Still a surface low w/ Ivan-II

[PurdueWx80]

Morning visible satellite images and surface obs from SW FL reveal the surface low has either survived the trek across the peninsula, or reformed off the SW coast of the state. There looks to be a tremendous amount of shear over the system from the upper trough over the western Gulf. Convection is intense in the vicinity of the system, but further development seems unlikely until the surface/mid circulation can maneuver itself into a lighter shear environment.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... rs_tpa.gif

[kevin]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres ... 2023&uom=E

Steady increase in winds. We'll see if the pressure does another dip down.

[Weatherboy1]

Yesterday afternoon was very weird here with Ivan II here in northern Palm Beach County. Very heavy rain coming down in buckets. Some squally weather with winds I'd guess were around 30 mph in gusts. And I believe the "eye" or center of the low actually moved over my house in Jupiter. Looking up at the sky, I could see low-level clouds scooting along to the west to my north and back to the east to my south. Also, there was a spot of clear sky almost directly overhead. Glad this didn't happen when Ivan had winds of 130 mph instead of 30!

[mascpa]

Where in Jupiter do you live? I'm out in the Farms.

[Weatherboy1]

I'm "in town," east of 95. Like I said, it was quite a sight watching this low move overhead. Reminded me of being in Jacksonville in July 2002 for my wife's 10-year high school reunion. A surface low tracked from the Gulf over into the Atlantic off the SE coast and became TS Arthur a day or so after that happened. Weird skies and lots of rain.

[Stephanie]

Can someone explain to me how this is related to Ivan when it is all the way down in the Florida peninsula? I don't understand how this moisture is related to Ivan. Thanks!

[vbhoutex]

The "remnants" of Ivan are actually a "peice" of Ivan that splitoff from the actual main body of Ivan that was moved out to sea from the Virginia area last week. This "remnant" has now moved SE, S, and SW to a point in the Eastern GOM. there is a small surface low associated with it and some say it could develop into another Tropical Storm or Hurricane as it moves West across the GOM towards TX under the strong ridge to it's North. Plenty of shear for it to fight right now in the area it is in but even NHC accknowledges that conditions for development could improve as it moves West. As usual we are in a wait and see situation with another possible tropical cyclone.

[Stephanie]

Thanks David! I didn't know where this piece of Ivan came from and where it split off.

[solarflare]

I'm in Jupiter too. 6 to 8" rain reported on noon news from this mess. We had one squall last night that really had the trees whipping and rain blowing in my open windows from every direction. Then quiet until it picked up again in the middle of the night. Still rainy and breezy now off and on.

[Air Force Met]

Thanks David! I didn't know where this piece of Ivan came from and where it split off.

The weather channel is occasionally showing a LONG (4 day) satallite loop of Ivan as it moved inland...then east...then as it split in two with a piece of it moving sw along the Carolina's.

It's not the sfc feauture that survived the trek...that feature sheared out NEward. IT is actually a piece of upper level energy that split into two right as it emerged off the NC/VA coasts...and that mid level vort max has worked its way down to the sfc.

[kevin]

Air Force Met, I think these little circulations are the best. What are your thoughts seeing it will probably be coming to Texas?

[Stephanie]

Thanks David! I didn't know where this piece of Ivan came from and where it split off.

The weather channel is occasionally showing a LONG (4 day) satallite loop of Ivan as it moved inland...then east...then as it split in two with a piece of it moving sw along the Carolina's.

It's not the sfc feauture that survived the trek...that feature sheared out NEward. IT is actually a piece of upper level energy that split into two right as it emerged off the NC/VA coasts...and that mid level vort max has worked its way down to the sfc.

Thanks! I'll have to see if they have a video of that available to view on their website.

[Portastorm]

The afternoon forecast discussion out of NWS New Orleans has a nice little write-up on this system. Basically, if it develops, it'll be close to the Texas coastline at or further west from 95 west.

MAIN FEATURE REMAINS THE RESIDUAL MCV FROM IVAN THAT IS MOVING AWAY
FROM THE LOWER FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT...IT SHOULD REMAIN AN OPEN
WAVE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
PRIOR TO REACHING ABOUT 95W.