I heard on FOX last night that Ivan just may twirl around come back over Florida go out into the Gulf again and do it all over again. Ivan is making a High which is keeping Jeanne back but its that same high that just may let Ivan do this. The way they showed it on a map it was like watching a football game as they scribbled out what it cooud do, I mean go out into the Atlantic to a full circle and head downward then over
**************************
IVAN coming around again???
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now this is really weird!!!
wwwa.accuweather.com/adcb....asp?iws=5
Article on Accuweather - Have We Heard The Last of IVAN
What´s left of Ivan is seen as a cluster of cloudiness off the Southeast coast. Showers and thunderstorms will move across Florida late Sunday night and Monday accompanied by gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Once out into the Gulf of Mexico, this feature could very well begin to regenerate and once again acquire tropical characteristics as it heads off to the west. This feature will then head toward the general direction of Louisiana and Texas by Wednesday and Thursday.
hurricane.accuweather.com...c&partner=
Today´s Discussion
POSTED: September 19, 2004 6:00 p.m.
1) Ivan. The remnants of the storm will cross Florida from the east Monday and be in the Gulf near 26 north and 85 west by Tuesday morning. 10-15 foot seas and gales will hit the northeastern coast of Florida late Sunday night and Monday. The system will re-organize Tuesday could be a 50-60 kt tropical storm by Thursday. While we are assuming that it will be renamed Ivan if in fact it develops, there is always the possibility it will be given a new name, in this case Matthew, since the Tropical Depression in the eastern Atlantic will be named Lisa within the next 24-36 hours. Regardless of the name of the system, or it´s speed of movement, it appears the Texas or Louisiana coast might have to deal with it later in the week. 2) Jeanne. We are at odds with our good friends at TPC. First of all, Jeanne may still be on the charts and near the coast next weekend. I feel it will perform a loop by Wednesday and start back for the coast, and there is a chance, given the pattern that it could impact U.S. weather next weekend. I also do not see any reason why this storm will not develop to a category 2 or perhaps greater hurricane. Actually I do see the reason, but it is based on the United States model, which whips it out to sea in the first place. The bulk of non U.S generated models have the loop and it fits a nice analog, though further east in the end game, to Betsy in 1965. The call is a loop and a move back toward our coast in the Wednesday-Friday period with possible impact late next week. 3) Karl will recurve and not hit the states. 4) Lisa should develop over the next few days from Tropical Depression 13, but it is too early to say whether it will suffer the same fate as Karl or come farther west.
'Ivan Is Not Done Yet
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 192359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 19 SEP 2004
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Zbw.gif) AND SATELLITE IMAGERY (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html) THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 72.3W OR ABOUT 145
MILES/210 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS AT
19/2100 UTC. JEANNE IS MOVING NORTH 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE OVERALL
SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THERE WAS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
BETWEEN 1900-2100 UTC BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE SINCE
WARMED. CURRENTLY JEANNE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 68W-74W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
BAHAMAS WITH ONLY UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS REMAINING.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH BUT SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED
TO THE SOUTH COURTESY OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE KARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 44.0W MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED
TO 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT MAKING KARL THE FOURTH CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE THIS SEASON. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 944 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KARL IS
MAINTAINING AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH A DISTINCT
EYE AND INTENSE SURROUNDING CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS.
