Jeanne forecast #7.. Us threat still possible

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
MON SEPT 20TH 2004

Tropical Storm Jeanne is continuing to make her slow comeback from the dead this morning as she swirls out in the open ATL not bothering anybody. The question of course is.. will it remain that way..?

Jeanne is currently meandering North and may even meander towards the East in the next few days.. But as the high pressure system builds in and stays strong.. there is a slight chance she could move back more westward. Local mets have advised us here not to ride off Jeanne because she most likely will not be kicked back out to sea.. At least not initially.

Jeanne is developing in strength and is a moderate tropical storm with winds of 60 mph. She is forecast to become a hurricane for the 2nd time in the next couple days.

The forecast track doesn't have any strange loops in it yet.. but the SE is advised to continue to watch where she may meander next.

Here is the current 5 day outlook on Jeanne
Today: Strengthening a bit more. Still North move. Max winds: 70 mph
Tuesday: Back to a hurricane.. May start an East jog. Max Winds: 75 mph
Wednesday: Meandering in the open ATL.. Max Winds: 85 mph
Thursday: Possibly starting a loop and headed west again.. Max Winds: 90 mph
Friday: Uncertain about movement for now. Max Winds: 90 mph

Track and intensity forecasts are subject to several 100 mile errors.

DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and may not be used for making critical decisions, especially life or death decisions. For more details, listen to local media outlets or the NHC.As always.. comments welcomed..

[Josephine96]

I guess people like to just read my forecasts now instead of giving me comments lol

[Weatherboy1]

My take on Jeanne is simple ... the trough that was tugging at her and trying to steer her ENE is getting shunted well offshore by the big Canadian high. The area of weakness for Jeanne (which was north of her) is now sliding well to her NE and should soon be replaced by steering flow out of the N and NE on the eastern side of that high. Indeed, the latest CIMSS maps show how Jeanne's northward progress should easily be blocked ... and how a turn back to the W or even WSW is entirely possible.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8dlm2-1.html

I don't see how this thing will do anything but come W, at least for a couple of days. Whether she'll make it all the way to the coast of FL or anywhere else in the SE US remains to be seen. But I just don't buy the GFS out to sea forecast.

[Josephine96]

I also think it'll start moving west again soon.. Besides.. doing forecasts for fish actually annoys me in some regard lol

[sponger]

Thanks Jo, we will be watching. I never seen so many ground swells pointed at Florida. We have NE wind swell from good ole Ivan Remnants, SE Swell from Jeanne, and finally long period se swell from Karl should start filling in by the end of the week. Wow! Now if we can just get an offshore wind before all 3 swells fade, we will be in business!

Waxing up in N Fl!!!

[mascpa]

Jeanne will eventually be forced back west. I'll continue to keep an eye on her ... especially since I put my hurricane shutters away this past Saturday.

[wxwatcher2]

It's fun to write our forecasts.

I just don't see a Florida threat from Jeanne.

She's a mear gentle breeze for the fishes.

Relax and enjoy the great outdoors.

[sponger]

One thing I dont understand is if remnants of Ivan will move west, why wouldn't Jeanne follow? Why wouldnt the high pressure steer her west? The satillite (visable seems to clearly show the high ridge well east of current center. Any thoughts?

[Guest]

Sponger... Jeanne should @ the very least threaten Fla if not make landfall in Fla or somewhere in the SE next week.Don't let some people's not well thought out statements made out of denial mislead you..There is a large strong high that will trap Jeanne & eventually send her back westward (see below) & then we'll have to wait & see how far back it goes & what state gets affected.

[sponger]

Thanks Canetracker. Looking at that high, I would agree. Seems to be as you said more of a question of where west not if west!

[BayouVenteux]

One thing I dont understand is if remnants of Ivan will move west, why wouldn't Jeanne follow? Why wouldnt the high pressure steer her west? The satillite (visable seems to clearly show the high ridge well east of current center. Any thoughts?

IMHO, I would not be at all suprised to see some future model runs begin to show a more accelerated run to the west (Fla/SE coast?) as they begin to get a better handle on the pressure synoptics. The answers to the questions of the ridge/trough future strengths and positions will ultimately determine Jeanne's course.

Don't you love a mystery?

[hurricane1020]

by the looks of the high i would think it is going west soon i just hope it does something instead of just hanging out there

[Josephine96]

So a lot of you think it'll head back west and possibly move west enough to threaten Fla..

I'll publish more updates on the storms tomorrow

[hurrmia]

the tv weather have jeanne less to florida more to open sea.

[lilbump3000]

Well o course thats what the t.v. is going to have because thats what the NHC has.

[Stormsfury]

Jeanne won't be going anywhere fast ...

[hurrmia]

at 11:00pm their stall saying going to by out to sea hurricane((miami fl tv station))

[Anonymous]

I think this has the potential to be like Kyle--though a cane and not a tropical storm... No one thought as Kyle as it formed east of Bermuda and was looping and dancing well out in the Atlantic that it would ever make it to the US but it eventually did... Kyle track... http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200212.asp
Accuweather seem to still think Jeanne has a chance of making it back to the coast...
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin ... .asp?iws=2

Jeanne will drift erratically off the Southeast coast this week due to weak winds high in the atmosphere. When these winds are weak, there is no force to steer a tropical system. This will cause Jeanne to meander slowly all week, possibly even moving in a loop. Eventually, a ridge of high pressure is expected to give Jeanne a push toward the west at the end of this week. All interests along the Southeast coast need to monitor this system closely during the week.

[Sanibel]

From the looks of that overbearing High Jeanne should have already been shunted west. The reason she hasn't been is because she is ingrained as part of the trough you see her in. In this case she IS the weakness that is steering her under the High.

I assume a cyclone forming within that trough will eventually separate from it and become vulnerable to ridge effects? It all depends on how the High asserts itself and how much Jeanne separates from the weather feature she is currently ingrained in...

[snowflake]

I heard that the chances of Jeanne affecting the United States is slim. One of the local mets who is also the states climatalogist talked about that when he gave the weather at 5 and 6 pm.