will suffer the same fate as Karl or come further west.

from accuweather.com

the public site discussion

[Stormsfury]

Um ... where the hell are the remnants of Ivan? somwhere in that cluster of dry air ... no dice, Ivan is DEAD ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[TS Zack]

I am guessing the low clouds off SC & GA on the visible loop.

[lilbump3000]

I was thinking the same thing Zack. I mean there must be something there they are seeing and we are not. Remember they have alot more stuff that can tell them more about whats going on out there than we do. Just have to wait and see.

[ColdFront77]

The Melbourne National Weather Service mentions it in their "Weather Synopsis. They actually have "Chance of showers after midnight. Chance of rain 20%" due to these remnants.

It is rare to have rain here in central Florida... even during the rainy season (last week of May to mid October) between Midnight and 8:00 AM.

[Stormsfury]

Basically a SFC trough, with very shallow layer of moisture to work with ...

Basically what could happen ...

1) the leftovers get eventually entrained into Jeanne's circulation
2) the leftovers get shunted westward with no available moisture to work with ...
3) the leftovers get shunted westward and somehow gets a little moisture tap from Jeanne ... but Jeanne's circulation has become rather large and if anything, that small leftover would follow scenario 1

[ColdFront77]

So, NWS Melbourne shouldn't be indicating "Ivan't remnants" affecting central Florida?

[Anonymous]

LOL...whre is Ivan?

Here's the Sunday afternoon weather discussion out of Tampa NWS, Ruskin

LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SUN)...FOR THE TIME BEING WILL DAMPEN OUT THE
FEATURE OUT IN THE GULF THAT APPEARS TO BE THE REMNANTS OF IVAN BUT
WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN FOR WED. OTHERWISE DEEP RIDGING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CWFA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION AFTER WED. WINDS REMAIN NE INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL DECREASE AS THE RIDGING MOVES OFF THE EAST U.S.
COAST...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AMD PROVIDE THE PROSPECTS
OF A NICE BOATING WEEKEND.

[MGC]

I'm with SF on this one. This will not happen......MGC

[ColdFront77]

Agreeing or disagreeing with SF isn't my intent. .. .. I enjoy hearing what SF has to say and really can't find reason to totally disagree with him.

At thes ame time, it is difficult to disagree with professional NWS meteorologists.

[Windy]

Heya... could you post a link to that accuweather discussion? I can't find it anywhere on their site.

[rainstorm]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin ... ccuweather

[Anonymous]

Hmmm--a lot of NWS's are mentioning this is well.... Sounds like more fun in FLa

[rainstorm]

they are so sure they have it named already

[Rainband]

No comment

[Windy]

Thanks, rainstorm!

[rainstorm]

no problem

[Stormsfury]

Actually based on looking in depth with the model guidance, they would realize that there's a small feature showing up on the guidance in the W Caribbean moving NW into the area MIGHT be a small development ... primarily the ECMWF clearly shows this on the 850mb wind streamlines ...

SF

[dominick izzo]

what are they so sure of that they already named it and whats gona happen in forida

[Yankeegirl]

I have also noticed that our rain chances in the Houston area are going to go up by mid week, although they didnt say why, so I guess its Ivans legacy?