Impact to Pensacola? How Accurate are Reports?

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 7:32 pm

Ok...folks who know me know that I do not spread rumors, nor am I too fast to jump on things...but I have two people I work with, whom I also have a high degree of respect for, who have direct family in and around the Pensacola/panhandle area.

Both of them have been very clear on the fact that the damage, especially in terms of the number of people who were killed by this storm...is severly understated.

I will not go into specific detail here because I do not want to start any rumors, in case we are getting bad information, but the overall impact to people on the barrier islands appears to be very sketchy.

For example, one of the people has a direct contact in an administrative position at one of the 5 area hospitals and they are also expressing this idea.

Some specific accounts I have learned about include some people stranded on a buoy calling in for help after their phone dried out. Another man was found at the top of a power pole.

Of course, we also heard this type of reporting during Charley but it could not be verified. If there is significantly higher loss of life than what is being reported...it would be a huge story for any news outlet so I find it hard to believe that somebody isn't jumping on it.

So...part of me really wants to believe that only 20 some people were killed in the storm in that area. But that number hasn't changed much over the weekend...surely others have been found. Understanding the scope of that surge it seems very possible...has anyone else heard anything different?

MW

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 7:39 pm

Mike, last we were told on local news, was that there were anywhere from 30 to 40 people still unaccounted for in the Perdido Bay and Lillian,Al area just west of Pensacola, not sure of any other missing folks. Sorry wish we had more info. There is one problem with the current media attention and that is the fact that areas north of Gulf Shores, Al. and Perdido Bay took severe hits, especially Atmore, Brewton and Monroeville,Al and Cantonment, Fl., granted the beaches took a tremendous pounding.

Bluefrog · #3 Postby **Bluefrog** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 7:44 pm

Mike, I live in Pascagoula, Mississippi and had dinner last night with someone who drove to Pensacola on Saturday to check on an employee. This guy said that Pensacola was absolutely devastated and that he had never seen anything like it. He said it was pretty similar to the destruction after Mt. St. Helens. He also said the death total had to be higher too.

Another footnote, I spoke with a guy that I storm chase with (tornadoes) and he was there for Ivan and he also the death toll had to be higher due to the storm surge.

#4 Postby **HeatherAKC** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 7:48 pm

Mike, you know this always comes out after a major storm. I don't know what to make of it. If it's true? Why hide it? How is it hidden so well? I just don't know the answers, but it comes up after every storm. Someone I know very well, have known for years and is practically part of my family held an administrative postion at Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami after Andrew. She tells of a large amount of refridgerated trucks 2-4 days after the storm. Full. Why would she make this up? How is this covered up? My spectulation is that many of the proposed deceased in South Dade were migrant workers with no family here and no paperwork. I really don't know who to believe but it always seems to come up!

depotoo · #5 Postby **depotoo** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 7:50 pm

Today's latest updates of all counties in Florida- with fatalites - recovery teams deployed, etc.

http://www.floridadisaster.org/eoc/eoc_ ... 1-temp.pdf

Also - this link has daily reports, pics etc. from fema

http://floridadisaster.org/eoc/ivan04.asp

birdwomn · #6 Postby **birdwomn** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 7:52 pm

I don't think they have any confirmation on anything as yet, so we need to wait and see. They have found some people who didn't evacuate at thier homes cleaning up, but safe.

I don't think they know how many people decided to ride out the storm. The hope is that the people who are missing have safely evacuated to other areas.

Given the destruction, additional loss of life is probable, but there is no proof as yet.

Derecho · #7 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:02 pm

The problem with vacation/second home areas is that it's awfully hard to tell who is around at any given moment. I worked part-time for the 2000 Census and was assigned some coastal vacation/second home areas and it's painfully difficult to tell exactly where the heck people were at any given moment. And people often don't know their neighbors or what their schedules are.

