Jeanne forecast #8.. May become yet another major

Josephine96 · #1 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 8:36 am

EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST
HURRICANE JEANNE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
940 AM TUES SEPT 21ST 2004

Hurricane Jeanne continues to swirl out in the open ATL and keep forecasters guessing as to where she will end up. She had 90 mph winds as of the advisory at 5:00 this morning.

Jeanne is currently in an environment where steering currents are weak. Thus she has not been able to jerk back to the left like you think she'd do under the mammoth high pressure system.

Jeanne also continues to get better organized and I would not rule out her becoming another major hurricane. Though that might take a while..

Jeanne is forecast not to move much over the next 5 days.. A piece of what was left from Ivan appeared to have little effect on Jeanne as he crossed the Fla peninsula today. That storm could become Matthew btw if it forms in the GOM.

For now.. we are not entirely sure where Jeanne will go.. We expect her to move to the West with the influence of the High. But steering currents are so weak she may go out to sea.

Here is the current 5 day outlook on Jeanne:
Today: Still in the open ATL. Strengthens slightly. Max Winds: 95 mph
Wednesday: Not much change as she meanders. Max Winds: 95 mph
Thursday: Maybe starting to head somewhere else. Max Winds: 100 mph
Friday: We are completely clueless here.. Max Winds: 100 mph
Saturday: To the NE of the Bahamas perhaps. Max Winds: 105 mph

Track and intensity forecasts are subject to errors. Some as much as several 100 miles

DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and should not be used in making critical decisions, especially life or death decisions. For more details please listen to local media outlets or the NHC.

#2 Postby **mascpa** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 8:40 am

Friday: We are completely clueless here.
Finally, an honest forecast!
lol!! Keep up the good work John, I enjoy reading your forecasts.

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 8:44 am

LOL.. Thank you.. you are too kind..

I put that in for humor and for honesty..

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 10:01 am

As usual.. comments welcomed as I stated above..

#5 Postby **Deenac813** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 10:26 am

Josephine96 wrote:
Wednesday: Not much change as she meanders. Max Winds: 95 mph
Thursday: Maybe starting to head somewhere else. Max Winds: 100 mph
Friday: We are completely clueless here.. Max Winds: 100 mph
Saturday: To the NE of the Bahamas perhaps. Max Winds: 105 mph

I LOVE it!! Great forecast John.. and HONEST

James · #6 Postby **James** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 12:17 pm

Great forecast!

krisj · #7 Postby **krisj** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 12:22 pm

Love it! Very easy to understand. Basically, only Jeanne knows and even then she hasn't decided yet. lol.

Matt · #8 Postby **Matt** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 12:26 pm

WAY TO KEEP US GUESSING. THIS WIL BE A FUN ONE TO WATCH!

HurricaneGirl · #9 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 1:03 pm

Good job John. I too enjoy reading your forecasts.
Keep up the good work!

Josephine96 · #10 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 4:45 pm

Thank you everyone for the accolades.. I am thinking of issuing number 9 tonight.. as well as 7 and 3 on Karl and Lisa..

djti · #11 Postby **djti** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 4:50 pm

whats basis are you using for the intensity forecast? time?

thanks.

Josephine96 · #12 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 4:55 pm

I'm basing intensity on the warm waters.. plus how I've noticed the storm has merely developed slowly..

djti · #13 Postby **djti** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 4:57 pm

marginally warm....so thats 1 marginally positive....what about the huge negatives?

Jeanne forecast #8.. May become yet another major

Jeanne forecast #8.. May become yet another major

Re: Jeanne forecast #8.. May become yet another major

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