EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL STORM LISA
NJN WEATHER CENTER
950 AM TUES SEPT 21ST 2004
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to be a closed compact storm. She is slowly better organizing and may need to be watched closely just like Ms. sleepy Jeanne who refuses to go anywhere.
Lisa is currently waiting for Karl to accelerate so she can have the open ATL all to herself. Kinda like the jealous little sister who wants all the attention.
Lisa's current winds are around 60-70 mph. She will probably become a hurricane today because she's showing signs of strengthening. She also has all the warm water to work with.. Plus the appearance of what appeared to be not 1 but 2 dominant highs this morning. Only 1 forecast model I saw took Lisa out to sea this early.
The continued west movement means the Islands will have to keep a very close eye on this storm. Jeanne did a # on PR and the DR. There is the possibility Lisa could skirt the Islands to the North but we shall wait and see.
Lisa's forecast by the NHC shows her making a sudden NW NNW type of jerk near the end of the 5 day period. I don't know if I buy that scenario with all the warm water there is. Unless something comes along to pick her up and move her to another latitude.
Because of the dominant highs. Assuming Jeanne is long gone or well north or south of Lisa.. when she gets near Jeanne. Lisa may make the trek all the way across the ATL. But it's way too early to see if it'll happen. She will just need to continue to be watched as she grows.
Here is the 5 day outlook on Lisa:
Today: Becoming a hurricane. Max Winds: 75 mph
Wednesday: Still moving westward. Max Winds: 85 mph
Thursday: More West moves.. Getting stronger. Max Winds: 100 mph
Friday: Could be YET ANOTHER MAJOR. Max Winds: 115 mph
Saturday: Possible NW jog.. or still west.. Begin to watch Islands. Max Winds: 120 mph
Track and intensity forecasts are subject to errors. Some as many as several 100 miles.
DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and may not be used in making decisions, especially life or death decisions. For more details.. please listen to local media outlets or the NHC.
As always.. comments are welcomed..
Lisa forecast #2.. Making it all the way across..?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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chadtm80
Just wanted to take a second and draw everyones attention to your Disclaimer.. If you are going to post a forecast on storm2k you MUST have a disclaimer Clearly visable on it.. IE: in bold like john has it. This wa in the rules you agreed to when you registered.. I have just noticed a few lately who are not doing this.. This MUST be done.. Not only to protect you, and storm2k... But to also "protect" every member that may read it.. STORM2K TAKES NO RESPONSABILITY FOR ANY FORECASTS POSTED ON THIS SITE FROM ANY MEMBER.. If you see a forecast here that does not have a disclaimer please let me or someone on our staff know so we can take care of it..
Again Thanks and sorry for hijacking your link for a min.. But your was a good example to point out.
-s2k managemnet-
Again Thanks and sorry for hijacking your link for a min.. But your was a good example to point out.
-s2k managemnet-
Last edited by chadtm80 on Tue Sep 21, 2004 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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wxwatcher2
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Josephine96
Brcuase she wants to be looked at.See if you post a boring well its going to go like a fish and not bother anyone like NHC thinks then nobody wants to read your post
But if you post and make a topic of its going to make it across then people will read and she will be happy.
Im not saying -removed- it on anyone but just trying to get people to read is why.
But if you post and make a topic of its going to make it across then people will read and she will be happy.
Im not saying -removed- it on anyone but just trying to get people to read is why.
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Josephine96
i still see your post below about Jeene still a threat to the U.S and oh don't forget the bear aloert ONE LOL and since Karl you really can't argue with since it is already going bye bye you hype it about maybe becoming a cat 5 yet 
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Do you have any FACTS! as to why lisa will MAYBE not go NW then N like 99% of the storm casters and models say or is it just opinion?
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Do you have any FACTS! as to why lisa will MAYBE not go NW then N like 99% of the storm casters and models say or is it just opinion?
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Josephine96
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Rainband
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