5 PM LISA -- 65 MPH, W 11, 994 MB
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yoda
- Category 5
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Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 6
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 20, 2004
...Lisa continues to strengthen over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean...
at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located
near latitude 13.8 north...longitude 36.8 west or about 870
miles...1395 km...west of the Cape Verde Islands.
Lisa is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr... and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Lisa could become a hurricane by Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles
... 85 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...13.8 N... 36.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 20, 2004
...Lisa continues to strengthen over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean...
at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located
near latitude 13.8 north...longitude 36.8 west or about 870
miles...1395 km...west of the Cape Verde Islands.
Lisa is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr... and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Lisa could become a hurricane by Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles
... 85 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...13.8 N... 36.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
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Brent
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Charleycat4 wrote:The way it looks Lisa could sneak under the ridge and make it all the way across. Plus the wave behind it will go more south. Looks like the 7-10 time frame will be hell for the East coast and Florida. What a season!!!!
Probably more than 10 days... it's a lot slower mover than Ivan. Still east of 55 W on Saturday.
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#neversummer
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Brent wrote:Charleycat4 wrote:The way it looks Lisa could sneak under the ridge and make it all the way across. Plus the wave behind it will go more south. Looks like the 7-10 time frame will be hell for the East coast and Florida. What a season!!!!
Probably more than 10 days... it's a lot slower mover than Ivan. Still east of 55 W on Saturday.
Jeane, Ivan again, Lisa, and Matthew could all be US threats. Imagine another major hitting again and its possible one out of those 4 will be a hurricane at landfall. If not Lisa, soon to be matthew behind her has a shot at making it all the way.
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yoda
- Category 5
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- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
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Charleycat4 wrote:Brent wrote:Charleycat4 wrote:The way it looks Lisa could sneak under the ridge and make it all the way across. Plus the wave behind it will go more south. Looks like the 7-10 time frame will be hell for the East coast and Florida. What a season!!!!
Probably more than 10 days... it's a lot slower mover than Ivan. Still east of 55 W on Saturday.
Jeane, Ivan again, Lisa, and Matthew could all be US threats. Imagine another major hitting again and its possible one out of those 4 will be a hurricane at landfall. If not Lisa, soon to be matthew behind her has a shot at making it all the way.
Ok. The "name" is gone. If the remnants of Ivan form, then it would be Matthew or Nicole.
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yoda
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 6
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2004
although banding features have continued to improve...Lisa still
remains a small tropical cyclone. The banding eye feature observed
earlier today has dissapeared under a strong burst of deep
convection over the center. The increased convective structure...
the increase in the central deep convection...and a 20/1547z aqua1
overpass showing a mid- and low-level eye feature are my reasons
for remaining higher than the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
of 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB...and 35 kt from AFWA.
The initial motion estimate is 280/10. There remains no
significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning.
Lisa is expected to continue moving in a west to west-northwestward
direction throughout the forecast period as the small cyclone moves
around the periphery of a narrow subtropical ridge located between
Lisa and Karl. The ridge is forecast by most of the models to
remain intact...despite the poor initialization of the cyclone by
all of the models except for NOGAPS. However...the NOGAPS model
appears to overdevelopment of the cyclone...which allows it to
erode the narrow ridge and move northwestward through it. On the
other hand...the GFDL...GFDN...and deep BAM models move Lisa
westward for about 72 hours and then southwestward as a ridge
develops to the northwest. Until the models come into more
reasonable agreement...the official forecast remains close to the
previous forecast tracks and follows the synoptic pattern of enough
ridging keeping the very small tropical cyclone moving westward...
with a gradual decrease in forward speed as the ridge weakens some.
Compact tropical cyclones like can strengthen fairly quickly...but
can also weaken just as fast. The vertical shear is forecast to
remain around 10 kt or less for the next 12 to 18 hours...which may
allow Lisa to strengthen into a hurricane later tonight or Tuesday.
Afterwards 36 hours...low to moderate northeast to easterly
vertical shear is expected to inhibit the intensification
intensification process...but not as much as if it was westerly
shear. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
intensity forecast...which is consistent with the SHIPS model...but
much higher than the GFDL model.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/2100z 13.8n 36.8w 55 kt
12hr VT 21/0600z 14.1n 38.2w 65 kt
24hr VT 21/1800z 14.6n 39.9w 70 kt
36hr VT 22/0600z 15.2n 41.6w 75 kt
48hr VT 22/1800z 15.9n 43.2w 75 kt
72hr VT 23/1800z 16.7n 46.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 24/1800z 17.0n 49.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 25/1800z 17.0n 52.0w 75 kt
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2004
although banding features have continued to improve...Lisa still
remains a small tropical cyclone. The banding eye feature observed
earlier today has dissapeared under a strong burst of deep
convection over the center. The increased convective structure...
the increase in the central deep convection...and a 20/1547z aqua1
overpass showing a mid- and low-level eye feature are my reasons
for remaining higher than the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
of 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB...and 35 kt from AFWA.
The initial motion estimate is 280/10. There remains no
significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning.
Lisa is expected to continue moving in a west to west-northwestward
direction throughout the forecast period as the small cyclone moves
around the periphery of a narrow subtropical ridge located between
Lisa and Karl. The ridge is forecast by most of the models to
remain intact...despite the poor initialization of the cyclone by
all of the models except for NOGAPS. However...the NOGAPS model
appears to overdevelopment of the cyclone...which allows it to
erode the narrow ridge and move northwestward through it. On the
other hand...the GFDL...GFDN...and deep BAM models move Lisa
westward for about 72 hours and then southwestward as a ridge
develops to the northwest. Until the models come into more
reasonable agreement...the official forecast remains close to the
previous forecast tracks and follows the synoptic pattern of enough
ridging keeping the very small tropical cyclone moving westward...
with a gradual decrease in forward speed as the ridge weakens some.
Compact tropical cyclones like can strengthen fairly quickly...but
can also weaken just as fast. The vertical shear is forecast to
remain around 10 kt or less for the next 12 to 18 hours...which may
allow Lisa to strengthen into a hurricane later tonight or Tuesday.
Afterwards 36 hours...low to moderate northeast to easterly
vertical shear is expected to inhibit the intensification
intensification process...but not as much as if it was westerly
shear. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
intensity forecast...which is consistent with the SHIPS model...but
much higher than the GFDL model.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/2100z 13.8n 36.8w 55 kt
12hr VT 21/0600z 14.1n 38.2w 65 kt
24hr VT 21/1800z 14.6n 39.9w 70 kt
36hr VT 22/0600z 15.2n 41.6w 75 kt
48hr VT 22/1800z 15.9n 43.2w 75 kt
72hr VT 23/1800z 16.7n 46.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 24/1800z 17.0n 49.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 25/1800z 17.0n 52.0w 75 kt
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