Uh-Ohh...12z's what do you have in mind?

[DESTRUCTION5]

OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
THE GUNS CONSENSUS...SINCE THE GFS REMAINS AN EASTERN OUTLIER
MODEL. THE UKMET...GFDL...AND DEEP BAM MODELS ARE FASTER THAN AND
MORE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...BUT I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT
UNTIL THE 12Z MODELS...CONTAINING NEW UPPER-AIR DATA...COME IN
BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES.

[mascpa]

What about the FSU ensemble? does anyone know what it does with Jeanne?

[Steve]

Supposedly the FSU Superensemble brings Jeanne into the Gulf (Bastardi said it has for 3 straight runs). But he won't give any details. I posted a thread about it today, but didn't get any answers either. It's a curiosity thing.

Steve

[iluvseashore]

GULF???

[Brent]

GULF???

Yeah... you know the body of water just west of you?

[iluvseashore]

Yea, I know it. Just don't want anymore dang storms. I was actually thinking it was a possibility since we are getting late in the season but was hoping I was just worrying too much.

[hurricane1020]

through fla or around into the gulf?

[Innotech]

the gulf hasnt been overly visited this year. most stuff has ventured into florida..i wonder if our turn is coming or if we have dodged a hit this year.

[mascpa]

If its going into the Gulf, it must be through Florida. I can't see it dropping far enough south to go underneath the peninsula (and through the Keys).

[TS Zack]

Yea and who saw Betsy turning around and doing that.

[golter]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif

Not too much to hint a Jeanne entering Gulf, I think everyone has become a little gunshy and they are forecasting/predicting doom for Gulf (esp. W - Gulf) Right now we have 3 named storms and none of them are forecast to have an impact on US mainland at this time. I think we are getting ahead of ourselves with Ivan 2, Matthew, Lisa.... Right now we have been granted a short breather, lets enjoy it.

[PurdueWx80]

Supposedly the FSU Superensemble brings Jeanne into the Gulf (Bastardi said it has for 3 straight runs). But he won't give any details. I posted a thread about it today, but didn't get any answers either. It's a curiosity thing.

Steve

Uhhh..JB never said that the super secret prognostication was the FSU superensemble....at least not in today's post. Are you assuming that, or did you hear it somewhere else. I'm relatively certain he's referring to their in-house model, rather than some ensemble. The superensemble actually can't possibly bring Jeanne into the Gulf because no model out there (that is available publicly on the web) takes her there.

[Steve]

>>Uhhh..JB never said that the super secret prognostication was the FSU superensemble

He said it yesterday by reference, The double secret probation prog has it all the way into the central Gulf by next week. (I call it that, from the movie "Animal House" for those of you who have seen it. My question is, was the prog developed at that college with such a solution, and since it's something we see here only inhouse, that is why I use that term. It's just to get a smile, ok?)

And it was referenced some kind of way in the video as from a college or university. But now that you mention it, the "college" reference may simply have been to Animal House, though I came away thinking FSU.

Steve

[PurdueWx80]

Fair enough, I still doubt that he's referring to the FSU ensemble since it is based on most or every model solution - no model takes Jeanne to the Gulf, so it seems highly unlikely that an ensemble of every model would do this.

[Steve]

Purdue,

I found out from Clark over at CFHC that the FSU model does not move anything into the gulf (doesn't go out that far apparently). It must be an in-house accuweather model that he was referring to /my bad

Steve

[PurdueWx80]

Cool...glad to have that cleared up. Maybe Joe has some model from Penn State...he seems to still have close ties there.

[LSU2001]

Here is the exact quote from today's free forecast. Here in louisiana we don't much like references to betsy.

"The shadow of Betsy looms large in my mind here, and the worry is that it's history that will be the answer to the mystery of Jeanne's move. The double secret probation prog I see here has been insisting for three straight runs that Jeanne gets to the Gulf. My worry is that once a westward move starts, it starts harder and stronger than the models that keep it offshore, but just barely. So the call now is for the loop to be completed over the next 24-36 hours and a track toward the west to start tomorrow that brings it back to at least 75 west, perhaps to 80. For the sake of argument, I will take the storm to near 27.5 and 77.5 by Saturday morning. "

[Steve]

lsu2001,

I think the idea of Betsy is a looping storm that can't head out to sea. I don't think it's so much his feelings. He knew something (and I mentioned it actually prior to him) would be crossing the Gulf this week, just didn't know if it would be Ivan, Jeanne, son of Ivan, none of the above, both or all. 80W is some 600 miles east of us in New Orleans and even farther from you.

One word of caution though - the Ridge of the Atlantic Coast may not be in as much of a hurry as he thinks it will be to devolve. The NRL has Typhoon Meari cutting WNW toward Taiwan between the 25th and 26th. If this track verifies, that should mean the ridge holds or builds back in the 6-10 day (thereafter) time period.

Who knows with this pattern?

Steve

[BayouVenteux]

...80W is some 600 miles east of us in New Orleans and even farther from you.

C'mon Steve, it's only a mere 78 miles from the N.O. city hall to B.R. city hall!
Well...for most New Orleanians I know, it might as well be 7,800 miles.

P.S.: And it probably felt like 7,800 miles to many coming up I-10 this time last week.

[Steve]

lol. But to be sure, 678 is farther than 600

Touche'

Steve