#8 Postby **baygirl_1** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:10 pm

I, too, have heard reports out of Pensacola that the official counts are being grossly understated. However, I cannot see how the officials over there could possibly keep a lid on such a story. I mean, the place is crawling with news media!
As for not having an accurate count of those who rode out the storm in the hardest hit areas: that is so true! I had some friends who, as of last Wed. morning, were insisting on riding it out at their homes in mandatory evac. zones. But, by that afternoon, they were all on there way to safer areas. Thank goodness! So, some may have decided to leave at the last minute. We can only hope.
I sure hope and pray those stories of more missing or dead are not true.

SouthernWx · #9 Postby **SouthernWx** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:12 pm

Mike, I'd be surprised if less than 100 people died along the coast between Mobile Bay and Fort Walton Beach. I haven't seen a storm surge that devastating since Hugo...and this didn't impact a sparsely populated area NE of Charleston. If there were folks who stayed on Santa Rosa island west of Navarre....and along the Bama coast east of Fort Morgan, I don't see how they could have survived....unless they were just plain lucky (and very good swimmers), because it appears the barrier islands and immediate shoreline went underwater (as did areas near Pensacola Bay).

I know Frederic was a 110-115 kt cat-3....because I was in Mobile when he slammed ashore.
The damage from Ivan is worse..the storm surge is higher and the wind damage more extensive (i.e.- many complete building failures; extensive damage to hi-rise structures along the beachfront.

I now believe Ivan was a cat-4 at landfall....because a cat-3 doesn't cause a storm surge that high in that area (the slope offshore Pensacola isn't quite as shallow as many areas of the Gulf Coast....so storm surge heights SHOULD be lower there than in Tampa, Cedar Key, Gulfport/ Biloxi, Grand Isle, or Galveston)....apparently in this case it wasn't.

#10 Postby **Cookiely** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:13 pm

I remember one of the local mets in Tampa talking about Perdido Key and Perdido beach being (these are my words but the essence of what he said was they were wiped clean and devastated). After I kept searching for accounts and never heard mention of this area. Have any of you heard or seen pictures of this area. Hopefully everyone evacuated. I can't see any reason to not reveal the truth because frankly it might impress other people to evacuate the next time. Would there be any confidentiality issues with the family? Perhaps they have a right to privacy and their deaths not reported to the press.

StormWatcher2 · #11 Postby **StormWatcher2** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:15 pm

Mike, my wife and I traveled to Tallahassee to see our family on Friday. We traveled south from Montgomery and got on to the I-10 east bound at Marianna. As expected, the west bound lanes were full of utility trucks, tree removal service trucks, Red Cross vehicles, ambulances, and military convoys.

The one thing that caught my eye, and has stuck in my mind, was the sight of a semi truck being escorted at a high rate of speed by two Sheriff's cars. The truck trailer was boldly lettered "Southwest Florida Urban Search and Rescue Unit, Ft. Myers, FL".

I hope that this particular unit travels to all disasters as a matter of standard procedure. But, my first thought was that the situation must be xtremely grim for them to bring this particular Search and Rescue Unit that far with a police escort.

I would like to know more.

Matthew5 · #12 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:19 pm

Stormwatcher2, I would not be surprized at all if they are not telling us the full story. With all we know that freaking truck like the ones with hurricane Andrew...In 1992 where full to the top with bodies. A storm of this scale hitting a area like this just think about it. Also the surge could of already piled up from the storm being a cat5 days before the system hit the coast?

#13 Postby **SeaBrz_FL** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:34 pm

This debate has gone on in FL for years over several of the major storms, and I have several personal emails saved from people asking the exact same questions.

My email senders "knows someone" that worked at Jackson Memorial after Andrew, "rode out Charley" in Punta Gorda and "saw body bags", etc. and now we have another FL Hurricane bringing up the same issues.

