5pm Jeanne-Hurricane again with 85 mph winds

Website · #1 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 3:34 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TNT21.KNHC

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 3:36 pm

Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 29

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2004

...Jeanne strengthens back into a hurricane east of the Bahamas...
...No immediate threat to any land areas...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 27.4 north...longitude 71.2 west or about 370
miles... 595 km...east-northeast of great abaco island.

Jeanne is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph...11 km/hr... and
a gradual turn toward the east accompanied by a decrease in forward
speed is expected later tonight or on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds reported by an Air Force Reserve hurricane
aircraft are near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 983 mb...29.03 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...27.4 N... 71.2 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 983 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

James · #3 Postby **James** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 3:46 pm

That's her strongest yet. :eek:

#4 Postby **mascpa** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 3:50 pm

Have it completing its loop and headed back NE at the end of the forecast period. Seems fishy to me but as we all know, forecasts after three days can be subject to huge errors. Jeanne just loves attention, looks like we're just going to have to spend a few days paying her the attention she craves before we can get a handle about where she will go eventually. Something else I learned from Frances - I hate the waitiing.

yoda · #5 Postby **yoda** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 3:50 pm

Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 29

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2004

the initial motion estimate is now 035/06. Air Force Reserve recon
fix positions...along with high-resolution visible satellite
imagery indicate Jeanne has finally made the turn to the northeast
...And may even be moving more toward the east-northeast. NHC model
guidance remains in good agreement...except for the GFS and the
GFS-based BAM models...that the steering flow will collapse in
24-48 hours as a deep trough to the north of the cyclone moves
eastward and picks up Hurricane Karl while leaving Jeanne behind. A
mid-level ridge is then forecast to build to the north of Jeanne
and block any significant northward motion until another trough
moves in and replaces the ridge in 96-120 hours. The official
forecast track is an update of the previous track and maintains the
small anticyclonic loop in the forecast after 72 hours...which is
consistent with the NHC model consensus.

Jeanne has continued to develop good banding features and the
inner-core region has become tighter. A banding eye feature has
developed in satellite imagery...and recon reports indicate a 20-30
nmi closed eye. A 20/2003z recon flight-level wind of 93 kt at 5000
ft and a 983 mb central pressure justifies increasing the intensity
to 75 kt. The upper-level environment is expected to remain
favorable for some additional strengthening for the next 24-36
hours. Afterwards...an east-west oriented upper-level trough pushes
southward and induces westerly vertical shear across the cyclone.
The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than the SHIPS
intensity model due to the higher initial intensity.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/2100z 27.4n 71.2w 75 kt
12hr VT 21/0600z 27.6n 70.7w 80 kt
24hr VT 21/1800z 27.7n 69.9w 85 kt
36hr VT 22/0600z 27.6n 69.2w 80 kt
48hr VT 22/1800z 27.2n 68.8w 75 kt
72hr VT 23/1800z 26.5n 69.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 24/1800z 27.0n 69.5w 65 kt
120hr VT 25/1800z 28.0n 68.0w 55 kt

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 4:04 pm

By the looks of that high building in from the north I would think that Jeanne starts moving WSW fairly soon.

wxwatcher2 · #7 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 4:14 pm

MIA_canetrakker wrote:By the looks of that high building in from the north I would think that Jeanne starts moving WSW fairly soon.

I don't think so........
It's highly unlikely. I'd say only a 5 percent chance.....

Sanibel · #8 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 4:31 pm

You could see this morning that there would be a jump back to hurricane quickly, no delay.

I won't even guess at a track. I can only add that the season is transitioning and troughs will have more curve than those before...

Guest · #9 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 4:32 pm

Good than lets get Jeanne & Karl out of the way & get the next batch of storms over here.

canegrl04 · #10 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 5:03 pm

Theres going to be massive traffic congestion in the tropics if Jeanne takes her sweet time about moving her butt

Patrick99 · #11 Postby **Patrick99** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 6:47 pm

All right Jeanne-baby! What a comeback!

So why *wouldn't* she start moving WSW under that big high building in? I am not sure I understand.

5pm Jeanne-Hurricane again with 85 mph winds

5pm Jeanne-Hurricane again with 85 mph winds

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