Rumors of the death of TS Jeanne have been exaggerated

[Weatherman911]

The Larry Cosgrove report for Mon. 9/20/04

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

(monitoring tropical or subtropical disturbances in the oceanic theaters of the northern hemisphere)

Rumors of the death of Tropical Storm Jeanne have been greatly exaggerated. No, the extratropical version of Ivan did not eat up the circulation (although the converted cold system did grab moisture from the warm-core cyclone). No, Jeanne is not subtropical or hybrid (despite permeation of dry air from the northwest). And no, the computer models are NOT unanimous in taking Jeanne out to sea (indeed, the 12z Sep 19 runs of the ECMWF and GGEM show a risk for landfall or at least impact on apparent weather for the Northeast and Maritime Provinces).

I suspect that with weak steering currents (the "Ivan trough" is lifting out), Jeanne will meander about the Sargasso Sea through the near term. Then, as the strong ridge complex over the eastern states moves into the Atlantic Ocean, Jeanne will recurve westward at a latitude close to that of Jacksonville FL. With the approach of the trough now located over the Intermountain Region (which by 96 hours and beyond will be a shortwave), Jeanne will assume a northwest, then northward turn closely parallel to the shoreline of the Mid-Atlantic states.

I suspect that the scenario shown by the European model (phasing with the trough and a high-impact rain event from PA and NJ into N Br....NS....PEI) will come closest to reality. The 0z Sep 20 GGEM version and its slow, bombastic but utterly ridiculous offshore superstorm is discarded here, since the Canadian model has an initialization error in its display of the western U.S. trough complex (too weak). I also threw out the 0z Sep 20 GFS panels which seemed to completely miss the presence of Jeanne.

Hurricane Karl is a magnificent, almost textbook case of what a well-formed tropical cyclone should look like. That said, Karl is headed straight for the "hurricane graveyard" near Greenland by 144 hours.

Tropical Depression 13, meanwhile, is struggling in the outflow shadow of Karl. TD 13 and/or another impressive "Cape Verde" impulse over the Equatorial Eastern Atlantic Ocean will probably take a westward track, posing a probable danger to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico within five days. Both of these features could reach named storm status during the next day or so.

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