I strongly feel the NHC 5 day fcast should be shelved

[MBryant]

The five day forecast is like any other tool. It can be used beneficially by the skilled and knowledgable or misused by the talking heads who wouldn't know a millibar from the Copa Cabana.

Sensationalization of ALL stories is the rule in the media as old school journalism disappears. Case in point: Both Walter Cronkite and Dan Rather have a distinct liberal bias; however, Walter was a journalist first and could be trusted while Rather is a partisan first who tries to act like a journalist.

There needs to be some sort of MEANINGFULL professional standard that the public could use to determine the skill level of professionals. This would also be good for other professions such as lawyers and doctors.

[Cookiely]

I fell like it should be shelved for the public. They can always share with the government and emergency personnel.

[mascpa]

Sorry Larry but I'm going to have to disagree with you. I think it should be kept. The problem isn't with the 5 day forecast ( they go to great lengths to qualify their forecasting0, the problem is with how the media communicates it and how individuals interpret and use it. Working for government, we found it useful in assiting us with our planning and when to implement certain aspects of our plan.

[weatherwoman]

they can not do a 5 day out they are so off every time they need to stay with the 3 day forcast unless they are sure without any doubt

[Agua]

I see the value with the 5 day forecast, however, I think they should either do away with the dotted line forecast "track" altogether, or limit it to three days only with gradient shading from the end of the three day terminus to the outer edges of the error cone.

[Guest]

They need to lock up that 5 day forecast & throw away the key until it is way more accurate.I knew when I 1st heard about this that it would do nothing more than create a premature panic.

[x-y-no]

It should be shelved.

The forecasts for Ivan swung from Wilmington, NC to New Orleans, LA.
Way too inaccurate.

At TLHR, I am no longer posting statements based upon 5 day forecasts.

Well, I couldn't remember Wilmington NC ever being in the 5-day for Ivan, so I just went to the archive to double-check. Sure enough, the 5-day forecast point never got any further north in the Atlantic than the central Bahamas.

Or are you just talking about being in the cone? If so, I would point out that with the exception of two frames, Ivan's actual track was within the 5-day probability area for his entire life, albeit consistantly near the left perimiter of that cone.

Personally, I find the 5-day forecast valuable so long as one keeps the NHC's caveat in mind.

[Downdraft]

The five day forecast was orginially developed to help shipping interests chart courses around tropical cyclones. It is hyped far to much by the media and some in here. It should be relegated to the trash heap cause it's worthless IMHO.

[SootyTern]

They could keep the 5-day forecast with the other marine advisory products and present just the 3-day to the general media. Or keep the cone of the 4 & 5 day but don't draw out the center track line past 3 days. I've also noticed that the 4/5 day cone is stippled in the NHC advisory graphics compared to a solid white 1/3 day cone but this is often all portrayed in the same or similar color schemes on graphics done by other media outlets. IMO the NHC map graphics make the increased uncertainty of days 4/5 much clearer than many other forecast maps, which is important for the average person who doesn't pay much attention to weather except at times like these.

[TLHR]

It should be shelved.

The forecasts for Ivan swung from Wilmington, NC to New Orleans, LA.
Way too inaccurate.

At TLHR, I am no longer posting statements based upon 5 day forecasts.

Well, I couldn't remember Wilmington NC ever being in the 5-day for Ivan, so I just went to the archive to double-check. Sure enough, the 5-day forecast point never got any further north in the Atlantic than the central Bahamas.

Or are you just talking about being in the cone? If so, I would point out that with the exception of two frames, Ivan's actual track was within the 5-day probability area for his entire life, albeit consistantly near the left perimiter of that cone.

Personally, I find the 5-day forecast valuable so long as one keeps the NHC's caveat in mind.

I think it was the cone after all.

The 5 day forecast for Jeanne however, went from Beaufort one day to Daytona Beach the very next day. Now it's round and round and round....

As for an earlier comment, TLHR is my small humble Yahoo Group: The Lowcountry Hurricane Resource. I recently made a comment about how South Carolina was going to get swamped by the rains of Ivan and Jeanne only to have it be sunny out. So no more posting based on 5 day forecasts. Tired of getting burned.

[ColdFront77]

It isn't like the forecast cone is the same or narrows on Day 4 and 5.

The 120 hour forecast portion of the forecast cone (the northernmost portion) for Ivan at 5:00 AM EDT on Wednesday, September 8th
was about 500 miles in length... from about 260 miles south of Alabama, AL to near Jacksonville, FL; which is about a 450 mile span.

[Rainband]

I think the 5 day forecast saved a lot of lives Like I said, I would rather leave 5 times and not have too, than stay the one time I should have left.

[dhweather]

The five day is not perfect. Not even close at times.

BUT.....

It's progress. Years ago, it was just SWAGS on
where a storm would go. Now we have an idea, albeit general at best.

People just need to understand that days 4-5 are far from perfect and give researchers time to make the models better.

[lapeym]

It's takes a LONG time to evacuate our largest cities on the coast. WE NEED the 5 day forecast if for any other reason to stress the importance of evacuation preparation 96 hours out rather waiting to 72 hours to see if the NHC confirms a direct hit.

[ColdFront77]

Another thing, the official projected track from the NHC for the next 72 hours have changed quite a bit.

The initial three day forecasts had Ivan heading toward Florida. As new data came the track changed
and became more accurate as landfall approached. They were first gradual without enough information.

[TLHR]

It's takes a LONG time to evacuate our largest cities on the coast. WE NEED the 5 day forecast if for any other reason to stress the importance of evacuation preparation 96 hours out rather waiting to 72 hours to see if the NHC confirms a direct hit.

If we had more accurate forecasts, the number of people who needed to be evacuated would be smaller.

[Robert]

I vote the 5 day forcast stay. If I find that I am "in the cone" it raises my awareness a bit. If I am "in the cone" and I happen to be going past the store on the way home, I might pick up a loaf of bread or gallon of milk (we will use it anyway). I might start up the generator and exercise it a bit (just to make sure it will start if I need it, something you are supposed to do regularly anyway). Certainly not panic mode, but just make sure that things are in order should you need them. If the cone moves the other way, great! I don't have to go to the store for bread or milk, and I know my generator is still in good shape.

I think that the media just has to be very clear when they are talking about hurricanes and possibilities. Here is the "cone" for day 5, which means that it could be here, or here, or anywhere in between (or maybe, nowhere in that cone). I think that the public (some of them anyway) realize that the 5 day is just a "heads up," and not saying that a hurricane will hit you in 5 days.

[Guest]

They tried it,it was not accurate,not successful..It DID NOT save any lives & seriously hurt the economy in The Keys a place that can't afford to have tourists evacuated & their businesses shut down every time that a hurricane is SE of Jamaica moving @ 7 MPH.Not to mention that people down there have been saying that they are not going to leave the next time they are ordered to until they are sure that a storm will strike.

[TLHR]

You know... business can now track our buying habits, but no one can accurately predict where a 200 mile wide storm is going to go...

[Guest]

You know... business can now track our buying habits, but no one can accurately predict where a 200 mile wide storm is going to go...

So should or shouldnt they keep the 5 day forecast,seems like you dont know if your coming or going.

BTW... Don't roll your eyes @ me,that something only my mother can do