Little Lisa looking depressed this evening...

[Hyperstorm]

Satellite images indicate that Tropical Storm Lisa is experiencing northerly shear from the outflow of Hurricane Karl to its northwest. Intensity estimates will probably come down a bit tonight and maybe even the official intensity. Afterwards, as Karl moves away, shear resulting from it will decrease; however, if latest images don't lie, we might wait a little longer to see Lisa becoming a hurricane. Karl has slowed down this evening which might keep Lisa from intensifying much in the short term.

Don't expect Lisa to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours at the very least.

On the other hand, the disturbance behind Lisa is becoming better organized and a tropical depression could develop by Tuesday afternoon...

[Stormsfury]

Lisa's intensity today is much higher than satellite estimates suggest ...

VIS imagery tells the tale with a David and Goliath scenario ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

[Hyperstorm]

Yeah, this afternoon the system was very near hurricane strength, but this evening, outflow from Karl has begun affecting it. Intensity estimates are low now...35kts...45kts...and they could come down even more if the LLC becomes partially exposed as it appears to be doing...

[Javlin]

This is what keep Lisa in check for the short term W motion.If she develops to fast she will be influenced by the trofs to the N to easily.Karl continues to go NW then NNW getting out Lisa's way and opens the door for Lisa W.

[panichead4469]

a NEW disturbance behind Lisa? :sigh: could this mean 4 storms? ..and with Ivan possibly reforming...would that be a record at 5 storms at the same time?

[Stormsfury]

Yeah, this afternoon the system was very near hurricane strength, but this evening, outflow from Karl has begun affecting it. Intensity estimates are low now...35kts...45kts...and they could come down even more if the LLC becomes partially exposed as it appears to be doing...

Intensity estimates from SSD were low even when the banding type eye appeared this morning on Lisa's upgrade ... and why TPC went higher than the satellite estimates and have been consistently higher due to the structuring of Lisa ... now, on the other hand, with such a small cyclone, any little disruption or enhancement will greatly affect Lisa ...

Which also lends credence that the region actually may have more "technically speaking" tropical cyclones/storms that come off of Africa in that region, but are quickly ripped apart ... b/c of the inability to survey the storm via RECON, and using only satellite estimates ... which is also why sometimes (can think of several "named" tropical cyclones before this year (2002-Grace, cough, cough) which were upgraded based on RECON findings, where satellite estimates would have never given a qualification the time of day ... but that's another debate, another time ...

SF

[Hyperstorm]

Thanks for the comments. I knew that intensity estimates were low, but my comment referred to the estimates being low now, imagine if the LLC became exposed. There wouldn't be a Lisa according to the estimates if it happened...

As you pointed out, I can remember several waves that developed strongly and were likely weak tropical storms at one point of their lives, but later dissipated. There should be funding for a project to investigate these tropical waves that emerge Africa.

Even though, there's no land that could be affected for several thousand miles, it will be interesting for record-keeping...