12:00 Models for Lisa and 93L

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cycloneye
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12:00 Models for Lisa and 93L

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:11 am

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL STORM LISA       (AL132004) ON 20040920  1200 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040920  1200   040921  0000   040921  1200   040922  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.5N  35.4W   14.0N  37.6W   14.7N  39.8W   15.8N  41.9W
  BAMM    13.5N  35.4W   14.2N  37.8W   15.4N  40.1W   17.3N  42.0W
  A98E    13.5N  35.4W   13.8N  37.6W   14.4N  40.0W   15.7N  42.6W
  LBAR    13.5N  35.4W   14.0N  37.3W   14.7N  39.4W   15.5N  41.8W
  SHIP        45KTS          55KTS          62KTS          67KTS
  DSHP        45KTS          55KTS          62KTS          67KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040922  1200   040923  1200   040924  1200   040925  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.0N  43.6W   18.3N  46.4W   17.6N  49.1W   17.2N  50.7W
  BAMM    19.7N  43.0W   23.5N  41.9W   23.4N  39.5W   24.9N  36.8W
  A98E    16.6N  45.2W   19.6N  48.7W   21.8N  50.8W   27.1N  47.1W
  LBAR    16.8N  44.1W   20.6N  47.5W   23.7N  47.6W   31.0N  40.3W
  SHIP        71KTS          75KTS          72KTS          71KTS
  DSHP        71KTS          75KTS          72KTS          71KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  35.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
  LATM12 =  13.3N LONM12 =  33.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
  LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  31.5W
  WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   40NM RD34SE =   40NM RD34SW =   40NM RD34NW =  40NM



739
WHXX01 KWBC 201256
CHGHUR

     

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL932004) ON 20040920  1200 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040920  1200   040921  0000   040921  1200   040922  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD     7.9N  27.0W    8.4N  29.8W    8.7N  32.8W    8.8N  35.9W
  BAMM     7.9N  27.0W    8.7N  29.6W    9.3N  32.5W    9.7N  35.4W
  A98E     7.9N  27.0W    8.1N  29.2W    8.3N  31.7W    8.7N  34.3W
  LBAR     7.9N  27.0W    8.4N  29.3W    9.1N  32.0W   10.0N  35.2W
  SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          42KTS          50KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          42KTS          50KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040922  1200   040923  1200   040924  1200   040925  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD     8.9N  39.1W    8.7N  44.5W    7.9N  48.5W    8.4N  51.7W
  BAMM    10.3N  38.3W   10.9N  42.8W   11.5N  45.7W   13.9N  46.2W
  A98E     9.2N  37.0W   10.1N  42.0W   10.6N  46.7W   11.2N  50.6W
  LBAR    11.1N  38.6W   13.4N  45.1W   13.4N  49.8W   10.1N  51.6W
  SHIP        58KTS          67KTS          69KTS          67KTS
  DSHP        58KTS          67KTS          69KTS          67KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =   7.9N LONCUR =  27.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
  LATM12 =   7.6N LONM12 =  25.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
  LATM24 =   7.5N LONM24 =  23.0W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

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#2 Postby Windy » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:31 am

Looks like a landshark to me. :(
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#3 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:37 am

I really am not worried about Lisa since it's so tiny that the chances of it impacting a specific location are really low. Plus, since it's so tiny, it will be easily steered north by any weakness that passes through.

I'm more worried about the one behind Lisa. Chances are this one will head much further west than Lisa or Karl, which makes you raise eyebrows and take notice.

Cape Verde season landfalling storms are not over YET...
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#4 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:45 am

Since it says Tropical Depression Invest.. does that make it #14.. or does it have to become a "no name" 1st
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#5 Postby jpigott » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:47 am

has 93L (the thing behind Lisa) been classified a TD yet. If not, anybody got a guess as to when it may be
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#6 Postby mascpa » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:52 am

(I do much better looking at lines on a map) but the majority of the models seem to indicate at this time that little Lisa will be a fish storm. Can't say the same for the new area of interest behind her. Thoughts?
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#7 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:53 am

I'm not sold on Lisa tracking quite as far north as the NHC forcast has her at this point. I'm thinking she'll be a norther leeward islands threat. No idea yet whether she can threaten CONUS, but probably not.

The one behind her gets into the Carribean, IMHO.
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