OUTER RAINBANDS REACH AS FAR NORTH AS 21N AND SOUTH TO 13N
BETWEEN 39W AND 47W. KARL IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID- LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS MAINTAINING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW SHEAR AND A 50 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO
THE NE IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NEWLY FORMED T.D. THIRTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 33.2W...OR
ABOUT 645 MILES...1035 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 19/2100 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. THIRTEEN IS A
FAIRLY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ONLY COVERING A SMALL AREA FROM
12.5N-15.5N BETWEEN 31W-35W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE KARL TO THE WEST IS IMPINGING
UPON THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SOME SHEAR. CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N15W EXTENDING WSW
ALONG 11N25W THEN BECOMING DISRUPTED BY T.D. THIRTEEN AND
HURRICANE KARL. AXIS BECOME REESTABLISHED ALONG 10N43W 9N50W
13N65W 10N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE SW
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 17W-31W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATE FALL PREVAILS OVER THE GLFMEX
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC OVER S
FLORIDA INTO THE SE GLFMEX. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WEAKENING OVER
THE GLFMEX ALONG 27N82W 23N85W 22N90W. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO A SMALL AREA
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY
OVER S FLORIDA. OVER THE W GLFMEX...A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ASSOCIATED STRONG NLY FLOW AROUND THE E
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PREVAILS W OF 90W WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF NOTE BEING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GLFMEX AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 23N. THE E GLFMEX TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FURTHER S ALLOWING DRY AIR TO CONTINUE FILTERING SWD OVER E
GLFMEX DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLC SHOULD MOVE SW OVER N
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TRAILS SWD FROM T.S. JEANNE OVER E CUBA
AND THE W CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST
NUMEROUS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY FOCUSED NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. FURTHER E...STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N80W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR E
OF 70W IS CAPPING SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. THE WEAK TROUGH
TRAILING FROM T.S. JEANNE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
WITH STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD IN ITS
WAKE.
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
W ATLC FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SWD IN BETWEEN THE SE UNITED
STATES AND BERMUDA. THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY AIR
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. THE S EXTENT OF THE TROUGH...S
OF 30N...APPEARS NEARLY STATIONARY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. JEANNE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. JEANNE IS SITUATED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS NEWD TO BEYOND BERMUDA.
MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE TRAILS SWD OVER THE S
BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. FURTHER E...AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERS AREA ALONG 30N56W SWD TO 20N63W. MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS STREAMING
EWD INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 61W-65W. A SECOND
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED FROM 25N-31N
BETWEEN 50W-56W. THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS AREA OVER THE FAR
E ATLC IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDING SW
ALONG 25N40W THEN WEAKENING W OF HURRICANE KARL. ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS
ASSISTING OUTFLOW FROM KARL. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 32N45W TO 30N70W. COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE W ATLC
FROM 32N72W TO THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR 27N80W.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ASIDE FROM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KARL AND THE NEWLY
FORMED T.D. THIRTEEN...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA
WITHIN THE ITCZ E OF 30W. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH
TYPICALLY EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE AREA IS DISRUPTED BY KARL AND
T.D. THIRTEEN. A WEAK RIDGE LIES JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 13N/14N WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIES W OF KARL
FROM TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TO 20N50W.
**********************
If Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl develop a mutual center of rotation, dancing around each other, my guess is that all bets would be off.
Bear in mind that Karl is a cat 4 at the moment ....
All y'all living in Florida really, really, really need to pay close attention to what is developing here .... I do not trust the NHC at the moment and neither should you
AXNT20 KNHC 192359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 19 SEP 2004
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Zbw.gif) AND SATELLITE IMAGERY (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html) THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 72.3W OR ABOUT 145
MILES/210 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS AT
19/2100 UTC. JEANNE IS MOVING NORTH 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE OVERALL
SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THERE WAS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
BETWEEN 1900-2100 UTC BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE SINCE
WARMED. CURRENTLY JEANNE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 68W-74W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
BAHAMAS WITH ONLY UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS REMAINING.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH BUT SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED
TO THE SOUTH COURTESY OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS.
HURRICANE KARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 44.0W MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED
TO 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT MAKING KARL THE FOURTH CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE THIS SEASON. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 944 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KARL IS
MAINTAINING AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH A DISTINCT
EYE AND INTENSE SURROUNDING CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS.
