POSTED: September 20, 2004 5:36 a.m.
1) Ivan. The remnants of the storm will cross Florida from the east Monday and be in the Gulf near 26 north and 85 west by Tuesday morning. 10-15 foot seas and gales will hit the northeastern coast of Florida Monday. The system will re-organize Tuesday and could be a 50-60 knot tropical storm by Thursday. It is likely to be given a new name since it will be a completely new surface circulation. Since the Tropical Depression in the eastern Atlantic will be named Lisa within the next 24-36 hours, what develops in the Gulf will most likely become Matthew. Regardless of the name of the system, or it's speed of movement, it appears the Texas or Louisiana coast might have to deal with it later in the week. 2) Jeanne. We are at odds with our good friends at TPC. First of all, Jeanne may still be on the charts and near the coast next weekend. We feel it will perform a loop by Wednesday and start back for the coast, and there is a chance, given the upper-level pattern, that it could impact U.S. weather next weekend. We also do not see any reason why this storm will not develop to a category 2 or perhaps greater hurricane, unless the storm sits and spins over the same water for a few days. In that case, upwelling could eventually weaken it. The bulk of non U.S generated models have the loop and it fits a nice analog, though further east in the end game, to Betsy in 1965. The current AccuWeather forecast calls for a loop and then a turn back towards the west, with possible impact late this week. 3) Karl will recurve and not hit the States. 4) Lisa should develop over the next few days from Tropical Depression 13, but it is too early to say whether it will suffer the same fate as Karl or come farther west. The ridge of upper-level high pressure over Hurricane Karl may push Lisa further west, allowing it to make it to the Lesser Antilles and perhaps later, the United States. However, any U.S. impact is still about 2 or more weeks away.
Ivan's ghost
