10:30PM S2K Ensemble

[MWatkins]

Only 2 members tonight...I have left my forecast out of the dataset again as a control to see what impact if any a 2 member concensus may have.

I will be back in the dataset again tomorrow...depending on what happens with Jeanne I may ask that we switch to TD13...but we will see.

Again...FB/Storms and any one else who wants to try please join in. See the sticky for details.

Verification stats will be available sometime tomorrow (hopefully)...the 00Z forecast from last night is not too bad...error should be in the 40 nautical mile range which beats climatology and the last 10 year forecast error. NHC was a little closer with an error of 25 NM or so (just eyeballing the numbers could be off a tad...still a good forecast though).

S2K Ensemble Forecast from Last Night for 00Z 0920 (+24): 24.3N 72.6W
NHC Official Forecast from Last Night for 00Z 0920 (+24): 24.8N 72.5W
Actual Fix Position 00Z 0920: 24.8N 72.1W

Ensemble for 9/20/2004 00Z

Members (2)

SouthernWX
cswitwer

0 24.8N 72.5W 50 knots
12 26.2N 72.8W 50 knots
24 27.1N 72.8W 55 knots
36 27.7N 72.8W 58 knots
48 27.6N 72.6W 63 knots
72 27.8N 73.2W 70 knots
96 28.6N 74.6W 75 knots
120 29.9N 75.2W 78 knots

MW

[Stormsfury]

Code: Select all

 
 INITIAL     20/0300Z 25.2N  72.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 26.2N  71.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 27.2N  71.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 27.8N  70.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 27.6N  69.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 27.2N  68.7W    60 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 27.2N  69.3W    70 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 27.9N  70.3W    80 KT


[Matthew5]

Here is my model!
00z

Hours Lat/long winds
0+ 25.2/72.0 50 knots
6+ 25.9/71.8 55 knots
12+ 26.7/71.5 55 knots
24+ 27.9/70.7 60 knots
36+ 28.9/69.7 70 knots
48+ 29.2/68.7 80 knots
60+ 30.6/68.2 90 knots
72+ 32.9/67.5 90 knots


Matthew

[MWatkins]

Ok Stormsfury...thanks! You are plugged into the Matrix:

Revised Ensemble forecast for 092000Z

Memebers (3)

SouthernWX
cswitwer
Stormsfury

0 24.8N 72.5W 50 knots
+12 26.2N 72.4W 50 knots
+24 27.1N 72.3W 55 knots
+36 27.7N 72.0W 58 knots
+48 27.6N 71.6W 61 knots
+72 27.6N 71.7W 67 knots
+96 28.1N 72.8W 73 knots
+120 29.2N 73.5W 78 knots

MW

[Matthew5]

I think that the ridge of high pressure to the north will not be strong enough to push the tropical cyclone back to the west. I think Karl will help push Jeanne out to sea...Can you add my thinking in please...

[MWatkins]

Ok Stormsfury and Matthew5...thanks! You are both plugged into the Matrix:

Revised Ensemble forecast for 092000Z

Memebers (4)

SouthernWX
cswitwer
Stormsfury
Matthew5

0 24.8N 72.5W 50 knots
+12 26.1N 72.3W 51 knots
+24 27.0N 72.1W 55 knots
+36 27.8N 71.7W 59 knots
+48 27.9N 71.1W 64 knots
+72 28.0N 70.9W 70 knots
+96 28.7N 71.7W 78 knots
+120 30.2N 72.0W 80 knots

MW

[Matthew5]

Thank you! I will try to keep updated.