Potential Of Ivan's 3rd cousin

[Stormcenter]

I know potential won't buy you anything but
I really think the 3rd cousin of Ivan or whatever really has
the "potential" to develop. It's is not moving as fast as it was when it was approaching Florida.
This should help it's chances for developing, IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I know potential won't buy you anything but
I really think the 3rd cousin of Ivan or whatever really has
the "potential" to develop. It's is not moving as fast as it was when it was approaching Florida.
This should help it's chances for developing, IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I dont count after second cousins...

[birdwomn]

OMG! I don't wanna even think about Ivan part 2, even the Ghost of Ivan

[Cookiely]

Texas needs the rain according to another poster.

[LaBreeze]

Rain is needed badly here in SW Louisiana also. What are our chances of getting some with this system? Anyone?

[Houstonia]

Texas needs the rain according to another poster.

We're doing rain dances up here in beautiful Cypress, Texas...(approx. 27 miles from downtown Houston)

[Derecho]

1) Huge amounts of shear over it now

2) Based on the 18Z GFS the shear forecast has actually gotten worse, indicating it would be badly sheared all the way across the GOM

3) Massive cooled wake from Ivan in the Eastern GOM

4) ENORMOUS area of BONE DRY air covering the entire GOM...in fact, the air shows up as "Saharan" Air Layer at CIMISS though it's not from the Sahara..but it's even DRYER than a typical SAL outbreak, which has annihilated fully-formed hurricanes before, much less weak vortices.

5) There's barely anything to it at the moment

[Yankeegirl]

Hey Houstonia, Im in the Cypress area as well... Where are you at?

[Houstonia]

Hey Houstonia, Im in the Cypress area as well... Where are you at?

Well, I work at Cy-Fair College in Cypress - I actually live in the county though... unincorporated Bear Creek Park area...

[LaBreeze]

So dry here in SW Louisiana - "Saharan" air layer! When do the camel caravans arrive? LOL

[BayouVenteux]

Rain is needed badly here in SW Louisiana also. What are our chances of getting some with this system? Anyone?

Maybe slightly more promising the further west you go, say Lake Charles or Beaumont, but most of the AFDs and models seem to indicate that as the system moves across the Gulf, it will be too far to our south so as to affect only the extreme coastal portions of the state.

I wish someone would explain to me how a.) there will be a low in the Gulf moving west under a ridge into south Texas, and b.) a front (and prefrontal trough??) moving ESE into the NW Gulf around the start of the weekend, and c.) no way for this precip from the low managing to get pulled up ahead of the frontal boundary and over south Louisiana, as we are forecasted to see at best a 30%-40% chance of rain on Wed/Thu., then back to high and dry 'til Thanksgiving.

[BayouVenteux]

Hey Houstonia, Im in the Cypress area as well... Where are you at?

Well, I work at Cy-Fair College in Cypress - I actually live in the county though... unincorporated Bear Creek Park area...

Did you say...BEAR?
J/K...referring to another hysterical thread from earlier today.

BTW, I was a Klein Bearkat many, many, many moons ago. Not far from the Cy-Fair area.

[amawea]

Bayou V., where did you get the dry till Thansgiving? I'd like to know the person that put that out. He's a good long range forecaster and can see into the future. I think this low/td will hang around in the Gulf and give you guys some rain. The shear will go away in a couple of days,you watch and see.
Amawea

[ColdFront77]

3) Massive cooled wake from Ivan in the Eastern GOM

Here is a question that isn't brought up: What is the minimal amount of days for upwelling from a previous storm cause poor conditions for a tropical system to form?

The sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are in the mid to upper 80's. Upwelling doesn't cool the water more than 3 to 6 degrees, and even so low to mid 80's is plenty warm for tropical cyclone development.

[LaBreeze]

During the evening weather report I saw that waters off the SW LA coast were hovering around 85 and 86 degrees. That's still pretty warm.

[Stratosphere747]

I was thinking the same thing...Even as strong as Ivan was he was moving at a fairly good clip thru there...Now I can see the sheer shunting off any development...But it sure is a pesky feature... Is that sheer all thru the gulf or just the Northern part?

[Stormcenter]

1) Huge amounts of shear over it now

2) Based on the 18Z GFS the shear forecast has actually gotten worse, indicating it would be badly sheared all the way across the GOM

3) Massive cooled wake from Ivan in the Eastern GOM

4) ENORMOUS area of BONE DRY air covering the entire GOM...in fact, the air shows up as "Saharan" Air Layer at CIMISS though it's not from the Sahara..but it's even DRYER than a typical SAL outbreak, which has annihilated fully-formed hurricanes before, much less weak vortices.

5) There's barely anything to it at the moment

Yet the NHC says this:

WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...A PARTIAL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IVAN...IS LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

[Stormcenter]

3) Massive cooled wake from Ivan in the Eastern GOM

Here is a question that isn't brought up: What is the minimal amount of days for upwelling from a previous storm cause poor conditions for a tropical system to form?

The sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are in the mid to upper 80's. Upwelling doesn't cool the water more than 3 to 6 degrees, and even so low to mid 80's is plenty warm for tropical cyclone development.

Good point.

If I recall correctly Ana formed in upper 70 degree temperatures in the Atlantic in April. I don't see that as an issue as much as the possible shear.

[snowflake]

Rain is needed badly here in SW Louisiana also. What are our chances of getting some with this system? Anyone?

The local mets here are saying 40% Thursday through Friday. The National Weather Service has 50% for Houston. The best chances of rain according to The National Weather Service would be along the Louisana coast and that Ivans remnents is headed for Texas. They also said that it is not expected to develop into anything tropical.

[Yankeegirl]

Hey, I go tot the Cy Fair College!! Used to work at GlenCairn animal clinic off Hw6 and Cairnway... We are right down the road from each other!! Im at 529 and Barker Cypress... We might have run into each other, and not have even known it.. lol..