Finally some Texas action?

raynpa · #1 Postby **raynpa** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 5:40 pm

As for what's left of Ivan, one can argue that the enhancement coming across Florida from the east is what is left of that storm. At any rate, with an old front dissipating across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and big high pressure over the northeast, plus the low pressure that is Jeanne east of the Bahamas, that pressure gradient, or pressure difference alone is the main reason for strong gusty winds on the east coast of Florida, and from the Space Coast south, showers and thunderstorms. Along the end of this front, in the Gulf of Mexico, underneath that big high, we will be watching for tropical development this week. This development would seem likely to affect the Texas coast later in the week.

any thoughts?

#2 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 6:13 pm

Just be carefull what you wish for!! :eek:

GalvestonDuck · #3 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 6:13 pm

I'll take a little rain, thank you very much. But I'd rather not have to deal with anything else with a name.

#4 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 6:16 pm

TampaFl wrote:Just be carefull what you wish for!!

ditto

golter · #5 Postby **golter** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:35 pm

Front will be her by Saturday afternoon, something better develop and get here soon. Its pretty late in season for Texas. Can happen, just not likely. "Ivan 2" has a long way to go before anyone needs to get alarmed.

Hurricane Derek · #6 Postby **Hurricane Derek** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:41 pm

This low will be here late Thursday into Friday into SE Texas, before the front gets here. There is some potential for slow development as it heads into the West Gulf. As for Texas and being late, 1989 proved that Texas can get a sufficent cyclone even late in the season (Late Sept. into Mid Oct.) as Hurricane Jerry plowed into Galveston with winds of 85mph. It's all about timing inbetween fronts.

corpusbreeze · #7 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:50 pm

golter wrote:Front will be her by Saturday afternoon, something better develop and get here soon. Its pretty late in season for Texas. Can happen, just not likely. "Ivan 2" has a long way to go before anyone needs to get alarmed.

What it intereting is the front is not forcast to push through to the gulf but stall over the coast line. This could stall the low in the gulf right offshore and give it more time over the warm untested waters of the western gulf. It will be all about timing.

#8 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:00 pm

The "stall and meander" theory is what most of today's GFS runs were suggesting with a minimal tropical cyclone staying offshore but close enough to make it very wet between Victoria and Galveston!!

I might add that I don't know how reliable the GFS is this week. Who knows? The Euro didn't do so well either lately with tropical systems. Both are mid-range models.

We could use the rain here in So.Central Texas ... but I agree on keeping anything with a name far away!

Stratosphere747 · #9 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:05 pm

Easy there....We do not need anything that would resemble Allison...

#10 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:17 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Easy there....We do not need anything that would resemble Allison...

True Strat .... true! Nobody needs to see that again. Anywhere.

GalvestonDuck · #11 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:52 pm

golter wrote:Front will be her by Saturday afternoon, something better develop and get here soon. Its pretty late in season for Texas. Can happen, just not likely. "Ivan 2" has a long way to go before anyone needs to get alarmed.

Uh, no thanks.

#12 Postby **Canebo** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:59 pm

I agree we do not need anything with a name or that produces flooding rains. However, we have not had any measurable rain here in League City since June, and I would welcome almost anything short of that.
I have tried washing the car, rain dances, and outdoor bbq's, but none of these things that normally would gurantee a 2" rain storm have worked this year. Let's hope Ivan's spawn has a little good in him. The original was just plain evil.

#13 Postby **Houstonia** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:59 pm

My mother (who is even more of a weather fan than I!) has been talking about how warm the water temps are off of Galveston - how this is certainly NOT going to deter tropical development.

But - saying that - neither she nor I will welcome any named storms headed our way.

Like the others say - we need the rain - but can you imagine 10-15 inches of rain on top of our parched soil??

stormie_skies · #14 Postby **stormie_skies** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 10:01 pm

Ackkkkkk I have to go to Dallas on Thursday!!!

Someone please tell Ivanette to hold off until Friday....I could use an extra day off work...

Finally some Texas action?

Finally some Texas action?

Water Temps off of Texas Coast?

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