OUTER RAINBANDS REACH AS FAR NORTH AS 21N AND SOUTH TO 13N
BETWEEN 39W AND 47W. KARL IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID- LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS MAINTAINING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW SHEAR AND A 50 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO
THE NE IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NEWLY FORMED T.D. THIRTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 33.2W...OR
ABOUT 645 MILES...1035 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 19/2100 UTC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. THIRTEEN IS A
FAIRLY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ONLY COVERING A SMALL AREA FROM
12.5N-15.5N BETWEEN 31W-35W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE KARL TO THE WEST IS IMPINGING
UPON THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SOME SHEAR. CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N15W EXTENDING WSW
ALONG 11N25W THEN BECOMING DISRUPTED BY T.D. THIRTEEN AND
HURRICANE KARL. AXIS BECOME REESTABLISHED ALONG 10N43W 9N50W
13N65W 10N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE SW
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 17W-31W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATE FALL PREVAILS OVER THE GLFMEX
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC OVER S
FLORIDA INTO THE SE GLFMEX. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT PULLS
UP STATIONARY OVER FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WEAKENING OVER
THE GLFMEX ALONG 27N82W 23N85W 22N90W. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO A SMALL AREA
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY
OVER S FLORIDA. OVER THE W GLFMEX...A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVER INTERIOR MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ASSOCIATED STRONG NLY FLOW AROUND THE E
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PREVAILS W OF 90W WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF NOTE BEING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GLFMEX AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 23N. THE E GLFMEX TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FURTHER S ALLOWING DRY AIR TO CONTINUE FILTERING SWD OVER E
GLFMEX DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLC SHOULD MOVE SW OVER N
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TRAILS SWD FROM T.S. JEANNE OVER E CUBA
AND THE W CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST
NUMEROUS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY FOCUSED NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. FURTHER E...STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N80W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR E
OF 70W IS CAPPING SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. THE WEAK TROUGH
TRAILING FROM T.S. JEANNE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
WITH STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD IN ITS
WAKE.
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
W ATLC FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SWD IN BETWEEN THE SE UNITED
STATES AND BERMUDA. THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY AIR
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. THE S EXTENT OF THE TROUGH...S
OF 30N...APPEARS NEARLY STATIONARY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. JEANNE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. JEANNE IS SITUATED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS NEWD TO BEYOND BERMUDA.
MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE TRAILS SWD OVER THE S
BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. FURTHER E...AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERS AREA ALONG 30N56W SWD TO 20N63W. MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS STREAMING
EWD INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 61W-65W. A SECOND
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED FROM 25N-31N
BETWEEN 50W-56W. THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH ENTERS AREA OVER THE FAR
E ATLC IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDING SW
ALONG 25N40W THEN WEAKENING W OF HURRICANE KARL. ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS
ASSISTING OUTFLOW FROM KARL. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 32N45W TO 30N70W. COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE W ATLC
FROM 32N72W TO THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR 27N80W.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ASIDE FROM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KARL AND THE NEWLY
FORMED T.D. THIRTEEN...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA
WITHIN THE ITCZ E OF 30W. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH
TYPICALLY EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE AREA IS DISRUPTED BY KARL AND
T.D. THIRTEEN. A WEAK RIDGE LIES JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 13N/14N WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIES W OF KARL
FROM TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TO 20N50W.
**********************
If Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl develop a mutual center of rotation, dancing around each other, my guess is that all bets would be off.
Bear in mind that Karl is a cat 4 at the moment ....
All y'all living in Florida really, really, really need to pay close attention to what is developing here .... I do not trust the NHC at the moment and neither should you
0 likes
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DoctorHurricane2003
I do not trust the NHC at the moment and neither should you
If it is one thing you should never offer as advice on these boards...it is that. For your information...the National Hurricane Center is the RSMC (Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre) for the Atlantic Basin as designated by the WMO. Not Accuweather. In fact, time and time again, NHC has been MUCH MUCH more accurate than Accuweather, which overhypes systems. Yes, once and a while they get lucky, but for the most part the NHC does a fair job.
I do not want to hear one more person on these boards say that again. The NHC is the place to go for accurate, up-to-date information and area warnings. Believing otherwise could lead to false information causing unnecessary panic or falsely believing a system will go elsewhere when it is heading straight for you...a very dangerous thing.
