FWIW, the latest versions of the GFS (0Z) ,CDN (GEM) (0Z), NOGAPS (0Z), and ECMWF (12Z) ALL have Jeanne getting closer to the SE coast vs. their respective prior runs. As a matter of fact, both the NOGAPS and CDN are much further west with the NOGAPS threatening NC near day 6. The NOGAPS 12Z run was only as far west as 73W, but now (0Z run) is all the way to 78W. More dramatically, the CDN was only as far west as ~68W for late week and moving NEward on its 12Z run, but now (0Z run) is all the way back to 78W by early next week!
The ECMWF has shifted more modestly from 73W on its 0Z run to 75W on this evening's 12Z run. Regarding the GFS, its 12Z run had moved Jeanne pretty steadily eastward from the start. The 18Z also moved it steadily eastward from the start, but at a slower pace. Now, the 0Z run has pretty much stalled it out for the first 3 days before it gradually accelerates eastward. It remains the most eastward of the latest medium range model runs. The latest UKMET I've seen (12Z) is the only exception I could find for the medium range models in that it is very similar to its prior run (0z), but then again I've yet to see tonight's 0Z run. I'm still not expecting a landfall on the SE coast as of now, but obviously am monitoring model trends.
Larry
Jeanne: 4 of 5 medium range models shift westward
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Jeanne: 4 of 5 medium range models shift westward
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Sep 21, 2004 1:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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