5 AM KARL -- 125 MPH, WNW 9, 950 MB

[yoda]

5 DAY --
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

FISHIE!!!



Hurricane Karl Advisory Number 15


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 20, 2004



...Karl weakens slightly as it moves west-northwestward...
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Karl was located near
latitude 17.3 north... longitude 45.5 west or about 1055
miles...1700 km... east of the Lesser Antilles.

Karl is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A
turn to the northwest is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Karl is now a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale...but could restrengthen to a category four hurricane during
the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...17.3 N... 45.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am AST.

Forecaster Franklin

[yoda]

Hurricane Karl Discussion Number 15


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 20, 2004



as it did last night about this time...the satellite presentation of
Karl has deteriorated a bit...with the eye becoming less distinct
and a spreading out of the coldest core cloud tops. This is
consistent with microwave imagery from near 0z that suggested
another eyewall replacement cycle was occurring. The initial
intensity is lowered slightly to 110 kt...but Karl will have ample
opportunity to restrengthen over the next 24-36 hours while it is
over warm water and under light shear. After that...westerly shear
from an approaching upper-level extratropical trough will be
encountered first...followed by colder SSTs near the end of the
forecast period as a still potent Karl merges with the
extratropical system.

There has been no significant change to the track forecast
philosophy. Karl is expected to soon begin to make a right turn
ahead of the approaching trough. The official forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with the GFS.
The forecast track shows a bit of a Bend to the left to reflect
more of an interaction with the trough.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/0900z 17.3n 45.5w 110 kt
12hr VT 20/1800z 17.9n 46.8w 110 kt
24hr VT 21/0600z 19.3n 48.4w 120 kt
36hr VT 21/1800z 21.1n 49.6w 125 kt
48hr VT 22/0600z 23.5n 50.0w 125 kt
72hr VT 23/0600z 29.5n 48.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 24/0600z 38.0n 44.0w 95 kt
120hr VT 25/0600z 49.0n 43.0w 65 kt...extratropical