0 likes
Please pay attention if in potential cone.... always we should heed the advice of the NHC -- they are the experts and have access to more information than we do. Please do not ignore their information and advice!
Hannah wrote:All y'all living in Florida really, really, really need to pay close attention to what is developing here .... I do not trust the NHC at the moment and neither should you
Unlike AccuBlunder, NHC actually knows that Pensacola is in Florida, not Alabama. You should take that into consideration.
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Ivanova
Ivanova wrote:[As for the NHC... aren't they part of the US government ??
I would think they would have all the latest equipment and
expertise to predict accurately... but lately they do seem to
be slipping
Slipping? They continue to improve. And they're clearly obviously better than AccuBlunder.
0 likes
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ColdFront77
-
TLHR
-
KeyLargoDave
- Category 1
- Posts: 423
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:03 pm
- Location: 25 05' 80 26'
- Contact:
Hannah wrote:
All y'all living in Florida really, really, really need to pay close attention to what is developing here .... I do not trust the NHC at the moment and neither should you
This is really strange -- someone who joined last weeks and has two posts telling people to ignore and not trust the NHC? OUTRAGEOUS.
Are you trolling? This is the kind of statement that is dangerous and really pisses off the people who are here for serious discussion. Please keep in mind that there are people here with NO specific weather knowledge, and the LAST thing they should be told is to doubt or ignore the NHC. The experts here know how to weigh and interpret NHC forecasts and advice; they are the only ones that can create independent forecasts.
IMO, your post is irresponsible. A moderator might want to comment.
0 likes
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Ivanova
The NHC is the place to go for accurate, up-to-date information and area warnings. Believing otherwise could lead to false information causing unnecessary panic or falsely believing a system will go elsewhere when it is heading straight for you...a very dangerous thing.
100000% in total agreement. Could not have written it any better than that.
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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wxwatcher2
- Category 1
- Posts: 282
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:51 pm
- Location: Central Florida
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amawea
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 385
- Age: 73
- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 3:36 pm
- Location: Horseshoe Bend, Ar. but from Baytown, Tx
Dercho Said
Derecho,
You know that was just a graphics error and only slightly off at that. I'm sure everyone is aware of that especially those that live in Pensacola. Joe B. was the first to start talking about the ghost of Ivan. Then when the models started leaning that way the NHC jumped on the band wagon. Now I agree that the NHC should be what one listens to when it comes to watches and warnings but I do not believe accuweather deserves the bad rap it's getting in this thread. They are professional meteorologist also, and do a pretty good job. If you read their forecast when it is dealing with a hurricane they put a disclaimer saying you should listen to your official nws forecast, as they could be liable to a law suit if they didn't. I've read Joe Bastardi's article where he talks about this. Accuweather trys to give different perspectives of what could happen days away based on models and their old fashion forecasting methods using analog years and where the highs and lows are. I believe the models are too heavily relied on sometimes. My God, they were all over the place at times with Ivan and Jeanne.
Amawea
Unlike AccuBlunder, NHC actually knows that Pensacola is in Florida, not Alabama. You should take that into consideration
Derecho,
You know that was just a graphics error and only slightly off at that. I'm sure everyone is aware of that especially those that live in Pensacola. Joe B. was the first to start talking about the ghost of Ivan. Then when the models started leaning that way the NHC jumped on the band wagon. Now I agree that the NHC should be what one listens to when it comes to watches and warnings but I do not believe accuweather deserves the bad rap it's getting in this thread. They are professional meteorologist also, and do a pretty good job. If you read their forecast when it is dealing with a hurricane they put a disclaimer saying you should listen to your official nws forecast, as they could be liable to a law suit if they didn't. I've read Joe Bastardi's article where he talks about this. Accuweather trys to give different perspectives of what could happen days away based on models and their old fashion forecasting methods using analog years and where the highs and lows are. I believe the models are too heavily relied on sometimes. My God, they were all over the place at times with Ivan and Jeanne.
Amawea
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