5 DAY --
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html
Tropical Storm Jeanne Advisory Number 27
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 20, 2004
...Jeanne moving slowly northward to the east of the Bahamas...
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Jeanne was
located near latitude 26.0 north... longitude 71.9 west or about
325 miles... 520 km... east of great abaco island.
Jeanne is moving toward the north near 8 mph ...13 km/hr...and a
turn to the northeast is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.
An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft reported a
minimum central pressure of 992 mb...29.29 inches.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...26.0 N... 71.9 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 992 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
5 AM JEANNE -- 60 MPH, N 8, 992 MB, Hurricane on Wed...
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yoda
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Tropical Storm Jeanne Discussion Number 27
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 20, 2004
Jeanne has not changed significantly in organization over the past
several hours. Peak flight-level winds from the Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft are about the same as on the last recon
mission...although the central pressure is down a couple of
millibars. Current intensity is held at 50 kt. The hurricane
hunters fixed the center of the storm near the southern portion of
the convective overcast...and satellite analysts from TAFB...SAB...
and AFWA located the center slightly farther north. On satellite
images...the cloud pattern is becoming a little elongated from
southwest to northeast. This is indicative of some southwesterly
shear over the system...and analyses from the University of
Wisconsin CIMSS indicate a little over 15 kt of vertical shear in
the area. Some strengthening is forecast as per the previous
advisories and the latest SHIPS guidance. A further increase in
shear and drier air is likely to halt the intensification process
in a couple of days. However...if the shear increases
significantly and sooner than expected...Jeanne might not regain
hurricane status after all.
The estimated initial motion continues to be a little east of
north...010/7. The storm is currently being steered by the flow
between a weak mid-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to its
east. There is a much larger and stronger trough to the
north-northeast of Jeanne...and the GFS model predicts that the
tropical cyclone will be entrained into the flow on the south side
of this bigger trough...and move well east into the open Atlantic
by the end of the forecast period. The GFDL...U.K. Met...and
NOGAPS models do not agree with that scenario...and show the large
trough leaving Jeanne behind. Those models depict various versions
of a loop back to the west...with the tropical cyclone feeling the
influence of a strong mid-tropospheric high over the eastern United
States. As has been the case for some time now...there is
considerable uncertainty in the forecast track for Jeanne in the
2-5 day time frame. This official track forecast is a compromise of
the various model solutions...and simply holds the system stationary
after day 3.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/0900z 26.0n 71.9w 50 kt
12hr VT 20/1800z 26.7n 71.4w 55 kt
24hr VT 21/0600z 27.3n 70.5w 60 kt
36hr VT 21/1800z 27.3n 69.5w 65 kt
48hr VT 22/0600z 27.0n 68.7w 70 kt
72hr VT 23/0600z 26.5n 68.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 24/0600z 26.5n 67.5w 65 kt
120hr VT 25/0600z 26.5n 67.5w 60 kt
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 20, 2004
Jeanne has not changed significantly in organization over the past
several hours. Peak flight-level winds from the Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft are about the same as on the last recon
mission...although the central pressure is down a couple of
millibars. Current intensity is held at 50 kt. The hurricane
hunters fixed the center of the storm near the southern portion of
the convective overcast...and satellite analysts from TAFB...SAB...
and AFWA located the center slightly farther north. On satellite
images...the cloud pattern is becoming a little elongated from
southwest to northeast. This is indicative of some southwesterly
shear over the system...and analyses from the University of
Wisconsin CIMSS indicate a little over 15 kt of vertical shear in
the area. Some strengthening is forecast as per the previous
advisories and the latest SHIPS guidance. A further increase in
shear and drier air is likely to halt the intensification process
in a couple of days. However...if the shear increases
significantly and sooner than expected...Jeanne might not regain
hurricane status after all.
The estimated initial motion continues to be a little east of
north...010/7. The storm is currently being steered by the flow
between a weak mid-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to its
east. There is a much larger and stronger trough to the
north-northeast of Jeanne...and the GFS model predicts that the
tropical cyclone will be entrained into the flow on the south side
of this bigger trough...and move well east into the open Atlantic
by the end of the forecast period. The GFDL...U.K. Met...and
NOGAPS models do not agree with that scenario...and show the large
trough leaving Jeanne behind. Those models depict various versions
of a loop back to the west...with the tropical cyclone feeling the
influence of a strong mid-tropospheric high over the eastern United
States. As has been the case for some time now...there is
considerable uncertainty in the forecast track for Jeanne in the
2-5 day time frame. This official track forecast is a compromise of
the various model solutions...and simply holds the system stationary
after day 3.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/0900z 26.0n 71.9w 50 kt
12hr VT 20/1800z 26.7n 71.4w 55 kt
24hr VT 21/0600z 27.3n 70.5w 60 kt
36hr VT 21/1800z 27.3n 69.5w 65 kt
48hr VT 22/0600z 27.0n 68.7w 70 kt
72hr VT 23/0600z 26.5n 68.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 24/0600z 26.5n 67.5w 65 kt
120hr VT 25/0600z 26.5n 67.5w 60 kt
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wxwatcher2
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clueless newbie
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 137
- Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:11 pm
Hey, why has everybody lost interest in Jeanne?
The way she is firing convection, she may become hurricane again late today. Amazingly persistent girl. While she might look fishy, nothing is set in stone yet.
Karl seems to be in process of getting a 40nm eye, then he will be ready to bomb. Might be one of those beautifull cat4/borderline cat5 storms that do not bother anybody. So far, he has been struggling with the dry air to the west and has never been really beautiful.
Lisa, surprisingly, survived in the shadow/outflow of Karl, and even strenghtened. She is maintaining her convection above the LLC, but is racing closer and closer to Karl. She might be torn away by Karl or thrown north by Fujiwara effect. However, if she misses Karl, she would likedly be a thread to the islands.
Unbelievable, but Ivan's remnants are still there, even some circulation is visible in the Gulf stream east of Florida. We will see, likely the much needed reain for Louisiana is coming, hopefully not much wind attached.
Invest 93 does not show much organization, but it has plenty of time to develop.
There is another wave just leaving Africa. It is really south (4-7N). I think this is the last wave of this year's Cape Verde season with any chances of developing. the ITCZ moved wayy to much to the south in the last week or so.
Just clueless rambling...
Still, I am amazed by Jeanne's persistency.
The way she is firing convection, she may become hurricane again late today. Amazingly persistent girl. While she might look fishy, nothing is set in stone yet.
Karl seems to be in process of getting a 40nm eye, then he will be ready to bomb. Might be one of those beautifull cat4/borderline cat5 storms that do not bother anybody. So far, he has been struggling with the dry air to the west and has never been really beautiful.
Lisa, surprisingly, survived in the shadow/outflow of Karl, and even strenghtened. She is maintaining her convection above the LLC, but is racing closer and closer to Karl. She might be torn away by Karl or thrown north by Fujiwara effect. However, if she misses Karl, she would likedly be a thread to the islands.
Unbelievable, but Ivan's remnants are still there, even some circulation is visible in the Gulf stream east of Florida. We will see, likely the much needed reain for Louisiana is coming, hopefully not much wind attached.
Invest 93 does not show much organization, but it has plenty of time to develop.
There is another wave just leaving Africa. It is really south (4-7N). I think this is the last wave of this year's Cape Verde season with any chances of developing. the ITCZ moved wayy to much to the south in the last week or so.
Just clueless rambling...
Still, I am amazed by Jeanne's persistency.
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