I've been on the "Internet" (wasn't called that then) since 1982 and totally understand the "urban legend" thing, but I'm starting to get a little skeptical about 12 years of storm fatality statistics that so widely differ from initial press reports and nobody explains the difference when the "official" report gets published.

I highly buy-in to the "missing, later found to safe at their summer home" theory, but I just don't understand why it's not addressed. It seems easy to say that "800 people are missing" and then later "785 people accounted for" stories, but we never see that in our press.

I'm as stumped as the rest of you.

#14 Postby **Terry** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:36 pm

StormWatcher2 wrote:...The one thing that caught my eye, and has stuck in my mind, was the sight of a semi truck being escorted at a high rate of speed by two Sheriff's cars. The truck trailer was boldly lettered "Southwest Florida Urban Search and Rescue Unit, Ft. Myers, FL".

I hope that this particular unit travels to all disasters as a matter of standard procedure. But, my first thought was that the situation must be xtremely grim for them to bring this particular Search and Rescue Unit that far with a police escort.

I remember hearing about that S and R Unit - basically returning a favor since Panhandle unit had been to SW FL after Charley.

Lindaloo · #15 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:40 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:I, too, have heard reports out of Pensacola that the official counts are being grossly understated. However, I cannot see how the officials over there could possibly keep a lid on such a story. I mean, the place is crawling with news media!
As for not having an accurate count of those who rode out the storm in the hardest hit areas: that is so true! I had some friends who, as of last Wed. morning, were insisting on riding it out at their homes in mandatory evac. zones. But, by that afternoon, they were all on there way to safer areas. Thank goodness! So, some may have decided to leave at the last minute. We can only hope.
I sure hope and pray those stories of more missing or dead are not true.

They are keeping the media in certain locations and the media can only fly the coastline.

Sometimes emergency management will withhold death counts until family members can be located and investigations completed. Also identifying people.

jes · #16 Postby **jes** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:47 pm

I talked to my step-daughter who lives in Orange Beach on Friday. She told me her friend from Pensacola was cleaning up after the storm and cut his hand, so he went for stitches to the hospital. He said something like he was glad only ???? many people had lost their lives and the nurse at the hospital said to him "are you kidding - there are 40 bodies back there in the morgue (sp?) right now."

#17 Postby **baygirl_1** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:52 pm

[quote/]They are keeping the media in certain locations and the media can only fly the coastline.[/quote]

Linda--
Are you referring to Florida? I've seen reporters doing reports on the ground in Orange Beach and West Beach (of Gulf Shores). But, I don't recall seeing anything other than aerial shots of Perdido Key and Pensacola Beach. Of course, Grande Lagoon seems totally locked down. Also, reports from Navarre Beach have been few and far between.

Ixolib · #18 Postby **Ixolib** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:03 pm

Also... Considering the surge damage to the bridge - seemingly more than 10 miles north of the coast - what's the word coming from all those small towns on the northeastern end of the bay? Seems to me the surge would had to have been pretty extreme up there as well.

smashmode · #19 Postby **smashmode** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:05 pm

Bluefrog wrote:. He said it was pretty similar to the destruction after Mt. St. Helens.
.

yzerfan · #20 Postby **yzerfan** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:24 pm

Randy Hammer: TV reports of more deaths are not true

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... eaths.html

Of the north bay parts of the map, there are a ton of pictures of damage in the Floridatown area, and I've also seen pix of damage around Mulat bayou.

As for the Florida barrier islands, they were very thoroughly evacuated. People remember how badly Opal tore up Navarre Beach, and got out when told to do so. The developments around Grand Lagoon are fairly recent (ie newer building codes) and there really aren't that many of them yet. It's a still mostly rural area directly under the noisy part of the NAS flight path.

Account from Navarre Beach:

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/gforum.cgi? ... ead#unread

Doesn't sound like anyone David knows tried to stay behind.

Impact to Pensacola? How Accurate are Reports?

Impact to Pensacola? How Accurate are Reports?

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